Real-time envelope cross-correlation detector: application to induced seismicity in the Insheim and Landau deep geothermal reservoirs

We develop and test a real-time envelope cross-correlation detector for use in seismic response plans to mitigate hazard of induced seismicity. The incoming seismological data are cross-correlated in real-time with a set of previously recorded master events. For robustness against small changes in the earthquake source locations or in the focal mechanisms we cross-correlate the envelopes of the seismograms rather than the seismograms themselves. Two sequenced detection conditions are implemented: After passing a single trace cross-correlation condition, a network cross-correlation is calculated taking amplitude ratios between stations into account. Besides detecting the earthquake and assigning it to the respective reservoir, real-time magnitudes are important for seismic response plans. We estimate the magnitudes of induced microseismicity using the relative amplitudes between master event and detected event. The real-time detector is implemented as a SeisComP3 module. We carry out offline and online performance tests using seismic monitoring data of the Insheim and Landau geothermal power plants (Upper Rhine Graben, Germany), also including blasts from a nearby quarry. The comparison of the automatic real-time catalogue with a manually processed catalogue shows, that with the implemented parameters events are always correctly assigned to the respective reservoir (4 km distance between reservoirs) or the quarry (8 km and 10 km distance, respectively, from the reservoirs). The real-time catalogue achieves a magnitude of completeness around 0.0. Four per cent of the events assigned to the Insheim reservoir and zero per cent of the Landau events are misdetections. All wrong detections are local tectonic events, whereas none are caused by seismic noise.     

中国东部植被NDVI对气温和降水的时空响应

Temporal and spatial response characteristics of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature and precipitation in the whole year,spring,summer and autumn was analyzed from April 1998 to March 2008 based on the SPOT VGT-NDVI data and daily temperature and precipitation data from 205 meteorological stations in eastern China.The results indicate that as a whole,the response of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature is more pronounced than that of precipitation in eastern China.Vegetation NDVI maxi...     

Changes in production potentials of rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin of China under climate change: A multi-model ensemble approach

Rapeseed is one of the major oil crops in China and it is very sensitive to climate change. The Yangtze River Basin is the main rapeseed production area in China. Therefore, a better understanding of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production in the basin is of both scientific and practical importance to Chinese oil industry and food security. In this study, based on climate data from 5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with 4 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in 2011–2040 (2020s), 2041–2070 (2050s) and 2071–2100 (2080s), we assessed the changes in rapeseed production potential between the baseline climatology of 1981–2010 and the future climatology of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. The key modelling tool – the AEZ model – was updated and validated based on the observation records of 10 representative sites in the basin. Our simulations revealed that: (1) the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production increases with time; (2) in the middle of this century (2050s), total rapeseed production would increase significantly; (3) the average production potential increase in the 2050s for the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin is 0.939, 1.639 and 0.339 million tons respectively; (4) areas showing most significant increases in production include southern Shaanxi, central and eastern Hubei, northern Hunan, central Anhui and eastern Jiangsu.     

Spectral-temporal structure of variations in the atmospheric total ozone in central Eurasia

The results of long-term (1980–2003) systematic measurements of the total ozone content at the Issyk Kul station (42.6° N, 77.0° E; 1650 m above sea level) are presented. The statistical characteristics and spectral structure of variations in the total ozone and the main tendencies of its temporal variability are determined. It is found that the total ozone content decreased in 1980–2003 at an average rate of (?1.29±0.08) DU/yr. The results of Fourier and wavelet analyses have shown that only oscillations with periods of 12, 27–29, and 102–105 months are rather stable and can be represented as harmonic oscillations. Oscillations with periods shorter than six months have the character of periodically arising pulsations. Among these, oscillations with periods of 27–29 and 34–37 days can be distinguished. It is noted that the spectral-temporal structure of variations in the total ozone content obtained from ground-based measurements at the Issyk Kul station is in good agreement with the corresponding structure obtained from TOMS satellite measurements.     

Metallic Mineral Resources in the Twenty-First Century. I. Historical Extraction Trends and Expected Demand

Industrial, technological, and economic developments depend on the availability of metallic raw materials. As a greater fraction of the Earth’s population has become part of developed economies and as developed societies have become more affluent, the demand on metallic mineral resources has increased. Yet metallic minerals are non-renewable natural resources, the supply of which, even if unknown and potentially large, is finite. An analysis of historical extraction trends for eighteen metals, going back to the year 1900, demonstrates that demand of metallic raw materials has increased as a result of both increase in world population and increase in per-capita consumption. These eighteen metals can be arranged into four distinct groups, for each of which it is possible to identify a consistent pattern of per-capita demand as a function of time. These patterns can, in turn, be explained in terms of the industrial and technological applications, and in some cases conventional uses as well, of the metals in each group. Under the assumption that these patterns will continue into the future, and that world population will grow by no more than about 50% by the year 2100, one can estimate the amount of metallic raw materials that will be required to sustain the world’s economy throughout the twenty-first century. From the present until the year 2100, the world can be expected to require about one order of magnitude more metal than the total amount of metal that fueled technological and economic growth between the age of steam and the present day. For most of the metals considered here, this corresponds to 5–10 times the amount of metal contained in proven ore reserves. The two chief driving factors of this expected demand are growth in per-capita consumption and present-day absolute population numbers. World population is already so large that additional population growth makes only a small contribution to the expected future demand of metallic raw materials. It is not known whether or not the amount of metal required to sustain the world’s economy throughout this century exists in exploitable mineral resources. In the accompanying paper, I show that it is nevertheless possible to make statistical inferences about the size distribution of the mineral deposits that will need to be discovered and developed in order to satisfy the expected demand. Those results neither prove nor disprove that the needed resources exist but can be used to improve our understanding of the challenges facing future supply of metallic raw materials.     

Recent water quality trends and a comparison to sediment-core records for two riverine lakes of the Upper Mississippi River basin: Lake St. Croix and Lake Pepin

Long-term water quality monitoring data from two riverine lakes in the Upper Mississippi River basin, Lakes St. Croix and Pepin, were analyzed to compare the long-term average water quality conditions and land use distributions, water quality trends and loads at lake inlets and outlets, trends from long-term versus short-term monitoring records, and the ability of paleolimnological cores to accurately infer lake water quality conditions. During the 1976–2004 period, the long-term average concentrations of nutrients, suspended solids, and chlorophyll-a were consistently lower at the Lake St. Croix inlet versus the Lake Pepin inlet, which drains a greater proportion of urban and agricultural runoff. Despite these differences, nutrient trends were similar at the inlets to both lakes; reductions in total phosphorus and ammonium concentrations were attributed to improvements in point source technologies, whereas increasing nitrate concentrations were attributed to both point source changes and nonpoint source increases. Despite improvements in several water quality variables, nitrate concentrations are increasing in both lakes, sediment trends indicate persistent nonpoint source inputs to Lake Pepin, and current total phosphorus concentrations remain well above pre-1950s levels in both lakes. Since urban development and agriculture are increasing in the Lake St. Croix and Lake Pepin Watersheds, continued point source regulation and additional nonpoint source control efforts will be needed to further improve water quality in these lakes. The 1976–2004 trends for most water quality variables were similar at inlet versus outlet sites on Lake St. Croix. Trends at Lake Pepin inlet versus outlet sites were less similar, but data availability limited the comparison to the 1993–2003 period. While the truncated data record highlighted short-term trends in both lakes, the full data record was most useful for exploring general patterns in water quality. Length of monitoring record affected our ability to detect trends at the inlets to both lakes, and altered the magnitude of detected trends. During the two decades of the 1980s and 1990s, paleolimnological estimates of retained phosphorus loads were similar to those estimated from recent water quality monitoring. These similarities support the use of paleolimnological approaches to infer past water quality conditions in Lakes St. Croix and Pepin. This is one of eight papers dedicated to the “Recent Environmental History of the Upper Mississippi River” published in this special issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology. D. R. Engstrom served as guest editor of the special issue.     

Effect of system variables and particle size on physical characteristics of air sparging plumes

Air was injected through a well in a thin transparent tank filled with saturated glass beads to study how the size and air saturation of air sparging plumes are affected by particle size and gradation; operational parameters such as injection pressure, well depth, injection pressure pulsing; and well outlet configuration. V-shaped air plumes with an apex between 40° and 60° were obtained for all tests. The air pressure required to initiate sparging agreed closely with the sum of the air entry pressure and the hydrostatic pressure, with higher initiation pressures required in the fine and well-graded beads. Higher air flow rates and air saturations were obtained in coarser beads at a given pressure, and the variation in flow rate was consistent with estimated air permeabilities. Peak average air saturations were 28–56% for the coarse-medium beads, 10% for the well-graded beads, and 8% for the fine beads. Air saturation and the radius of influence increased modestly (<40%) as the normalized injection pressure exceeded 0.1. Radius of influence increased by approximately a factor of two as the well depth increased, but leveled off once the ratio of radius of influence to well depth reached 0.60–1.05. Pulsing of injection pressure had no effect on the initiation pressure, air flow rate, or air saturation, but increased the size of the air plume and the radius of influence slightly (<15%). Well outlet configuration had only a slight affect the radius of influence (<10%), air saturation (<10%), or air flow rate (<12%). Dye testing showed that water surrounding the air plume circulated during continuous and pulsed sparging. However, pulsed sparging resulted in greater and more defined circulation of water within and adjacent to the air plume, which should reduce mass transfer limitations during sparging.     

RC J0311+0507: A candidate for superpowerful radio galaxies in the early universe at redshift z = 4.514

A strong emission line at 6703 Å has been detected in the optical spectrum for the host galaxy (R = 23.1) of the radio source RC J0311+0507 (4C+04.11). This radio galaxy, with a spectral index of 1.31 in the frequency range 365–4850 MHz, is one of the ultrasteep-spectrum objects from the deep survey of a sky strip conducted with RATAN-600 in 1980–1981. We present arguments in favor of the identification of this line with Lyα at redshift z = 4.514. In this case, the object belongs to the group of extremely distant radio galaxies of ultrahigh radio luminosity (P ₁₄₀₀ = 1.3 × 10²⁹ W Hz^?1). Such power can be provided only by a fairly massive black hole (～10⁹ M⊙) that formed in a time less than the age of the Universe at the observed z (1.3 Gyr) or had a primordial origin.     

北太平洋阻塞的年际年代际变化及其与SST、遥相关及风暴路径的关系

利用NCEP／NCAR再分析资料，对1948／1949－1999／2000共52个冬季的北太平洋上空中纬度阻塞异常的气修特征进行了统计分析，小波分析和功率谱分析结果表明该区域阻塞发生的频数具有很明显的3－7年的年际振荡和年代际变化特征。同时2－7年带通平均的小波方差谱分析结果表明阻塞的这种年际变化的振幅存在着缓慢下降的趋势，且气候突变在20世纪70年代，这进一步证明了北太平洋上空的阻塞活动具有年代际变化特征。对强阻塞异常的冬季和弱阻塞异常的冬季分别进行合成分析，结果表明，对于阻塞异常强的冬季，北太平洋西向东北方向加强并分裂成两个中心，而SST异常在中纬度太平洋则对应着典型的PDO型，在赤道地区则为类La Nina型的海温分布。而对于阻塞异常弱的冬季则对应截然不同甚至相反的分布特征，即500hPa高度异常场表现为符号相反的PNA型，风暴路径中心在日界线附近呈纬向型分布。同时SST异常在赤道地区则为典型的El Nino型的海温分布。以上结果揭示出北太平洋阻塞活动的年际变化可能主要与热带海温的遥响应相联系，而年代际变化则主要与中纬度局地的PDO型海温及其通过斜压瞬变波的海－气相互作用有关。