Polystyrene spherules in the Bristol Channel

Small polystyrene beads are becoming a common component of the plankton in certain areas. They are derived from the effluents of polystyrene manufacturers.     

The Ms = 6.2, June 15, 1995 Aigion earthquake (Greece): evidence for low angle normal faulting in the Corinth rift

We present the results of a multidisciplinary study of the M_s = 6.2, 1995, June 15, Aigion earthquake (Gulf of Corinth, Greece). In order to constrain the rupture geometry, we used all available data from seismology (local, regional and teleseismic records of the mainshock and of aftershocks), geodesy (GPS and SAR interferometry), and tectonics. Part of these data were obtained during a postseismic field study consisting of the surveying of 24 GPS points, the temporary installation of 20 digital seismometers, and a detailed field investigation for surface fault break. The Aigion fault was the only fault onland which showed detectable breaks (< 4 cm). We relocated the mainshock hypocenter at 10 km in depth, 38 ° 21.7 N, 22 ° 12.0 E, about 15 km NNE to the damaged city of Aigion. The modeling of teleseismic P and SH waves provides a seismic moment M_o = 3.4 10¹⁸ N.m, a well constrained focal mechanism (strike 277 °, dip 33 °, rake – 77°), at a centroidal depth of 7.2 km, consistent with the NEIC and the revised Harvard determinations. It thus involved almost pure normal faulting in agreement with the tectonics of the Gulf. The horizontal GPS displacements corrected for the opening of the gulf (1.5 cm/year) show a well-resolved 7 cm northward motion above the hypocenter, which eliminates the possibility of a steep, south-dipping fault plane. Fitting the S-wave polarization at SERG, 10 km from the epicenter, with a 33° northward dipping plane implies a hypocentral depth greater than 10 km. The north dipping fault plane provides a poor fit to the GPS data at the southern points when a homogeneous elastic half-space is considered: the best fit geodetic model is obtained for a fault shallower by 2 km, assuming the same dip. We show with a two-dimensional model that this depth difference is probably due to the distorting effect of the shallow, low-rigidity sediments of the gulf and of its edges. The best-fit fault model, with dimensions 9 km E–W and 15 km along dip, and a 0.87 m uniform slip, fits InSAR data covering the time of the earthquake. The fault is located about 10 km east-northeast to the Aigion fault, whose surface breaks thus appears as secondary features. The rupture lasted 4 to 5 s, propagating southward and upward on a fault probably outcropping offshore, near the southern edge of the gulf. In the shallowest 4 km, the slip – if any – has not exceeded about 30 cm. This geometry implies a large directivity effect in Aigion, in agreement with the accelerogram aig which shows a short duration (2 s) and a large amplitude (0.5 g) of the direct S acceleration. This unusual low-angle normal faulting may have been favoured by a low-friction, high pore pressure fault zone, or by a rotation of the stress directions due to the possible dip towards the south of the brittle-ductile transition zone. This fault cannot be responsible for the long term topography of the rift, which is controlled by larger normal faults with larger dip angles, implying either a seldom, or a more recently started activity of such low angle faults in the central part of the rift.     

Subsurface offset behaviour in velocity analysis with extended reflectivity images

Migration velocity analysis with the constant‐density acoustic wave equation can be accomplished by the focusing of extended migration images, obtained by introducing a subsurface shift in the imaging condition. A reflector in a wrong velocity model will show up as a curve in the extended image. In the correct model, it should collapse to a point. The usual approach to obtain a focused image involves a cost functional that penalizes energy in the extended image at non‐zero shift. Its minimization by a gradient‐based method should then produce the correct velocity model. Here, asymptotic analysis and numerical examples show that this method may be too sensitive to amplitude peaks at large shifts at the wrong depth and to artefacts. A more robust alternative is proposed that can be interpreted as a generalization of stack power and maximizes the energy at zero‐subsurface shift. A real‐data example is included.     

Sensitivity of the regional climate model RegCM4.2 to planetary boundary layer parameterisation

This study investigates the performance of two planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisations in the regional climate model RegCM4.2 with specific focus on the recently implemented prognostic turbulent kinetic energy parameterisation scheme: the University of Washington (UW) scheme. When compared with the default Holtslag scheme, the UW scheme, in the 10-year experiments over the European domain, shows a substantial cooling. It reduces winter warm bias over the north-eastern Europe by 2 °C and reduces summer warm bias over central Europe by 3 °C. A part of the detected cooling is ascribed to a general reduction in lower tropospheric eddy heat diffusivity with the UW scheme. While differences in temperature tendency due to PBL schemes are mostly localized to the lower troposphere, the schemes show a much higher diversity in how vertical turbulent mixing of the water vapour mixing ratio is governed. Differences in the water vapour mixing ratio tendency due to the PBL scheme are present almost throughout the troposphere. However, they alone cannot explain the overall water vapour mixing ratio profiles, suggesting strong interaction between the PBL and other model parameterisations. An additional 18-member ensemble with the UW scheme is made, where two formulations of the master turbulent length scale in unstable conditions are tested and unconstrained parameters associated with (a) the evaporative enhancement of the cloud-top entrainment and (b) the formulation of the master turbulent length scale in stable conditions are systematically perturbed. These experiments suggest that the master turbulent length scale in the UW scheme could be further refined in the current implementation in the RegCM model. It was also found that the UW scheme is less sensitive to the variations of the other two selected unconstrained parameters, supporting the choice of these parameters in the default formulation of the UW scheme.     

Response to comment by Keith Beven on “Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?”

In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.     

On the estimation of accuracy for global models of gravitational field of the earth

The methods and techniques for estimating the accuracy of global models of the Earth’s gravity field in the form of spherical harmonic expansion of the geopotential are analyzed. Various methods for obtaining the a priori and a posteriori estimates for the accuracy are considered and classified. The application of different approaches is illustrated by numerical examples for nine models, including those recently developed using the modern methods of space geodesy. The basic requirements for the database and software for estimating the accuracy are formulated.     

Tibetan immigrants in India

"This paper documents the current evidence of the state of the Tibetan society in India with special reference to the trends in social transformation, livelihood patterns and cultural adaptation to a geographically alien environment....Three-and-a-half decades of living in India [have] demonstrated how a culture group can survive by carving out ecological niches in ethnically segregated social space and yet adapt to a new cultural environment without losing its identity."     

THE STUDY OF DEFORESTATION PROCESSES WITH SPACE IMAGES OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GDR

The use of intermediate-scale space imagery in the analysis of current and ancient deforestation is exemplified by a case study in the southwestern quarter of East Germany, an area heavily deforested as a result of mining and agricultural activities. More specifically a mosaic of 1:1,000,000-scale Landsat imagery was used to compile a series of maps (of modern landscapes, forests, land use), the comparison of which provided an inventory of the causes and extent of deforestation over the study area. This in turn permitted linkages between losses of forest cover and other environmental problems to be identified. Translated by Jay K. Mitchell, PlanEcon Inc., Washington, DC 20005 from: Geografiya i prirodnyye resursy, 1988, No. 1, pp. 165-173.     

Aquatic surface microlayer contamination in chesapeake bay

The aquatic surface microlayer (SMIC), 50 μm thick, serves as a concentration point for metal and organic contaminants that have low water solubility or are associated with floatable particles. Also, the eggs and larvae of many fish and shellfish species float on, or come in contact with, the water surface throughout their early development. The objectives of this study were (1) to determine the present degree of aquatic surface microlayer pollution at selected sites in Chesapeake Bay, and (2) to provide a preliminary evaluation of sources contributing to any observed contamination.Twelve stations located in urban bays, major rivers, and the north central bay were sampled three times, each at 5-day intervals during May 1986. Samples of 1.4–4.1 each were collected from the upper 30–60-μm water surface (surface microlayer, SMIC) using a Teflon-coated rotating drum microlayer sampler. One sample of subsurface water was collected in the central bay.At all stations, concentrations of metals, alkanes, and aromatic hydrocarbons in the SMIC were high compared with one bulk-water sample and with typical concentrations in water of Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere. SMIC contamination varied greatly among the three sampling times, but high mean contaminant levels (total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, 1.9–6.2 μg 1⁻¹; Pb, 4.9–24 μg 1⁻¹; Cu, 4–16 μg 1⁻¹; and Zn, 34–59 μg 1⁻¹) were found at the upper Potomac and northern bay sites. Three separate areas were identified on the basis of relative concentrations of different aromatic hydrocarbons in SMIC samples - the northern bay, the Potomac River, and the cleaner southern and eastern portions of the sampling area.Suspected sources of surface contamination include gasoline and diesel fuel combustion, coal combustion, and petroleum product releases. Concentrations of metals and hydrocarbons, at approximately half the stations sampled, are sufficient to pose a threat to the reproductive stages of some fish and shellfish. Sampling and analysis of the surface microlayer provides a sensitive tool for source identification and monitoring of potentially harmful aquatic pollution.