Variations in the accuracy of gravity recovery due to ground track variability: GRACE,CHAMP, and GOCE

Following an earlier recognition of degraded monthly geopotential recovery from GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) due to prolonged passage through a short repeat (low order resonant) orbit, we extend these insights also to CHAMP (CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload) and GOCE (Gravity field and steady state Ocean Circulation Explorer). We show wide track-density variations over time for these orbits in both latitude and longitude, and estimate that geopotential recovery will be as widely affected as well within all these regimes, with lesser track density leading to poorer recoveries. We then use recent models of atmospheric density to estimate the future orbit of GRACE and warn of degraded performance as other low order resonances are encountered in GRACE’s free fall. Finally implications for the GOCE orbit are discussed.     

Compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period

This article provides an ex post analysis of the compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol during the first commitment period (2008–2012) based on the final data for national GHG emissions and exchanges in carbon units that became available at the end of 2015. On the domestic level, among the 36 countries that fully participated in the Kyoto Protocol, only nine countries emitted higher levels of GHGs than committed and therefore had to resort to flexibility mechanisms. On the international level – i.e. after the use of flexibility mechanisms – all Annex B Parties are in compliance. Countries implemented different compliance strategies: purchasing carbon units abroad, stimulating the domestic use of carbon credits by the private sector and incentivizing domestic emission reductions through climate policies.

Overall, the countries party to the Protocol surpassed their aggregate commitment by an average 2.4 GtCO₂e yr^–1. Of the possible explanations for this overachievement, ‘hot-air’ was estimated at 2.2 GtCO₂e yr^–1, while accounting rules for land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) further removed 0.4 GtCO₂e yr^–1 from the net result excluding LULUCF. The hypothetical participation of the US and Canada would have reduced this overachievement by a net 1 GtCO₂e yr^–1. None of these factors – some of which may be deemed illegitimate – would therefore on its own have led to global non-compliance, even without use of the 0.3 GtCO₂e of annual emissions reductions generated by the Clean Development Mechanism. The impact of domestic policies and ‘carbon leakage’ – neither of which is quantitatively assessed here – should not be neglected either.

Policy relevance

Given the ongoing evolution of the international climate regime and the adoption of the Paris Agreement in December 2015, we believe that there is a need to evaluate the results of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. To our knowledge there has been no overarching quantitative ex post assessment of the Kyoto Protocol based on the final emissions data for 2008–2012, which became available in late 2015. This article attempts to fill this gap, focusing on the domestic and international compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period.     

Source parameters of some large earthquakes in Northern Aegean determined by body waveform inversion

Average source parameters for three large North Aegean events are obtained from body wave inversion for the moment tensor. The parameters for the events are as follows: The events exhibit dextral strike-slip faulting with theT axis striking NS and nearly horizontal, implying extension in this direction. The focal mechanisms obtained are in agreement with the seismotectonic regime of the North Aegean. It is known that the region is tectonically controlled by the existence of the strike-slip Anatolian fault and its westward continuation in the Aegean, as well as the NS extension the whole Aegean area undergoes.The components of the moment tensor show that the region is dominated by compression in the EW direction which is encompassed by extension in the NS direction. All the events were found to be shallow (10 km) with a source time function of approximately 8 s duration and small stress drop values.The teleseismic long period verticalP-waves exhibited distortions, that could be attributed to lateral inhomogeneities in the source structure or more probably to a nonflat water-crust interface.     

Volcanic particles in agriculture and gardening

Volcanic pyroclasts of small size, such as lapilli and small pumice stones, are widely used in agriculture, gardening, and for pot plants as natural inorganic mulch. The technique of using pyroclasts to enhance topsoil stems from the eighteenth century, and specifically from the ad 1730–1736 eruption on Lanzarote. Critical observations on plant development during and after the eruption showed that the vegetation died when buried under a thick layer of lapilli, but grew vigorously when covered thinly. While the agriculture of Lanzarote was restricted to cereals before the eruption, it diversified to many kinds of fruit and vegetables afterwards, including the production of the famous Malvasía wines in the Canaries. The population of Lanzarote doubled in the years after the eruption, from about 5000 in 1730 to near 10 000 in 1768, predominantly as a result of the higher agricultural productivity. This outcome led to widespread use of lapilli and pumice fragments throughout the islands and eventually the rest of the globe. Lapilli and pumice provide vesicle space for moisture to be retained longer within the planting soil, which can create an environment for micro‐bacteria to thrive in. Through this route, nutrients from volcanic matter are transported into the surrounding soil where they become available to plant life. The detailed processes that operate within the pyroclasts are less well understood, such as the breakdown of nutrients from the rock matrix and transport into the soil by biological action. Further studies promise significant potential to optimize future agricultural efforts, particularly in otherwise arid areas of the globe.     

A tephrostratigraphic record for the last glacial–interglacial cycle from Lake Ohrid,Albania and Macedonia

Here we present a tephrostratigraphic record (core Co1202) recovered from the northeastern part of Lake Ohrid (Republics of Macedonia and Albania) reaching back to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6. Overall ten horizons (OT0702‐1 to OT0702‐10) containing volcanic tephra have been recognised throughout the 14.94 m long sediment succession. Four tephra layers were visible at macroscopic inspection (OT0702‐4, OT0702‐6, OT0702‐8 and OT0702‐9), while the remaining six are cryptotephras (OT0702‐1, OT0702‐2, OT0702‐3, OT0702‐5, OT0702‐7 and OT0702‐10) identified from peaks in K, Zr and Sr intensities, magnetic susceptibility measurements, and washing and sieving of the sediments. Glass shards of tephra layers and cryptotephras were analysed with respect to their major element composition, and correlated to explosive eruptions of Italian volcanoes. The stratigraphy and the major element composition of tephra layers and cryptotephras allowed the correlation of OT0702‐1 to AD 472 or AD 512 eruptions of Somma‐Vesuvius, OT0702‐2 to the FL eruption of Mount Etna, OT0702‐3 to the Mercato from Somma‐Vesuvius, OT0702‐4 to SMP1‐e/Y‐3 eruption from the Campi Flegrei caldera, OT0702‐5 to the Codola eruption (Somma‐Vesuvius or Campi Flegrei), OT0702‐6 to the Campanian Ignimbrite/Y‐5 from the Campi Flegrei caldera, OT0702‐7 to the Green Tuff/Y‐6 eruption from Pantelleria Island, OT0702‐8 to the X‐5 eruption probably originating from the Campi Flegrei caldera, OT0702‐9 to the X‐6 eruption of generic Campanian origin, and OT0702‐10 to the P‐11 eruption from Pantelleria Island. The fairly well‐known ages of these tephra layers and parent eruptions provide new data on the dispersal and deposition of these tephras and, furthermore, allow the establishment of a chronological framework for core Co1202 for a first interpretation of major sedimentological changes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multiproxy record of late Holocene natural and anthropogenic environmental change from the Sphagnum peat bog Dürres Maar,Germany: implications for quantitative climate reconstructions based on pollen

Pollen data are well established for quantitative climate reconstructions over long timescales, including the Holocene and older interglacials. However, anthropogenically induced environmental change in central Europe was strong during the last 4 ka, challenging quantitative reconstructions of this time period. Here we present quantitative climate reconstructions based on pollen analyses and evaluate them with the peat humification record and the stable carbon isotopes of Sphagnum plant material (δ¹³C_cellulose). All analyses were carried out on the same 7.5 m long, largely ombrotrophic peat bog section from Dürres Maar. Three different methods were used for the quantitative climate reconstructions on the basis of the pollen data: (1) a probabilistic indicator taxa approach (the ‘pdf method’); (2) a modern analogue technique based on pollen taxa from modern surface samples (cMAT); and (3) a modern analogue technique expanded by plant functional types (pMAT). At Dürres Maar the peat humification is only affected by peat cutting during the Roman period and the Middle Ages. The stable carbon isotopes are seemingly unaffected by human impact. Thus both proxies provide independent data to evaluate the reconstructions on the basis of pollen data. The quantitative climate reconstructions on the basis of the individual methods are in general relatively similar. Nevertheless, distinct differences between the individual approaches are also apparent, which could be attributed to taxa that reflect human impact on a local to regional scale. While the pdf method appears to be relatively robust to all observed anthropogenically induced vegetation changes, it potentially underestimates climate variability. This method is therefore expected to be independent of local site characteristics and to provide robust quantitative estimates of climatic trends rather than of climatic variability of small amplitude. This is of value for palaeoclimate reconstructions of older interglacials, for which neither multiple sites nor independent climate proxies are available for comparison. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Holocene environmental history in high‐Arctic North Greenland revealed by a combined biomarker and macrofossil approach

In this study, we use a combined biomarker and macrofossil approach to reconstruct the Holocene climate history recorded in Trifna Sø, Skallingen area, eastern North Greenland. Chronological information is derived from comparison of lithological, biogeochemical and macrofossil characteristics with a well‐dated record from nearby Lille Sneha Sø. Following local deglaciation around c. 8 cal. ka BP, the local peak warmth occurred between c. 7.4 and 6.2 cal. ka BP as indicated by maximum macrofossil abundances of warmth‐demanding plants (Salix arctica and Dryas integrifolia) and invertebrates (Daphnia pulex and Chironomidae). Warm conditions were dominated by terrestrial organic matter (OM) sedimentation as implied by the alkane‐based P_aq ratio, but increased aquatic productivity is indicated when temperature was highest around 6.5 cal. ka BP. The n‐C₂₉/n‐C₃₁ alkane ratio shows that vegetation in the catchment was dominated by shrubs after deglaciation, but shifted towards relatively more grassy/herbaceous vegetation during peak warmth. After 5.4 cal. ka BP, the disappearance of warmth‐demanding plant and invertebrate macrofossils indicates cooling in the Skallingen area. This cooling was characterized by a significant shift towards dominance of aquatic OM sedimentation in Trifna Sø as implied by high P_aq ratios. Cooling was also associated with a shift in vegetation type from dwarf‐shrub heaths towards relatively more herbaceous vegetation in the catchment, stronger erosion and more oligotrophic conditions in the lake. Our data show that mean air temperatures inferred using branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) do not seem to accurately reflect the local climatic history. Irrespective of calibration, methylation of branched tetraethers (MBT) palaeothermometry cannot be reconciled with the macrofossil evidence and seems to be biased by either changing brGDGT sources (in situ vs. soil‐derived) or changing species assemblages and/or an unknown physiological response to changing environmental conditions at high latitude.