Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.     

Stratigraphic evidence for multiple drainings of glacial Lake Missoula along the Clark Fork River, Montana, USA

Glacial Lake Missoula, a source of Channeled Scabland flood waters, inundated valleys of northwest Montana to altitudes of ∼ 1265 m and to depths of  >600 m, as evidenced by shorelines and silty lacustrine deposits. This study describes previously unrecognized catastrophic lake-drainage deposits that lie stratigraphically beneath the glacial-lake silts. The unconsolidated gravelly flood alluvium contains imbricated boulder-sized clasts, cross-stratified gravel with slip-face heights of 2-> 35 m, and 70- to 100-m-high gravel bars which all indicate a high-energy, high-volume alluvial environment. Gravel bars and high scablands were formed by catastrophic draining of one or possibly more early, high lake stands (1200-1265 m). Most glacial-lake silt, such as the Ninemile section, was deposited stratigraphically above the earlier deposits, represents a lower lake stand(s) (1050-1150 m), and was not deposited in lake(s) responsible for the highest discharge events. The glaciolacustrine silt-covered benches are incised by relict networks of valleys formed during the drainage of the last glacial lake. Significant erosion associated with the last lake draining was confined to the inner Clark Fork River canyon.