Triggering of El Niño by westerly wind events in a coupled general circulation model

Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Niño event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a ten-members ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El Niño warming as described above, four others display a moderate warming and two remains in neutral conditions. This diversity between the members appears to be due to the internal atmospheric variability during and following the inserted WWE. In the four moderate warm cases, the warm-pool is initially shifted eastward following the inserted WWE, but the subsequent weak WWE activity (when compared to the strong warming cases) prevents to further shift the warm-pool eastwards. The seasonal strengthening of trade winds in June–July can therefore act to shift warm waters back into the western Pacific, reducing the central-eastern Pacific warming. This strong sensitivity of the coupled response to WWEs may therefore limit the predictability of El Niño events, as the high frequency wind variability over the warm pool region remains largely unpredictable even at short time lead.     

Assessing market and non-market costs of freshwater flooding due to climate change in the community of Fredericton, Eastern Canada

There is a general consensus that climate change will increase the frequency and severity of freshwater flooding in many parts of the world. Communities prone to such flooding have struggled to understand the manner in which this will affect them (in both economic and social terms) and the appropriate way to adapt. In this study, we conduct a case-study investigation into the costs of freshwater flooding due to climate change along the Saint John River in Fredericton, NB, Canada. We develop a four-step framework that combines extreme event analysis, downscaled general circulation models, hydrologic analysis, and the contingent valuation method. Using this framework, together with primary data on a 2005 flooding event, we estimate market and non-market annual average flood damage under a number of climate and population scenarios. We find that non-market costs can represent up to 50% of total household costs of flooding events, and 23–42% of the total costs of flooding due to climate change, depending on the different climate and population scenarios considered. Incorporating such costs into flood adaptation planning may substantially increase support for active adaptation activities, especially in ‘worst case’ climate scenarios.     

Radio-continuum study of the Nearby sculptor group galaxies. Part 1: NGC 300 at λ=20 cm

A series of new radio-continuum (λ=20 cm) mosaic images focused on the NGC?300 galactic system were produced using archived observational data from the VLA and/or ATCA. These new images are both very sensitive (rms?=60 μJy) and feature high angular resolution (<10?″). The most prominent new feature is the galaxy’s extended radio-continuum emission, which does not match its optical appearance. Using these newly created images a number of previously unidentified discrete sources have been discovered. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a joint deconvolution approach to imaging this complete data-set is inferior when compared to an immerge approach.     

Assessing the hydrological and geomorphic behaviour of a landscape evolution model within a limits-of-acceptability uncertainty analysis framework

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) have the capability to characterize key aspects of geomorphological and hydrological processes. However, their usefulness is hindered by model equifinality and paucity of available calibration data. Estimating uncertainty in the parameter space and resultant model predictions is rarely achieved as this is computationally intensive and the uncertainties inherent in the observed data are large. Therefore, a limits-of-acceptability (LoA) uncertainty analysis approach was adopted in this study to assess the value of uncertain hydrological and geomorphic data. These were used to constrain simulations of catchment responses and to explore the parameter uncertainty in model predictions. We applied this approach to the River Derwent and Cocker catchments in the UK using a LEM CAESAR-Lisflood. Results show that the model was generally able to produce behavioural simulations within the uncertainty limits of the streamflow. Reliability metrics ranged from 24.4% to 41.2% and captured the high-magnitude low-frequency sediment events. Since different sets of behavioural simulations were found across different parts of the catchment, evaluating LEM performance, in quantifying and assessing both at-a-point behaviour and spatial catchment response, remains a challenge. Our results show that evaluating LEMs within uncertainty analyses framework while taking into account the varying quality of different observations constrains behavioural simulations and parameter distributions and is a step towards a full-ensemble uncertainty evaluation of such models. We believe that this approach will have benefits for reflecting uncertainties in flooding events where channel morphological changes are occurring and various diverse (and yet often sparse) data have been collected over such events.     

Developing and Sequencing Community Engagement and Experiential Education: A Case Study of Urban Geography Teaching and Research

Community engagement curricula and course design can provide substantial experiences for both community members and participating students. Using a case study approach, this research focuses on four steps in this process: initial community relationship forming, engaging in community service, transitioning to civic engagement, and developing a community-based research program. Narrative examples from student course evaluations position these community-based experiences as transformative for multiple parties. Institutional structures are presented as helpful entrees to engagement for students, while noting that community relationships provide contextualized, powerful, and meaningful relationships, supporting recommendations for emerging and existing community engagement programs.     

Petrography and geochemistry of manganiferous rocks in the Mankwadzi area in the southern Kibi‐Winneba metavolcanic belt,Ghana: Implications for genesis of Mn formations in the Birimian of West Africa

Manganiferous rocks in the Mankwadzi area in the southernmost portion of the Kibi‐Winneba metavolcanic belt, one of several Mn occurrences in the Paleoproterozoic Birimian of Ghana, are hosted in hornblende schist and amphibolite. These rocks are, in places, intruded by hornblende dyke. In outcrop, the manganiferous rocks appear to be conformable with the host schist and amphibolite, are macroscopically dark, fine‐grained and structurally massive to distinctly banded. Observed alternating light and dark occasionally macro‐folded bands suggest post‐depositional deformation of both light and dark bands. Microscopic observations revealed that the light bands are dominantly Si‐rich and the dark bands mainly of opaque minerals. Whole rock analyses of the manganiferous rocks show high contents of MnO (16.75–27.4 wt%) suggesting that the opaque minerals are likely rich in Mn. The analyzed rock samples show moderate to strong enrichments in light rare earth elements compared to heavy rare earth elements. Whereas the manganiferous rocks show perceptibly negative Eu anomaly, host hornblende schist and hornblende dyke do not. Eu anomaly in amphibolite samples is, however, uncertain as the three samples analyzed gave positive, negative and no Eu anomalies. Based on the field characteristics, microscopic and geochemical features, we suggest that the Mn occurrence in the Mankwadzi area originated via sedimentary deposition and was later modified by metamorphism, hydrothermal and/or supergene processes similar to manganiferous occurrences at Nsuta and Tambao in the Birimian of West Africa.     

Hydraulic Performance of the Horizontal Reactive Media Treatment Well: Pilot and Numerical Study

This study is focused on a passive treatment system known as the horizontal reactive treatment well (HRX Well®) installed parallel to groundwater flow, which operates on the principle of flow focusing that results from the hydraulic conductivity (K) ratio of the well and aquifer media. Passive flow and capture in the HRX Well are described by simplified equations adapted from Darcy's Law. A field pilot-scale study (PSS) and numerical simulations using a finite element method (FEM) were conducted to verify the HRX Well concept and test the validity of the HRX Well-simplified equations. The hydraulic performance results from both studies were observed to be within a close agreement to the simplified equations and their hydraulic capture width approximately five times greater than the well diameter (0.20 m). Key parameters affecting capture included the aquifer thickness, well diameter, and permeability ratio of the HRX Well treatment media and aquifer material. During pilot testing, the HRX Well captured 39% of flow while representing 0.5% of the test pit cross-sectional volume, indicating that the well captures a substantial amount of surrounding groundwater. While uncertainty in the aquifer and well properties (porosity, K, well losses), including the effects of boundary conditions, may have caused minor differences in the results, data from this study indicate that the simplified equations are valid for the conceptual design of a field study. A full-scale HRX Well was installed at Site SS003 at Vanderberg Air Force Base, California, in July/August 2018 based on outcomes from this study.