Forecasting the Peak Amplitude of the 24th and 25th Sunspot Cycles and Accompanying Geomagnetic Activity

Forecasting solar and geomagnetic levels of activity is essential to help plan missions and to design satellites that will survive for their useful lifetimes. Therefore, amplitudes of the upcoming solar cycles and the geomagnetic activity were forecasted using the neuro-fuzzy approach. Results of this work allow us to draw the following conclusions: Two moderate cycles are estimated to approach their maximum sunspot numbers, 110 and 116 in 2011 and 2021, respectively. However, the predicted geomagnetic activity shown to be in phase with the peak of the 24th sunspot cycle will reach its minimum three years earlier, then it will rise sharply to reach the 25th maximum a year earlier (i.e., 2020). Our analysis of the three-century long sunspot number data-set suggests that the quasi-periodic variation of the long-term evolution of solar activity could explain the irregularity of the short-term cycles seen during the past decades.     

Exchange and correlation interactions in electron-positron plasma

The effect of particle-particle interaction on the adiabatic index γ for an electron-positron plasma is considered. An improved method for numerically calculating the Hartree-Fock exchange integral is presented and its relativistic asymptotics is determined. An approximation formula is derived for the correlation part of the interaction in the low-density limit. This formula includes degeneracy and the positron component.     

Power spectrum of brightness temperature fluctuations derived from solar eclipse observations at 2.8 GHz

In this paper we report on the MEM power spectrum analysis of brightness temperature fluctuations observed at 2.8 GHz during the total solar eclipse of 16 February 1980. The observed periodicities range from 3.5 min to 64 min. These periodicities may arise due to spatial and/or temporal variations in the solar radio emission. The observed periodicities imply presence of scale sizes ranging from 70,000 to 600,000 km assuming that the brightness fluctuations arise because of spatial variation only. On the other hand, if these fluctuations are due to temporal variation, the observed periodicities correspond well to predicted modes of solar global oscillations.     

Variability of cloud liquid water and ice over South Asia from TMI estimates

In this study, the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission based Microwave Imager estimates (2A12) have been used to compare and contrast the characteristics of cloud liquid water and ice over the Indian land region and the ocean surrounding it, during the premonsoon (May) and monsoon (June–September) seasons. Based on the spatial homogeneity of rainfall, we have selected five regions for our study (three over ocean, two over land). Comparison across three ocean regions suggests that the cloud liquid water (CLW) over the orographically influenced Arabian Sea (close to the Indian west coast) behaves differently from the CLW over a trapped ocean (Bay of Bengal) or an open ocean (equatorial Indian Ocean). Specifically, the Arabian Sea region shows higher liquid water for a lower range of rainfall, whereas the Bay of Bengal and the equatorial Indian Ocean show higher liquid water for a higher range of rainfall. Apart from geographic differences, we also documented seasonal differences by comparing CLW profiles between monsoon and premonsoon periods, as well as between early and peak phases of the monsoon. We find that the CLW during the lean periods of rainfall (May or June) is higher than during the peak and late monsoon season (July–September) for raining clouds. As active and break phases are important signatures of the monsoon progression, we also analysed the differences in CLW during various phases of the monsoon, namely, active, break, active-to-break and break-to-active transition phases. We find that the cloud liquid water content during the break-to-active transition phase is significantly higher than during the active-to-break transition phase over central India. We speculate that this could be attributed to higher amount of aerosol loading over this region during the break phase. We lend credence to this aerosol-CLW/rain association by comparing the central Indian CLW with that over southeast Asia (where the aerosol loading is significantly smaller) and find that in the latter region, there are no significant differences in CLW during the different phases of the monsoon. While our hypothesis needs to be further investigated with numerical models, the results presented in this study can potentially serve as a good benchmark in evaluating the performance of cloud resolving models over the Indian region.     

Evolution of the Fine Structure of Magnetic Fields in the Quiet Sun: Observations from Sunrise/IMaX and Extrapolations

Observations with the balloon-borne Sunrise/Imaging Magnetograph eXperiment (IMaX) provide high spatial resolution (roughly 100 km at disk center) measurements of the magnetic field in the photosphere of the quiet Sun. To investigate the magnetic structure of the chromosphere and corona, we extrapolate these photospheric measurements into the upper solar atmosphere and analyze a 22-minute long time series with a cadence of 33 seconds. Using the extrapolated magnetic-field lines as tracer, we investigate temporal evolution of the magnetic connectivity in the quiet Sun’s atmosphere. The majority of magnetic loops are asymmetric in the sense that the photospheric field strength at the loop foot points is very different. We find that the magnetic connectivity of the loops changes rapidly with a typical connection recycling time of about 3±1 minutes in the upper solar atmosphere and 12±4 minutes in the photosphere. This is considerably shorter than previously found. Nonetheless, our estimate of the energy released by the associated magnetic-reconnection processes is not likely to be the sole source for heating the chromosphere and corona in the quiet Sun.     

Evidence of climatic warming in the southern Urals region derived from borehole temperatures and meteorological data

Thirty borehole temperature–depth profiles in the central and southern Urals, Russia were scrutinized for evidence of ground surface temperature histories. We explored two inversion schemes: a simple ramp inversion in which solutions are parameterized in terms of an onset time and magnitude of change and a more sophisticated functional space inverse algorithm in which the functional form of the solution is left unspecified. To enhance and potentially identify latitudinal differences in the ground surface temperature signal, we subdivided the data into three groups based on geographic proximity and simultaneously inverted the borehole temperature–depth logs. The simultaneous inversions highlighted 13 temperature–depth logs that could not both fit a common ground surface temperature history and a priori models within reasonable bounds. Our results confirm that this is an effective way to reduce site-specific noise from an ensemble of boreholes. Each inversion scheme gives comparable results indicating locally variable warming on the order of 1°C starting between 1800 and 1900 AD. Similarly surface air temperature records from 12 nearby meteorological stations exhibit locally variable warming also on the order of 1°C of warming during the 20th century. To explore the degree to which borehole temperatures and surface air temperature (SAT) time series are responding to the same signal, we average the SAT data into the same three groups and used these averages as a forcing function at the Earth's surface to generate synthetic transient temperature profiles. Root mean square (RMS) misfits between these synthetic temperature profiles and averaged temperature–depth profiles are low, suggesting that first-order curvature in borehole temperatures and variations in SAT records are correlated.     

The Solar Flare of November 4, 2001, and Its Manifestations in Energetic Particles from Coronas-F Data

Based on X-ray, gamma-ray, and charged-particle measurements with several instruments onboard the Coronas-F satellite and on ACE and GOES experimental data presented on the Internet, we investigate the parameters of the solar flare of November 4, 2001, and the energetic-particle fluxes produced by it in circumterrestrial space. The increase in relativistic-electron fluxes for about 1.5 days points to a moving source (shock front). The structure of the energetic-particles fluxes in the second half of November 5, 2001, can be explained by the passage of the coronal mass ejection that was ejected on November 1, 2001, and that interacted with the shock wave from the flare of November 4, 2001.     

Stable isotope study of base metal deposits from the Eastern High Atlas,Morocco

Tertiary epigenetic lead ± zinc and copper mineralizations occur in the Mesozoic carbonate cover and stibnite, barite and copper mineralization in the Precambrian to Palaezoic basement in the Eastern High Atlas, Morocco. The carbon isotope data from host carbonates range from +3 to -1‰ PDB. The data are typical for marine carbon. There is no difference between surrounding dolomites and younger vein dolomites. The oxygen isotopic composition of the samples is enriched in ¹⁶O; the range is from -3 to -11‰ PDB with respect to that of carbonates in equilibrium with marine water. It is postulated that the isotopic composition was changed during dolomitization being caused by transition of connate formation waters diluted to some degree by meteoritic water. The bacteriogenically reduced sulphur from syngenetic sulphides and Mesozoic marine sulphate mobilized during Tertiary orogenesis are thought to be the source of H₂S and SO₄. Cambro-Ordovicien sulphate is also supposed to be the source of sulphur in the Jebel Zelmou barite deposit in the basement. Isotopic composition of lead from galenas in the Tertiary deposits from the Mesozoic cover are strikingly homogenous. Model ages vary between 230–180 Ma. It is suggested that important mobilization processes are responsible for Tertiary metallogeny in Morocco.