La prévision du climat : de l'échelle saisonnière à l'échelle décennale

The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.     

Construction and analysis of higher order finite difference schemes for the 1D wave equation

In this article, we propose to: 1. Establish most of the properties conjectured in [2] about the higher order finite difference approximation of the 1D Laplace operator. 2. Generalize to any order the fourth-order accurate scheme in space and time of Shubin and Bell [20] and Cohen [6]. For this new family of 2m–2m schemes, we establish, via elementary mathematics, various stability and dispersion results that are helpful to compare these schemes to the 2–2m schemes of Anné et al. [2]. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions

In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region. The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence the model performance within the region of the structure, but also other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds; and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation of uncertainty bounds.     

DEVEX-disdrometer evaluation experiment: Basic results and implications for hydrologic studies

Increasing our understanding of the small scale variability of drop size distributions (DSD), and therefore of several bulk characteristics of rainfall processes, has major implications for our interpretation of the remote sensing based estimates of precipitation and its uncertainty. During the spring and summer of 2002 the authors conducted the DEVEX experiment (disdrometer evaluation experiment) to compare measurements of natural rain made with three different types of disdrometers collocated at the Iowa City Municipal Airport in Iowa City, Iowa in the Midwestern United States. This paper focuses on the evaluation of the instruments rather than analysis of the hydrometeorological aspects of the observed events. The comparison demonstrates discrepancies between instruments. The authors discuss the systematic and random effects in terms of rainfall quantities, drop size distribution properties, and the observed drop size vs. velocity relationships. Since the instruments were collocated, the effects of the natural variability of rain are reduced some with time integration, isolating the instrumental differences. The authors discuss the status of DSD measurement technologies and the implications for a range of hydrologic applications from remote sensing of rainfall to atmospheric deposition to soil erosion and sediment transport in the environment. The data set collected during the DEVEX experiment is made available to the research community.     

Rainfall and the 6–9 day wave-like disturbance in West-Africa during summer 1989

Summary Using ECMWF analyses and daily rain amounts of 569 stations in Western Africa for summer 1989, the study documents the composite structure of the 6–9 day oscillation and its influence on rain. Rain is modulated by vorticity as displayed in the wave composite. There are rainfall maxima coincident with cyclonic vorticity and rainfall minima coincident with anticyclonic vorticity at the 700hPa level, at 17.5°N and 7.5°N.With 6 Figures     

Nitrogen isotopes in the recent solar wind from the analysis of Genesis targets: Evidence for large scale isotope heterogeneity in the early solar system

We have analyzed nitrogen, neon and argon abundances and isotopic ratios in target material exposed in space for 27 months to solar wind (SW) irradiation during the Genesis mission. SW ions were extracted by sequential UV (193 nm) laser ablation of gold-plated material, purified separately in a dedicated line, and analyzed by gas source static mass spectrometry. We analyzed gold-covered stainless steel pieces from the Concentrator, a device that concentrated SW ions by a factor of up to 50. Despite extensive terrestrial N contamination, we could identify a non-terrestrial, ¹⁵N-depleted nitrogen end-member that points to a 40% depletion of ¹⁵N in solar-wind N relative to inner planets and meteorites, and define a composition for the present-day Sun (¹⁵N/¹⁴N = [2.26 ± 0.67] × 10⁻³, 2σ), which is indistinguishable from that of Jupiter’s atmosphere. These results indicate that the isotopic composition of nitrogen in the outer convective zone of the Sun has not changed through time, and is representative of the protosolar nebula. Large ¹⁵N enrichments due to e.g., irradiation, low temperature isotopic exchange, or contributions from ¹⁵N-rich presolar components, are therefore required to account for inner planet values.     

Late Pliocene to Early Quaternary extensional detachment in the La Paz–El Cabo area (Baja California Sur, Mexico): implications on the opening of the Gulf of California and the mechanics of oblique rifting

We demonstrate that Pliocene to Early Quaternary sedimentary formations in Baja California Sur (Mexico) were deposited syn-tectonically over a major detachment associated with the exhumation of Mesozoic crust. The detachment dips to the ENE and is associated with E–W stretching. This large extensional structure strikes almost parallel to the general trend of the Gulf of California and extension is oblique to the East-Pacific seafloor-spreading direction. Crustal-scale stretching in this area was still active after the beginning of seafloor spreading c.  3.6 Ma ago. The detachment is capped by Late Pleistocene–Holocene alluvial sediments the deposition of which seems to be partly syn-tectonic and controlled by minor stretching subparallel to the present-day North American–Pacific kinematic vector. We discuss the implications of our observations on strain partitioning during opening of the California Gulf as well as on the structure of the Gulf of California margin.     

Solving 3D boundary element problems using constrained iterative approach

Some major challenges for geophysicists and structural geologists using three-dimensional boundary element method codes (3D-BEM) are: (1) reducing the amount of memory required to solve large and dense systems and (2) incorporation of inequality constraints such as traction inequality constraints (TIC) and displacement inequality constraints (DIC). The latter serves two purposes. First, for example, inequality constraints can be used to simulate frictional slip (using TIC). Second, these constraints can prevent element interpenetration while allowing opening mode (using DIC). We have developed a method that simultaneously incorporates both types of functionality of the inequality constraints. We show that the use of an appropriate iterative solver not only avoids the allocation of significant memory for solving the system (allowing very large model computation and simplifying parallelization on multi-core processors), but also admits interesting features such as natural incorporation of TICs and DICs. Compared to other techniques of contact management (e.g., Lagrange multipliers, penalty method, or complementarity problem), this new simple methodology, which does not use any incremental trial-and-error procedures, brings more flexibility, while making the system more stable and less subject to round-off errors without any computational overhead. We provide validations and comparisons of the inequality constraints implementation using 2D analytical and numerical solutions.     

An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies

This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM) and its four component models(atmosphere,land surface,ocean,and sea ice).Two recent versions are described:BCC-CSM1.1 with coarse resolution(approximately 2.8125°×2.8125°) and BCC-CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution(approximately 1.125°×1.125°).Both versions are fully coupled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation.Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO_2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed.Simulations using these two versions of the BCC-CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five(CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report(AR5).These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections.Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) are presented and validated,with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales.Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed.Both BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models.Preliminary analyses indicate that the higher resolution in BCC-CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC-CSMl.l,particularly on regional scales.