Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections: A Statistically Determined Flare Flux – CME Mass Correlation

In an effort to examine the relationship between flare flux and corresponding CME mass, we temporally and spatially correlate all X-ray flares and CMEs in the LASCO and GOES archives from 1996 to 2006. We cross-reference 6733 CMEs having well-measured masses against 12 050 X-ray flares having position information as determined from their optical counterparts. For a given flare, we search in time for CMEs which occur 10 – 80 minutes afterward, and we further require the flare and CME to occur within ± 45° in position angle on the solar disk. There are 826 CME/flare pairs which fit these criteria. Comparing the flare fluxes with CME masses of these paired events, we find CME mass increases with flare flux, following an approximately log-linear, broken relationship: in the limit of lower flare fluxes, log (CME mass)∝0.68×log (flare flux), and in the limit of higher flare fluxes, log (CME mass)∝0.33×log (flare flux). We show that this broken power-law, and in particular the flatter slope at higher flare fluxes, may be due to an observational bias against CMEs associated with the most energetic flares: halo CMEs. Correcting for this bias yields a single power-law relationship of the form log (CME mass)∝0.70×log (flare flux). This function describes the relationship between CME mass and flare flux over at least 3 dex in flare flux, from ≈ 10⁻⁷ – 10⁻⁴ W m⁻².     

The spawning and early life-history of a New Zealand endemic amphidromous eleotrid,bluegill bully (Gobiomorphus hubbsi)

The larval stage of fishes is critical in determining their dispersal, survival and recruitment, but little is known of the larval behaviours and tolerances of amphidromous fishes, particularly in New Zealand. We report the results of a series of observational and experimental studies on bluegill bully (Gobiomorphus hubbsi), including spawning sites and behaviours, larval characteristics at hatch, phototactic responses of larvae, and larval survival at different salinity levels. Spawning primarily occurred in the lower reaches of the river, and larvae from different nests exhibited marked differences in, and trade-offs between, larval characteristics at hatch, potentially affecting larval success. Larvae were positively phototactic to intense light, an unexpected result based on diel drift patterns and international research. Finally, larvae exhibited markedly higher survival rates when reared at intermediate salinities compared to freshwater or seawater, suggesting estuaries may play an important role as nursery grounds for bluegill bully and other amphidromous fish.     

Structure of the Wave Bottom Boundary Layer over Smooth and Rough Bottoms

The comparison of six well-known models of the wave bottom boundary layer shows that they are identical in the case of a smooth bottom but exhibit serious differences for the other types of conditions. The thickness of the wave bottom boundary layer and the coefficient of vertical diffusion of momentum are studied by using the relations of the k-ε-model. The validity of these estimates is checked by comparing the measured and computed values of the friction velocity. This comparison demonstrates fairly good agreement between the results characterized by a coefficient of correlation equal to 0.851. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 54–67, November–December, 2005.     

P–T–t–d evolution of orogenic middle crust of the Roc de Frausa Massif (Eastern Pyrenees): a result of horizontal crustal flow and Carboniferous doming?

Structural, petrological and textural studies are combined with phase equilibria modelling of metapelites from different structural levels of the Roc de Frausa Massif in the Eastern Pyrenees. The pre‐Variscan lithological succession is divided into the Upper, Intermediate and Lower series by two orthogneiss sheets and intruded by Variscan igneous rocks. Structural analysis reveals two phases of Variscan deformation. D1 is marked by tight to isoclinal small‐scale folds and an associated flat‐lying foliation (S1) that affects the whole crustal section. D2 structures are characterized by tight upright folds facing to the NW with steep NE–SW axial planes. D2 heterogeneously reworks the D1 fabrics, leading to an almost complete transposition into a sub‐vertical foliation (S2) in the high‐grade metamorphic domain. All structures are affected by late open to tight, steeply inclined south‐verging NW–SE folds (F3) compatible with steep greenschist facies dextral shear zones of probable Alpine age. In the micaschists of the Upper series, andalusite and sillimanite grew during the formation of the S1 foliation indicating heating from 580 to 640 °C associated with an increase in pressure. Subsequent static growth of cordierite points to post‐D1 decompression. In the Intermediate series, a sillimanite–biotite–muscovite‐bearing assemblage that is parallel to the S1 fabric is statically overgrown by cordierite and K‐feldspar. This sequence points to ~1 kbar of post‐D1 decompression at 630–650 °C. The Intermediate series is intruded by a gabbro–diorite stock that has an aureole marked by widespread migmatization. In the aureole, the migmatitic S1 foliation is defined by the assemblage biotite–sillimanite–K‐feldspar–garnet. The microstructural relationships and garnet zoning are compatible with the D1 pressure peak at ~7.5 kbar and ~750 °C. Late‐ to post‐S2 cordierite growth implies that F2 folds and the associated S2 axial planar leucosomes developed during nearly isothermal decompression to <5 kbar. The Lower series migmatites form a composite S1–S2 fabric; the garnet‐bearing assemblage suggests peak P–T conditions of >5 kbar at suprasolidus conditions. Almost complete consumption of garnet and late cordierite growth points to post‐D2 equilibration at <4 kbar and <750 °C. The early metamorphic history associated with the S1 fabric is interpreted as a result of horizontal middle crustal flow associated with progressive heating and possible burial. The upright F2 folding and S2 foliation are associated with a pressure decrease coeval with the intrusion of mafic magma at mid‐crustal levels. The D2 tectono‐metamorphic evolution may be explained by a crustal‐scale doming associated with emplacement of mafic magmas into the core of the dome.     

Solution for a plane strain rough‐walled hydraulic fracture driven by turbulent fluid through impermeable rock

The impact of turbulent flow on plane strain fluid‐driven crack propagation is an important but still poorly understood consideration in hydraulic fracture modeling. The changes that hydraulic fracturing has experienced over the past decade, especially in the area of fracturing fluids, have played a major role in the transition of the typical fluid regime from laminar to turbulent flow. Motivated by the increasing preponderance of high‐rate, water‐driven hydraulic fractures with high Reynolds number, we present a semianalytical solution for the propagation of a plane strain hydraulic fracture driven by a turbulent fluid in an impermeable formation. The formulation uses a power law relationship between the Darcy‐Weisbach friction factor and the scale of the fracture roughness, where one specific manifestation of this generalized friction factor is the classical Gauckler‐Manning‐Strickler approximation for turbulent flow in a rough‐walled channel. Conservation of mass, elasticity, and crack propagation are also solved simultaneously. We obtain a semianalytical solution using an orthogonal polynomial series. An approximate closed‐form solution is enabled by a choice of orthogonal polynomials embedding the near‐tip asymptotic behavior and thus giving very rapid convergence; a precise solution is obtained with 2 terms of the series. By comparison with numerical simulations, we show that the transition region between the laminar and turbulent regimes can be relatively small so that full solutions can often be well approximated by either a fully laminar or fully turbulent solution.     

Seismic hazard of Egypt

Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum expected magnitude,M _max, annual activity rate,, andb value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for two regions of Egypt. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The catalogue used covers earthquakes with magnitude 3 from the time interval 320–1987. The uncertainties in magnitude estimates and threshold of completeness were taken into account. The hazard parameter determination is performed for two study areas. The first area, Gulf of Suez, has higher seismicity level than the second, all other active zones in Egypt.b-values of 1.2 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.1 are obtained for the two areas, respectively. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude 3 is much larger in the Gulf of Suez, 39 ± 2 than in the other areas, 6.1 ± 0.5. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated to be 6.5 ± 0.4 for a time span of 209 years for the Gulf of Suez and 6.1 ± 0.3 for a time span of 1667 years for the remaining active areas in Egypt. Respective periods of 10 and 20 years were reported for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 for the two subareas.     

Manifestations of miocene acid intrusive magmatism on the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus: First evidence from isotope geochronology

New isotope-geochronological data (K-Ar, Rb-Sr) provide tight geochronological constraints on the history of Late Cenozoic magmatism on the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus. Several previously unknown, rhyodacite intrusive bodies with an emplacement age of 6.9 ± 0.3 Ma (Late Miocene) are reported from the Kakheti-Lechkhumi regional fault zone in the Kvemo Svaneti-Racha area. Therefore, a pulse of acid intrusive magmatism took place in a period previously considered amagmatic in the Greater Caucasus. The petrological, geochemical, and isotopic data suggest that these rhyodacites are produced by crystallization differentiation of mantle-derived magmas, which are similar in composition to Miocene mafic lavas that erupted a few hundred thousand years later in the adjacent Central Georgian neovolcanic area. The presented results allow the conclusion that the volcanic activity within the Central Georgian neovolcanic area occurred at 7.2–6.0 Ma in two discrete pulses: (1) the emplacement of acid intrusions and (2) the eruption of trachybasaltic lavas. The emplacement of rhyodacite intrusions in the Kvemo Svaneti-Racha area marked the first pulse of young magmatism on the southern slope of the Main Caucasus range and simultaneously represented the second magmatic pulse (after granitoid magmatism of the Caucasian Mineral Waters region) within the entire Greater Caucasus.     

Late Devensian environments in the Vale of Mowbray, North Yorkshire, UK: evidence from palynology

Two radiocarbon-dated Lateglacial pollen diagrams from the Vale of Mowbray (northern Vale of York) are presented from sites in the lowlands between the washlands courses of the rivers Swale and Ure in North Yorkshire, an area with little previous palynological research despite its proximity to the Devensian glacial advance limits in eastern England. The profiles, from Snape Mires and Nosterfield, include the Loch Lomond Stadial (Younger Dryas) and the Holocene transition, while that from Snape Mires also includes the period from the early part of the Lateglacial Interstadial. This profile differs from most published Interstadial diagrams from the Yorkshire region in having a long-delayed expansion of tree and shrub taxa. Juniperus (juniper) remains important after vegetation development takes place and the pollen record includes evidence of two cold climate oscillations before the maximum development of Betula (birch) woodland near the end of the Lateglacial Interstadial. At both profiles Artemisia (mugwort) frequencies are lower during the Loch Lomond Stadial than at many regional sites, probably due to edaphic factors in these lowland locations. The two sites provide valuable environmental data that enable comparison between the more wooded Lateglacial vegetation to the south in the Vale of York and Humberside and the more open contemporaneous vegetation to the north in the Durham and Northumberland lowlands.     

Application of time- and magnitude-predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in Iran

The regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied successfully in diverse regions of the world to describe the occurrence of main shocks. In the current study, the model has been calibrated against the historical and instrumental catalog of Iranian earthquakes. The Iranian plateau is divided into 15 seismogenic provinces; then, the interevent times for strong main shocks have been determined for each one. The empirical relations reported by Papazachos et al. (Tectonophysics 271:295–323, 1997a) for the Alpine–Himalayan belt (including Iran) were adopted except for the constant terms that were calculated separately for every seismotectonic area. By using the calibrated equations developed for the study area and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of the last main shocks in each seismogenic source, the time-dependent conditional probabilities of occurrence P(?t) of the next main shocks during next 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years as well as the magnitude of the expected main shocks (M _f) have been estimated. The immediate probability (within next 10 years) of a large main shock is estimated to be high and moderate (>35 %) in all regions except zones 9 (M _f = 5.8) and 15 (M _f = 6.1). However, it should be noted that the probabilities have been estimated for different M _f values in 15 regions. Comparing the model predictions with the actual earthquake occurrence rates shows the good performance of the model for Iranian plateau.