Methods for monitoring tidal flushing in large animal burrows in tropical mangrove swamps

The typically anaerobic nature of mangrove sediments provides significant challenges to the mangrove trees and biota inhabiting them. The burrowing activities and flow of water through the numerous and complex animal burrows perforating the sediments of mangroves have a major influence on the biogeochemistry of the sediments and are important to the enhancement of nutrient and oxygen exchange. Two new methods are presented for monitoring the tidal flushing of Sesarma messa and Alpheus cf macklay burrows in a Rhizophora stylosa mangrove forest – by measuring oxygen content of burrow water and by determining the change in fluorescence of a dye tracer through tidal inundation. A case study using the first of these showed oxygen consumption rates at the burrow wall deep within the burrow were found to be between 210 and 460 μmol O₂ m⁻² h⁻¹. The influx of oxygen during a flood tide was found to be significant and indicated that approximately 40% of the burrow water is flushed during a single tidal event. However, the high consumption rate of oxygen within the burrow resulted in the oxygen concentration remaining at or below one-third of the oxygen content of the flooding tidal water. A test application of the second method, using rhodamine dye as a tracer, indicated that the exchange of water between the burrow and the flooding tide was found to be in the order of 30% of the burrow volume. These new techniques provide a means to further study the nutrient exchange within these burrow systems and verify the initial findings that several tidal inundations are necessary to completely flush the burrows.     

Different approaches to model error formulation in 4D-Var: a study with high-resolution advection schemes

All numerical models are imperfect. Weak constraint variational data assimilation ( VDA ), which provides a treatment of the modelling errors, is studied; building on the approach of Vidard et al. (Tellus, 56 A, pp. 177–188, 2004). The evolution of model error ( ME ) is modelled using ordinary differential equations, which involve a scalar parameter. These approaches were tested using different high-resolution advection schemes. The first set of experiments were constructed to see if it is possible to account for (numerical) discretization error within such a framework. In other set of experiments, a systematic source of modelling error was introduced by deliberately specifying an incorrect value for the Coriolis parameter in the model. Results with observational state at half of the model state resolution, are also presented. We also discuss a method of estimating the scalar parameter in the ME through VDA . In all cases, the inclusion of ME provides reduction in forecasting errors. Also, our experiments indicate that different settings of the model (e.g. using different high-resolution advection schemes) would need different ME formulation. Results presented in this paper could be used to formulate sophisticated ME forms to account for systematic errors in higher dimensional models with complex advection schemes.     

Changes in climatic characteristics of Northern Hemisphere extratropical land in the 21st century: Assessments with the IAP RAS climate model

Assessments of future changes in the climate of Northern Hemisphere extratropical land regions have been made with the IAP RAS climate model (CM) of intermediate complexity (which includes a detailed scheme of thermo- and hydrophysical soil processes) under prescribed greenhouse and sulfate anthropogenic forcing from observational data for the 19th and 20th centuries and from the SRES B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios for the 21st century. The annual mean warming of the extratropical land surface has been found to reach 2–5 K (3–10 K) by the middle (end) of the 21st century relative to 1961–1990, depending on the anthropogenic forcing scenario, with larger values in North America than in Europe. Winter warming is greater than summer warming. This is expressed in a decrease of 1–4 K (or more) in the amplitude of the annual harmonic of soil-surface temperature in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia and North America. The total area extent of perennially frozen ground S _p in the IAP RAS CM changes only slightly until the late 20th century, reaching about 21 million km², and then decreases to 11–12 million km² in 2036–2065 and 4–8 million km² in 2071–2100. In the late 21st century, near-surface permafrost is expected to remain only in Tibet and in central and eastern Siberia. In these regions, depths of seasonal thaw exceed 1 m (2 m) under the SRES B1 (A1B or A2) scenario. The total land area with seasonal thaw or cooling is expected to decrease from the current value of 54–55 million km² to 38–42 in the late 21st century. The area of Northern Hemisphere snow cover in February is also reduced from the current value of 45–49 million km² to 31–37 million km². For the basins of major rivers in the extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, runoff is expected to increase in central and eastern Siberia. In European Russia and in southern Europe, runoff is projected to decrease. In western Siberia (the Ob watershed), runoff would increase under the SRES A1B and A2 scenarios until the 2050s–2070s, then it would decrease to values close to present-day ones; under the anthropogenic forcing scenario SRES B1, the increase in runoff will continue up to the late 21st century. Total runoff from Eurasian rivers into the Arctic Ocean in the IAP RAS CM in the 21st century will increase by 8–9% depending on the scenario. Runoff from the North American rivers into the Arctic Ocean has not changed much throughout numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM.     

Macroalgal turfs in the Azores

Studies on macroalgal communities of the Azores report algal turfs as one of the most conspicuous ecological entities occurring on the rocky shores of these islands. The present study investigates the influence of shore height and substratum on turf composition. Data were analysed using the software PRIMER and results confirmed the previous distinction between calcareous, dominated by articulated coralline algae, and non-calcareous turfs, characterized mainly by small red algae. However, no differences in species composition were found in either type of turf occurring on different substrata or at different shore levels.     

Numerical prediction of MODUs drift during Hurricane Katrina

Severe hurricanes, such as Katrina, broke the mooring lines of a number of mobile offshore drilling units (MODU) deployed in the Gulf of Mexico and some of those MODUs went adrift. A drifting MODU may damage other critical elements of the offshore oil and gas infrastructure by colliding with floating or fixed production systems and transportation hubs, or by rupturing pipelines owing to their dragging anchors over the seabed. To avoid or mitigate the damage caused by a drifting MODU, it is desirable to understand the mechanics of the drift of a MODU under the impact of severe wind, wave and current and have the capability of predicting the trajectory of the drift. To explore the feasibility and accuracy of predicting the trajectory of a drifting MODU based on hindcast met-ocean conditions and limited knowledge of the condition of the drifting MODU, this study employed a simplified equation describing only the horizontal (surge, sway and yaw) motions of a MODU under the impact of steady wind, current and wave forces. The simplified hydrodynamic model neglects the first- and second-order oscillatory wave forces, unsteady wind forces (owing to wind gustiness), wave drift damping, and the effects of the body oscillation on the steady wind and current forces. It was assumed that the net effects of the oscillatory forces on the steady motion are insignificant. To verify the accuracy and feasibility of our simplified approach, the predicted drifting trajectories of two MODUs were compared with the corresponding measurements recorded by the global positioning system (GPS).     

Crustal transect across the North Atlantic

Two dimensional crustal models derived from four different ocean bottom seismographic (OBS) surveys have been compiled into a 1,580 km long transect across the North Atlantic, from the Norwegian Møre coast, across the extinct Aegir Ridge, the continental Jan Mayen Ridge, the presently active Kolbeinsey Ridge north of Iceland, into Scoresby Sund in East Greenland. Backstripping of the transect suggests that the continental break-up at ca. 55 Ma occurred along a west-dipping detachment localized near the western end of a ca. 300 km wide basin thinned to less than 20 km crustal thickness. It is likely that an east-dipping detachment near the present day Liverpool Land Escarpment was active during the late stages of continental rifting. A lower crustal high-velocity layer (7.2–7.4 km/s) interpreted as mafic intrusions/underplating, was present beneath the entire basin. The observations are consistent with the plume hypothesis, involving the Early Tertiary arrival of a mantle plume beneath central Greenland and focused decompression melting beneath the thinnest portions of the lithosphere. The mid-Eocene to Oligocene continental extension in East Greenland is interpreted as fairly symmetric and strongly concentrated in the lower crustal layer. Continental break-up which rifted off the Jan Mayen Ridge, occurred at ca. 25 Ma, when the Aegir Ridge became extinct. The first ca. 2 m.y. of oceanic accretion along the Kolbeinsey Ridge was characterized by thin magmatic crust (ca. 5.5 km), whereas the oceanic crustal formation since ca. 23 Ma documents ca. 8 km thick crust and high magma budget.     

Morphosedimentary features and recent depositional architectural model of the Cantabrian continental margin

Multibeam bathymetry, high (sleeve airguns) and very high resolution (parametric system-TOPAS-) seismic records were used to define the morphosedimentary features and investigate the depositional architecture of the Cantabrian continental margin. The outer shelf (down to 180–245 m water depth) displays an intensively eroded seafloor surface that truncates consolidated ancient folded and fractured deposits. Recent deposits are only locally present as lowstand shelf-margin deposits and a transparent drape with bedforms. The continental slope is affected by sedimentary processes that have combined to create the morphosedimentary features seen today. The upper (down to 2000 m water depth) and lower (down to 3700–4600 m water depth) slopes are mostly subject to different types of slope failures, such as slides, mass-transport deposits (a mix of slumping and mass-flows), and turbidity currents. The upper slope is also subject to the action of bottom currents (the Mediterranean Water — MW) that interact with the Le Danois Bank favouring the reworking of the sediment and the sculpting of a contourite system. The continental rise is a bypass region of debris flows and turbidity currents where a complex channel-lobe transition zone (CLTZ) of the Cap Ferret Fan develops.The recent architecture depositional model is complex and results from the remaining structural template and the great variability of interconnected sedimentary systems and processes. This margin can be considered as starved due to the great sediment evacuation over a relatively steep entire depositional profile. Sediment is eroded mostly from the Cantabrian and also the Pyrenees mountains (source) and transported by small stream/river mountains to the sea. It bypasses the continental shelf and when sediment arrives at the slope it is transported through a major submarine drainage system (large submarine valleys and mass-movement processes) down to the continental rise and adjacent Biscay Abyssal Plain (sink). Factors controlling this architecture are tectonism and sediment source/dispersal, which are closely interrelated, whereas sea-level changes and oceanography have played a minor role (on a long-term scale).     

Sensitivity of hurricane surge to morphological parameters of coastal wetlands

Given the history and future risk of storm surge in the United States, functional storm protection techniques are needed to protect vital sectors of the economy and coastal communities. It is widely hypothesized that coastal wetlands offer protection from storm surge and wave action, though the extent of this protection is unknown due to the complexities of flow through vegetation. Here we present the sensitivity of storm-surge numerical modeling results to various coastal wetlands characteristics. An idealized grid domain and 400-km² marsh feature were used to evaluate the effects of marsh characteristics on hurricane surge, including the effects of bottom friction, elevation, and continuity (the ratio of healthy marsh to open water area within the total wetland area).Through coupled hydrodynamic and wave model simulations, it is confirmed that increased bottom friction reduces storm-surge levels for most storms. However, increases in depth associated with marsh elevation loss generally results in a reduction of surge. As marsh continuity is decreased, coastal surge increases as a result of enhanced surge conveyance into and out of the marsh. Storm surge is parameterized in terms of marsh morphology, namely marsh elevation, frictional characteristics, and degree of segmentation, which will assist in the justification for and optimization of marsh restoration in terms of storm protection.     

Atmospheric temperature sounding with the Fourier spectrometer

Preliminary results of a space experiment using the IKFS-2 infrared sounder (Meteor-M2 satellite) showed high-quality of measurements of spectra of the outgoing thermal radiation of the atmosphere–surface system and the adequacy of developed IR radiation atmospheric models in the 15-μm carbon gas absorption band used to recover the vertical profiles of the atmospheric temperature. Outgoing radiation spectra measured by IKFS-2 instruments make it possible to restore vertical temperature profiles with errors close to 1K in most of the 0–30 km high-altitude region, except for the lower troposphere and altitudes above 30 km, where these errors are close to 2–3K.     

Current changes of the lower troposphere temperature in the Moscow region

Modern climatic changes for 1991–2013 in the lower 4-km layer of the atmosphere in the Moscow region are discussed based on long-term measurements using radiosondes in Dolgoprudny near Moscow and sensors installed on a high mast in Obninsk and on a television tower in Ostankino in Moscow. It is shown that at the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century the mean-annual air temperature at all heights from 2 to 4000 m increased by an average of 0.1°C per year. In recent years, the warming has slowed. Over the last two decades, long-term changes were multidirectional, depending on the season: warming in May–December, cooling in January–February, and no statistically significant changes in March and April. The probable reason for the temperature decrease in the middle of the cold period is changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation during recent years (the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in early 2010s). In recent years, the Moscow region climate continentality has increased because of warming in summer and cooling in winter, despite the secular decreasing trend, which was noted before. Mean daily and annual warming rates in Dolgoprudny were higher than in Obninsk. The probable reason is the northward construction expansion and the strengthening of the Moscow heat island. The highest annual temperature amplitude is recorded at heights of 200–300 m.