On Methods of Short-Term Earthquake Prediction Based on Monitoring the Hydrogeodeformation Field

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - The permanent analysis of the hydrogeodeformation (HGD) field is one promising direction in the field of predicting strong earthquakes. As a result of...     

Organized Roll Circulation and Transport of Mineral Aerosols in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - An investigation into mesoscale roll circulation and its transport characteristics in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is carried out. The case...     

Eurasian Large-Scale Hazes in Summer 2016

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - The technique for constructing the spatial distribution of maximum aerosol optical depth (MAOD) has been used to estimate the optically dense haze...     

Helicopter Crash on the Spitsbergen Archipelago: Infrasound and Seismic Signals Decryption

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - A Convers Avia Airline Mi-8 helicopter crashed near the Russian settlement of Barentsburg on October 26, 2017. The moment of impact was recorded by the...     

Intense turbulent convection in a horizontal plane liquid layer

Direct numerical simulation of turbulent convection in a horizontal liquid layer heated from below is performed within the framework of the nonstationary Navier—Stokes equations with the use of the Bubnov—Galerkin method. The main attention is given to calculations for superhigh supercriticalities. Computational burden is reduced by the use of the splitting method at each step of integration. Previously, the smallness of the residual arising from substitution of simulated results into the initial system of equations is demonstrated and the residual’s dependence on the number of reference functions and supercriticality is considered. A good agreement of the results obtained with the use of different numerical implementations of the Bubnov—Galerkin procedure is shown, in particular, for the stochastic processes corresponding to a low supercriticality and appearing with the formation of strange attractors close to a Mobius strip. The calculations were carried out for a wide range of supercriticality (from 1 to 34000). It is shown that simulations and experiment are in good qualitative agreement.     

The measurement of water losses from a forested area using a “natural” lysimeter

Water losses due to transpiration and evaporation of intercepted water were measured using a “natural” lysimeter in the Hafren forest of central Wales, and were compared with estimates of potential evaporation calculated from meteorological observations. Given certain assumptions concerning the forest canopy, the lysimeter observations were used to estimate runoff from the experimental catchment of the Upper Severn, within which the lysimeter is sited; this estimate agreed well with observation.     

A note on the performance of the multiply-upstream semi-Lagrangian advection schemes for one-dimensional nonlinear momentum conservation equation

Summary Two-time-level multiply-upstream semi-Lagrangian schemes were examined in the case of the self-advecting, one-dimensional nonlinear momentum conservation equation. The shock formation process was analyzed. It is pointed out that the shocks cannot be created in the truncated systems satisfying the Pudykiewicz, Benoit and Staniforth criterion.The numerical integrations were restricted to 12 h. It was shown that, at least in the sub-CFL range, increased complexity of the scheme can compensate reduced horizontal resolution. A considerable sensitivity of the schemes with respect to the time step was detected. In the super-CFL mode, several windows on various time scales were found within which the Pudykiewicz, Benoit and Staniforth criterion was satisfied. The time step of 1.44 times the maximum time step allowed by the CFL criterion was used in the semi-Lagrangian runs.The super-CFL, semi-Lagrangian solutions were diverging progressively from the sub-CFL ones as the forecasts advanced. This was also reflected in the energy spectra.Unacceptably large energy losses were encountered in the super-CFL, semi-Lagrangian runs. Most of these losses could be explained by the reduced mean wind speed, i.e., the amplitude of the zero wavenumber wave. At the same time, the energy content in the shorter waves increased. In a more complex model, such a situation would resemble a loss of zonal, and an increase of transient eddy kinetic energy.A trajectory error measure was defined as the maximum absolute value of the distance between the actual arriving point of the particle originating at the estimated departure point, and the grid point assumed to be the arrival point in the semi-Lagrangian procedure. In contrast to the sub-CFL regime, this measure could reach a considerable fraction of the grid distance in the computations with the super-CFL time steps.In the physical system considered, the trajectories are determined only by the velocities at the departure points. With the semi-Lagrangian schemes the distances traveled by the particles are estimated on the basis of the velocities at the points downstream with respect to the departure points. Thus, unless the solution is smooth (in space and time) on the scales of the extrapolation distances/times, the upstream extrapolation does not promise the convergence of the solution.With 16 Figures     

Estimation of possible climatic changes of river runoff in the Northern Dvina River basin in the 21st century

Presented is a method of studying possible climate-driven changes of river runoff characteristics, according to which the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are used for computing the climate system impact, whereas the response of a watershed to given disturbance is estimated using the model of runoff formation in a river basin. The study is carried out for the Northern Dvina River basin. Estimates of possible changes (relative to the reference period) by the middle and late 21st century of such water regime characteristics as mean annual and maximum water discharge, as well as mean discharge values for the spring, summer-fall and winter seasons, are presented.     

Electricity of the convective atmospheric boundary layer: Field observations and numerical simulation

The electric state of the middle-latitude convective atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is investigated during a point in time when it is not disturbed by clouds, precipitation, mist, or industrial aerosols. A numerical model is developed that estimates the electroaerodynamic state of the convective ABL. The model is parameterized using results of field observations and laboratory experiments. According to the model, vertical profiles of atmospheric electric field strength, space charge density, electric conductivity, and atmospheric electric current density are calculated in the horizontally homogeneous approximation with a high space-time resolution.     

Spatiotemporal distributions of tsunami sources and discovered periodicities

Both spatial and spatiotemporal distributions of the sources of tsunamigenic earthquakes of tectonic origin over the last 112 years have been analyzed. This analysis has been made using tsunami databases published by the Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics (Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (United States), as well as earthquake catalogs published by the National Earthquake Information Center (United States). It has been found that the pronounced activation of seismic processes and an increase in the total energy of tsunamigenic earthquakes were observed at the beginning of both the 20th (1905–1920) and 21st (2004–2011) centuries. Studying the spatiotemporal periodicity of such events on the basis of an analysis of the two-dimensional distributions of the sources of tectonic tsunamis has made it possible to determine localized latitudinal zones with a total lack of such events (90°?75° N, 45°–90° S, and 35°?25° N) and regions with a periodic occurrence of tsunamis mainly within the middle (65°?35° N and 25°–40° S) and subequatorial (15° N–20° S) latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The objective of this work is to analyze the spatiotemporal distributions of sources of tsunamigenic earthquakes and the effect of the periodic occurrence of such events on the basis of data taken from global tsunami catalogs.