六合体应变干扰因素与地震短临异常特征研究

利用江苏省南京市六合地震台钻孔体应变2003年1月1日至2008年12月31日的数字化观测资料,对气压和降雨这二种主要干扰因素的基本变化规律进行分析,讨论了发生在该台预报效能范围内的3次中强地震的短临异常特征.结果表明:气压变化在各个季节对观测值均有较大的影响,以短周期的正相关干扰影响为主,在时间上往往表现为准同步,相关系数能达到0.6～0.7以上;降雨对体应变的影响与降雨过程、降雨量及降雨时间等有密切的关系,持续降雨只有积累到一定程度才能促成固体潮畸变,这一过程虽较复杂,但仍有一定的规律可循.六合体应变对区域内中强地震有1～2月的突出短临异常变化.     

Shear wave crustal velocity model of the Western Bohemian Massif from Love wave phase velocity dispersion

We propose a new quantitative determination of shear wave velocities for distinct geological units in the Bohemian Massif, Czech Republic (Central Europe). The phase velocities of fundamental Love wave modes are measured along two long profiles (~200 km) crossing three major geological units and one rift-like structure of the studied region. We have developed a modified version of the classical multiple filtering technique for the frequency-time analysis and we apply it to two-station phase velocity estimation. Tests of both the analysis and inversion are provided. Seismograms of three Aegean Sea earthquakes are analyzed. One of the two profiles is further divided into four shorter sub-profiles. The long profiles yield smooth dispersion curves; while the curves of the sub-profiles have complicated shapes. Dispersion curve undulations are interpreted as period-dependent apparent velocity anomalies caused both by different backazimuths of surface wave propagation and by surface wave mode coupling. An appropriate backazimuth of propagation is found for each period, and the dispersion curves are corrected for this true propagation direction. Both the curves for the long and short profiles are inverted for a 1D shear wave velocity model of the crust. Subsurface shear wave velocities are found to be around 2.9 km/s for all four studied sub-profiles. Two of the profiles crossing the older Moldanubian and Teplá-Barrandian units are characterized by higher velocities of 3.8 km/s in the upper crust while for the Saxothuringian unit we find the velocity slightly lower, around 3.6 km/s at the same depths. We obtain an indication of a shear wave low velocity zone above Moho in the Moldanubian and Teplá-Barrandian units. The area of the Eger Rift (Teplá-Barrandian–Saxothuringian unit contact) is significantly different from all other three units. Low upper crust velocities suggest sedimentary and volcanic filling of the rift as well as fluid activity causing the earthquake swarms. Higher velocities in the lower crust together with weak or even missing Moho implies the upper mantle updoming.     

Wet and dry spell analysis of Global Climate Model-generated precipitation using power laws and wavelet transforms

Climate model simulations for the twenty-first century point toward changing characteristics of precipitation. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on precipitation in the Kansabati River basin in India. A downscaling method, based on Bayesian Neural Network (BNN), is applied to project precipitation generated from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) using two scenarios (A2 and B2). Wet and dry spell properties of monthly precipitation series at five meteorologic stations in the Kansabati basin are examined by plotting successive wet and dry durations (in months) against their number of occurrences on a double-logarithmic paper. Straight-line relationships on such graphs show that power laws govern the pattern of successive persistent wet and dry monthly spells. Comparison of power-law behaviors provides useful interpretation about the temporal precipitation pattern. The impact of low-frequency precipitation variability on the characteristics of wet and dry spells is also evaluated using continuous wavelet transforms. It is found that inter-annual cycles play an important role in the formation of wet and dry spells.     

甘肃古浪长岭山北麓断裂新活动特征与地震危险性

通过野外调查和探槽开挖,并结合b值计算结果,对位于甘肃省中部古浪县的长岭山北麓断层的几何学、运动学特征、活动性分段及地震危险性进行了研究.研究认为长岭山北麓断裂主要由四条断层组成,总体呈反“S”形展布;断层最新活动在西段f1表现为倾向南的左旋正断性质,在西段f2和中段f3表现为向北倾的左旋正断性质,东段f4又转变为倾向南的左旋正断活动性质,断裂西端以秦家大山南北向隆起及第三系褶皱与古浪断裂隔断,东端以白墩子左旋拉张盆地与罐罐岭断裂左阶排列,阶距3.5 km;断裂带全新世早中期以来有过地震活动,最后一次活动离逝时间较长,现代应力积累较快,为未来地震危险区.     

青藏高原北部地区地震基本活动状态定量评价

基于区域构造背景、应力场状态及动力学环境等,将青藏高原北部地区划分为4个相对独立的统计单元,即祁连山地震带、甘东南地区、柴达木一共和地块及库玛地震带.通过地震频度和b值拟合确定了各个地区不同下限震级的地震目录完整性起始时间;确定了各构造单元中强以上地震活跃与平静交替活动的特征;定量计算了在平均状态中强以上地震活动特征参数及平静阶段与活跃阶段地震活动特征参数;分别获得了各个区域在平均、活跃与平静状态下的小震活动状态参数.     

基于MATLAB神经网络方法的多层砖房震害预测

提出利用MATLAB人工神经网络工具箱建立基于贝叶斯正则算法的BP神经网络模型,以地震区多层砖房震害调查数据为因子的震害预测方法.神经网络模型输入震害因子包括建筑的层数、施工质量、房屋整体性等,输出值为建筑物在地震作用下的破坏程度.结果表明,本方法可以对多层砖房的震害样本进行预测并达到较理想的效果.     

兰州观象台存放台阵汶川M_S8.0强震动记录与分析

兰州观象台存放台阵在汶川特大地震中获取了10组三分量数字强震动加速度记录.本文依据这些实际观测资料研究了黄土场地在地震发生后的自由场地面运动加速度过程及其特征.结果表明在震源、场地和震中距相同情况下,场地上不同测点记录的加速度峰值存在一定程度的差异,较明显地反映了场地地形对EW分向地面自由场加速度的影响.10个测点的峰值加速度(PGA)均显示EW向大于NS向,而垂直向最小;各测点的傅里叶谱值,尤其是在小于1 Hz频段范围内,差异极小.     

中国台湾地区与大陆西北地区地震活动对应性探讨

中国台湾地区和大陆西北地区都是破坏性地震活动发生较为频繁的地区.应用数理统计的方法对这两个地区100年来破坏性地震活动的对应关系进行探讨,当台湾地区发生6级以上地震活动后两年内,大陆西北也发生6级以上地震的概率为95.08%;两地7级以上地震活动时间间隔的置信度为90%的区间估计都为2～4年;通过对两地7级以上地震活动时间间隔的相关性分析,可以看出无显著性差异.     

Lateral stiffness estimation in frames and its implementation to continuum models for linear and nonlinear static analysis

Continuum model is a useful tool for approximate analysis of tall structures including moment-resisting frames and shear wall-frame systems. In continuum model, discrete buildings are simplified such that their overall behavior is described through the contributions of flexural and shear stiffnesses at the story levels. Therefore, accurate determination of these lateral stiffness components constitutes one of the major issues in establishing reliable continuum models even if the proposed solution is an approximation to actual structural behavior. This study first examines the previous literature on the calculation of lateral stiffness components (i.e. flexural and shear stiffnesses) through comparisons with exact results obtained from discrete models. A new methodology for adapting the heightwise variation of lateral stiffness to continuum model is presented based on these comparisons. The proposed methodology is then extended for estimating the nonlinear global capacity of moment resisting frames. The verifications that compare the nonlinear behavior of real systems with those estimated from the proposed procedure suggest its effective use for the performance assessment of large building stocks that exhibit similar structural features. This conclusion is further justified by comparing nonlinear response history analyses of single-degree-of-freedom (sdof) systems that are obtained from the global capacity curves of actual systems and their approximations computed by the proposed procedure.