New Models for Long Range Forecasts of Summer Monsoon Rainfall over North West and Peninsular India

Summary New models based on (a) Multivariate Principal Component Regression (PCR) (b) Neural Network (NN) and (c) Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) techniques were developed for long-range forecasts of summer monsoon (June–September) rainfall over two homogeneous regions of India, viz., North West India and Peninsular India. The PCR and NN models were developed with two different data sets. One set consisted 42 years (1958–1999) of data with 8 predictors and the other, 49 years (1951–1999) of data with 6 predictors. The predictors were subjected to the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) before model development. Two different neural networks were designed with 2 and 3 hidden neurons. To avoid the nonlinear instability, 20 ensemble runs were made while training the network and the ensemble mean results are discussed. The LDA model was developed with 42 years of data (1958–1999) for classifying three rainfall intervals with equal prior probability of 0.33. Both the PCR and NN models showed useful forecast skill for NW India and Peninsular India. Models with 8 predictors performed better than the models with only 6 predictors. The NN model with 3 hidden neurons performed better than model with 2 hidden neurons. For NW India, the NN model performed better than the PCR model. The RMSE of the NN model and PCR model with 8 predictors for NW India (Peninsular India) during the independent period 1984–99 was 12.5% (12.2%) and 12.6% (11.5%), respectively. Corresponding figures for the models with 6 predictors are 15.0% (13.0%) and 13.9% (11.4%) respectively. During the independent period, model errors were large in 1991, 1994, 1997 and 1999. However all the models showed deteriorating predictive skill after 1988, both for NW India and Peninsular India. The LDA model correctly classified 62% of grouped cases for NW India and Peninsular India. The LDA model showed better skill in classifying deficient rainfall (< − 8%) over NW India and excess rainfall (> 3%) over Peninsular India. Received October 2, 1999 Revised December 28, 1999     

The Role of Forests in the Implementation of Russia’s Low-Carbon Development Strategy

Doklady Earth Sciences - The potential role of forests in achieving carbon neutrality in the Russian Federation by 2060 is analyzed. It is shown that the key rate in the Strategy for the...     

Stability and phase relations of nonstoichiometric clinopyroxenes in the join diopside-Ca-Eskola component at high pressures

The stability of nonstoichiometric clinopyroxenes in the Di-CaEsk join was experimentally studied, and phase diagrams were constructed for this join at pressures of 2.0 and 3.0 GPa. It was found that melting in the diopside part of the join occurs at anomalously low temperatures, and nonstoichiometric clinopyroxene coexists with a phase approaching diopside in composition. Phase relations along the Di-CaEsk join can be described and consistently interpreted only assuming that the diopside phase (α-diopside) is thermodynamically stable. The following phase volumes were observed along the solidus of the join at a pressure of 3.0 GPa: Cpx, αDi+Cpx, αDi+Cpx+Qtz, αDi+Cpx+Grt+Qtz, Cpx+Grt+Qtz, Cpx+Grt+Ky+Qtz, Grt+Ky+Qtz. Melting occurs via the eutectic reaction αDi+Cpx+Grt+Qtz=L at a temperature of about 1200°C in the diopside part of the system and via the eutectic reaction Cpx+Grt+Ky+Qtz=L at a temperature of 1400°C in the calcium-rich part of the system. At a pressure of 2.0 GPa, melting occurs at temperatures of 1200–1300°C via the eutectic reaction αDi+Cpx+ An + Qtz=L. The invariant equilibrium (L, An, Cpx, Grt, αDi, Qtz) lies within the pressure range 2.0–3.0 GPa. Nonstoichiometric clinopyroxenes form complex solid solutions, the compositions of which are not strictly confined to the Di-CaEsk join and depend on temperature, pressure, and phase association. Grossular garnets coexist with nonstoichiometric clinopyroxenes and α-diopside.     

Deep structure of the Racha earthquake source zone from seismic tomography data

The Racha earthquake of 1991 was the strongest of the earthquakes recorded in the Caucasus. It was studied by an international epicentral expedition. Unique data gathered by this expedition included records of aftershocks whose swarm was very intense. A 3-D velocity model is obtained from analysis of these data by the method of local earthquake tomography. The ancient crystalline basement and the sedimentary-volcanic Mesozoic-Cenozoic cover could be identified from cross sections of the P wave field. The eastern and western boundaries of an uplift in the basement of the Dzirulskii Massif are delineated. Linear low velocity heterogeneities correlating with the active Kakheti-Lechkhumi fault zone and two Trans-Caucasian linear fault zones are discovered in the basement. The cloud of aftershock hypocenters is shown to correlate with a reflector coinciding with the cover-basement interface.     

Modeling of deep-seated high-alumina parageneses on the basis of the stability fields of corundum- and spinel-normative assemblages of the system CaO–MgO–Al2O3–SiO2

To elaborate physicochemical models for the origin of crystalline rocks, experimental studies of the field of high-alumina assemblages of the system CaO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂ were carried out at 10–30 kbar and 1250–1535 °C. We have determined the phase relations between the melt (L) and An, Sp, Cpx, Cor, and Ga, the slope of the rays of the monovariant reactions An + Sp = Cpx + Cor + (Ga) and L = Cpx +Ga + Cor + Sp, the position of the nonvariant point (An, Sp, Cpx, Cor, Ga, L), and the compositions of phases participating in these reactions. Based on a topological analysis of the studied segment of the system CaO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂, we have substantiated that “eclogitization” must follow the reaction Opx + An + Sp = Cpx + Ga. A fundamental continuous series of eutectic monovariant equilibria was observed: L = Cpx + Opx + Fo + An, L = Cpx + Opx + An + Sp, L = Cpx (+ Ga) + An + Sp, and L = Cpx + Cor (+ Ga) + An. A change in the melt composition in this series of eutectic reactions depending on pressure must reflect the most likely magma genesis trend in nature. Comparision of the composition fields in which the above series of reactions is observed with the composition fields of the rocks of magmatic formations showed that this series is most similar to the alkali-earth series of rocks. The mineralogical compositions of cumulates and phenocrysts found in the effusive and dike varieties of these rocks correspond to unique sets of subsolidus phase associations and individual subsolidus phases crystallizing in this fundamental eutectic series.     

Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Influence of the saffman force,lift force,and electric force on sand grain transport in a wind–sand flow

Quasi-horizontal trajectories of salting sand grains were found using high-speed video-recording in the desertified territory of the Astrakhan region. The sizes and displacement velocities of the saltating sand grains were determined. A piecewise logarithmic approximation of the wind profile in a quasi-stationary wind–sand flow is suggested, which is consistent with the data of observations and modeling. It was established that, in the regime of stationary saltation, the wind profile in the lower saltation layer of the wind–sand flow depends only slightly on the wind profile variations in the upper saltation layer. The vertical profiles of the horizontal wind component gradient in a quasi-stationary wind–sand flow were calculated and plotted. It was shown using high-speed video recording of the trajectory of a sand grain with an approximate diameter of 95 μm that the weightlessness condition in the desertified territory of the Astrakhan region in a stationary wind–sand flow is satisfied at a height of approximately 0.15 mm. The electric parameters of a wind–sand flow, which can provide for compensation of the force of gravity by the electric force, were estimated. In particular, if the specific charge of a sand grain is 100 μC/kg, the force of gravity applied to the sand grain can be compensated by the electric force if the vertical component of the electric field in a wind–sand flow reaches approximately 100 kV/m. It was shown that the quasi-horizontal transport of sand grains in the lower millimeter saltation layer observed in the desertified territory can be explained by the joint action of the aerodynamic drag, the force of gravity, the Saffman force, the lift force, and the electric force.     

Use of remote sensing in lineament analysis for tectonic evolution and resource study of a part of Vindhyan Basin,Jhalawar area,India

Synoptivity and the exemplified fracture systems exhibited by the space borne imagery data has helped in solving many of the geological enigma in various parts of the world. The study conducted, using such remotly sensed data, in Jhalawar anticline, part of Proterozoic Cratonic Vindhyan Basin, Rajasthan, India, led to infer the history of tectonic evolution of peribasinal deformation which has been a matter of controversy for a century and more. In Landsat MSS data the Jhalawar region displays a panorama of lineaments and their analysis through azimuthal frequency diagrams, isofracture, lineament incidence and lineament intersection incidence density maps shows that the mean orientation of the lineaments fall in NW-SE and NE-SW and the shape of the various lineament density contours also show NE-SW and NW-SE orientations. In aerial photographs the area exhibits four sets of lineaments in NE-SW, NW-SE, N-S and E-W directions. Amongst these the former two sets are expressed as wide open master fracture systems with prolific vegetation fills along them and the latter two sets are characteristically observed as thin vegetation linears with frequent strike slip faulting along them. The further analysis of these fracture/lineament systems derived from multi-level remote sensing data shows that the Jhalawar anticline, which followed the pattern of flexural slip fold mechanism, was evolved by horizontally disposed σ1 (greatest principal stress) and 3σ (least principal stress) with the former oriented in NE-SW and the latter aligned in NW-SE directions with vertically disposed 2σ. The inference of such palaeostress environment of the Jhalawar region lead in the identification of a buried rigid basement high southwest of Jhalawar anticline, beneath the Deccan pile and loci of ground water, silica sand and probable igneous plug.     

A set of optical methods for studying marine phytoplankton

The results of integrated optical measurements of Black Sea water samples using a spectrophotometer, laser spectrometer, and fluorometer with pulse-modulated excitation light are discussed. A linear correlation between the intensities of chlorophyll absorption at 673 nm and chlorophyll fluorescence (680–750 nm) is observed. Phycoerythrin-containing organisms are recorded in phytoplankton in layers below 20 m. The data of 1-week monitoring of phytoplankton abundance and functional activity in Golubaya Bay with a Mega-25 flow fluorometer are described.     

Determination of the Total Ozone Content in Cloudy Conditions based on Data from the IKFS-2 Spectrometer onboard the Meteor-M no. 2 Satellite

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - A new technique has been developed to obtain the total ozone content (TOC) under cloudy conditions from the spectra of outgoing thermal IR radiation...