Study of the mutual influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation processes and the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations

On the basis of the nonlinear techniques for the estimation of coupling between oscillatory systems from time series, we investigate the dynamics of climatic modes characterizing global and Northern Hemisphere (NH) processes. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation indices and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices are analyzed in terms of the most reliable data from 1950 through 2004 and earlier data since the 19th century. These indices characterize changes in NH atmospheric pressure (specifically, sea-level pressure in the North Atlantic and NH extratropical latitudes as a whole) and in equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure to which the strongest variations of global surface temperature and global climate on interannual time scales and of regional climatic anomalies in the NH are linked. The methods used are based on phase-dynamics modeling and nonlinear prediction models (a nonlinear version of Granger causality). From both methods and various ENSO indices, the inference about the ENSO effect on the NAO during the latter half of the 20th century and in the early 21st century is made with confidence probability of at least 0.95. The influence is characterized by a time delay of about two years. No inverse influence is found with a similar degree of reliability. Results of estimating the coupling between the ENSO and the NAO depend on the type of index that is used to describe the NAO. The ENSO effect on the NAO is detected with sufficient confidence when the NAO index is chosen to be a larger scale characteristic. However, when a more local index of the NAO is used, no statistically significant coupling to the ENSO is found. Increasing the length of the analyzed ENSO and NAO series (over more than 100 yr) does not lead to any more reliable detection of coupling. Analysis of the data for different time intervals during 1950–2004 has revealed a strengthening of the ENSO effect on the NAO, although this inference is not reliable.     

Evolution of the Axial Geometry of the Southwest Indian Ocean Ridge between the Melville Fracture Zone and the Indian Ocean Triple Junction – Implications for Segmentation on Very Slow-Spreading Ridges

Geophysical data from 900 km of the Southwest Indian Ridge are used todescribe the pattern of evolution of the plate boundary between 61° Eand 70° E over the past 20 million years. The SWIR is anobliquely-opening, ultra slow-spreading axis, and east of61° E comprises a series of ridge sections, each about 100–120 kmin length. The orientation of these sections varies fromsub-orthogonal to oblique to the approximately N–S spreadingdirection. In general, the suborthogonal sections are shallower, commonlysubdivided into an array of discrete axial segments, and carry recognisablecentral magnetic anomalies. The majority of the oblique sections are single,continuous rifts without continuous axial magnetic signatures.Morphotectonics of the Southwest Indian Ridge crust have not previously beenwell constrained off-axis, and we here present sidescan sonar andswath bathymetric data up to 100 km from the ridge to demonstrate the complexities of its spatial and temporal evolution.A model is proposed that the segmentation style correlates with analong-axis variation between: (a) relatively thick crustal sections which overlie mantle sections with higher magmatic supply created in orthogonally-spreading segments and (b) those oblique sections associated with cooler, magmatically-starved mantle and thinner crust. These latter sections are formed at broad offset zones in theplate boundary, more precisely defined on faster-spreading ridges asnontransform discontinuities. The nonsystematic pattern of crustalconstruction, extensional basin formation and the absence of extension-parallel traces of discontinuities off-axis suggest that the oblique spreading sections are not fixed in space or time.     

Controls on organic carbon distribution in sediments from the eastern Arabian Sea Margin

 Sediment cores from the upper continental slope of the eastern Arabian Sea have high organic carbon (OC), CaCO₃, and sand content at the top. The values decrease with increasing depth in the Holocene and Upper Pleistocene. Topographic highs show highest OC and lower CaCO₃ in the Holocene clayey sediments and vice versa in the Pleistocene sandy sediments. The OC is immature and marine or a mixture of both marine and terrestrial in the Holocene sediments and is mostly terrestrial and/or reworked marine in the Pleistocene sediments. Productivity is the main controlling factor for the organic carbon enrichment. Texture and reworking also influence the organic carbon variations. Received: 29 May 1996/Revision received: 10 January 1997     

Intrusive Stratification of the Gulf-Stream Frontal Zone According to the Results of Investigations Performed during Cruise 43 of the R/V Akademik Vernadskii

We analyze the data of investigation of the intrusive structure of the Gulf-Stream frontal zone obtained in making frequent drift sections with the help of an MGI-8102 probing complex, study the regularities of variation of temperature, salinity, and density along separate intrusions, and present a series of results connected with the specific features of initiation and development of intrusions and the types of exchange processes determining their transformations. It is shown that the T-diagrams of all intrusions are well separated into segments with different slopes. Moreover, by comparing the slopes and locations of these segments with each other and with the T-diagrams of the Gulf Stream and slope waters, we can fairly reliably attribute the corresponding segments of intrusions to one of the following four types: initial dynamic folds of the frontal zone, layers of domestic water separating the intrusive segments of foreign water from each other, intrusive segments characterized by the penetration of ambient water, and segments not intrusive initially but getting the required slope as a result of interaction with upper and lower intrusive segments. For segments of the last two types, it is possible to specify the predominant type of exchange.     

Application of the Genetic Algorithm to the Problem of Reconstruction of Missing Data

We study the problem of reconstruction (interpolation and extrapolation) of the vertical profiles of hydrochemical and hydrobiological elements according to incomplete sets of data with simultaneous filtration of short-period components based on expansions in empirical orthogonal functions. The genetic algorithm is used to compute the coefficients of expansion of profiles with missing data. We present the results of processing the data arrays on oxygen, chlorophyll A, and biogenic elements collected in the Black Sea in 1982–1993. The mean error of reconstruction of the profiles enables us to conclude that the proposed method has considerable advantages over the conventional approaches.     

Statistical Modeling of Monthly Anomalies of Atmospheric Precipitations for the Region of the Ukraine and Black Sea

The data array accumulated for the period 1946–1995 is used to select the most significant predictor of monthly anomalies of precipitation in the region of the Ukraine and Black Sea, namely, a large-scale circulation in a sector covering the North Atlantic and Europe. Three large-scale predictors (geopotential at a level of 500GPa, sea-level pressure, and the difference between the geopotentials at levels of 500 and 1000GPa) give almost identical results: their correlation with anomalies of precipitation is equal to 0.7–0.8 in winter and 0.4–0.5 in summer. The predominant mechanism of the influence of circulation on precipitations at low frequencies is the response of the trajectories of European cyclones to changes in the upper-tropospheric jet currents in the Atlantic-European sector described as the superposition of the North-Atlantic oscillation and the Eurasian mode. The decomposition of the fields of precipitations and circulation in the eigenmodes of the canonical correlation analysis opens a possibility of direct computation of the monthly average fields of precipitations for the entire territory of the Ukraine and Black Sea region according to the large-scale geopotential fields.     

Control over natural resources in ecological economical systems

We consider the problem of stable development of natural economical complexes from the viewpoint of basic balances in an ecological economical system. We construct a basic dynamical model of the complex capable of predicting various scenarios of the industrial development, consumption of natural resources, and pollution of the environment and propose a mechanism of control over the process of development by introducing rent payments for the use of natural resources and ecological fines for the pollution of the environment. The efficiency of the applied model is demonstrated by analysing the process of control over the concentration of biological resources in marine media as an example. We describe the results of numerical experiments performed to show the possibility of creation of the information technology of control over marine bioresources. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev