Efficient design of direct low-energy transfers in multi-moon systems

In this contribution, an efficient technique to design direct (i.e., without intermediate flybys) low-energy trajectories in multi-moon systems is presented. The method relies on analytical two-body approximations of trajectories originating from the stable and unstable invariant manifolds of two coupled circular restricted three-body problems. We provide a means to perform very fast and accurate computations of the minimum-cost trajectories between two moons. Eventually, we validate the methodology by comparison with numerical integrations in the three-body problem. Motivated by the growing interest in the robotic exploration of the Jovian system, which has given rise to numerous studies and mission proposals, we apply the method to the design of minimum-cost low-energy direct trajectories between Galilean moons, and the case study is that of Ganymede and Europa.     

Bayesian Methods for Reconstructing Sunspot Numbers Before and During the Maunder Minimum

The Maunder Minimum (MM) was an extended period of reduced solar activity in terms of yearly sunspot numbers (SSN) during 1610?–?1715. The reality of this “grand minimum” is generally accepted in the scientific community, but the statistics of the SSN record suggest a need for data reconstruction. The MM data show a nonstandard distribution compared with the entire SSN signal (1610?–?2014). The pattern does not satisfy the weakly stationary solar dynamo approximation, which characterizes many natural events spanning centuries or even millennia, including the Sun and the stars. Over the entire observation period (1610?–?2014), the reported SSN exhibits statistically significant regime switches, departures from autoregressive stationarity, and growing trends. Reconstruction of the SSN during the pre-MM and MM periods is performed using five novel statistical procedures in support of signal analysis. A Bayesian–Monte Carlo backcast technique is found to be most reliable and produces an SSN signal that meets the weak-stationarity requirement. The computed MM signal for this reconstruction does not show a “grand” minimum or even a “semi-grand” minimum.     

Changing Relationships Between Sunspot Number,Total Sunspot Area and $F_{10.7}$ in Cycles 23 and 24

This article is an update of a study (Tapping and Valdès in Solar Phys. 272, 337, 2011) made in the early part of Cycle 24 using an intercomparison of various solar activity indices (including sunspot number and the 10.7 cm solar radio flux), in which it was concluded that a change in the relationship between photospheric and chromospheric/coronal activity took place just after the maximum of Cycle 23 and continued into Cycle 24. Precursors (short-term variations) were detected in Cycles 21 and 22. Since then the sunspot number index data have been substantially revised. This study is intended to be an update of the earlier study and to assess the impact of the revision of the sunspot number data upon those conclusions. This study compares original and revised sunspot number, total sunspot area, and 10.7 cm solar radio flux. The conclusion is that the transient changes in Cycles 21 and 22, and the more substantial change in Cycle 23, remain evident. Cycle 24 shows indications that the deviation was probably another short-term one.     

Observations of a Radio-Quiet Solar Preflare

The preflare phase of the flare SOL2011-08-09T03:52 is unique in its long duration, in that it was covered by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) and the Nobeyama Radioheliograph, and because it showed three well-developed soft X-ray (SXR) peaks. No hard X-rays (HXR) are observed in the preflare phase. Here we report that no associated radio emission at 17 GHz was found either, despite the higher sensitivity of the radio instrument. The ratio between the SXR peaks and the upper limit of the radio peaks is higher by more than one order of magnitude than the ratio in regular flares. The result suggests that the ratio between acceleration and heating in the preflare phase was different than in regular flares. Acceleration to relativistic energies, if any, occurred with lower efficiency.     

Comparative Study of the Three-Dimensional Thermodynamical Structure of the Inner Corona of Solar Minimum Carrington Rotations 1915 and 2081

Using differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) based on time series of EUV images, we carry out a quantitative comparative analysis of the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the electron density and temperature of the inner corona (\(r<1.25\,\mathrm{R}_{\odot}\)) between two specific rotations selected from the last two solar minima, namely Carrington Rotations (CR)1915 and CR-2081. The analysis places error bars on the results because of the systematic uncertainty of the sources. While the results for CR-2081 are characterized by a remarkable north–south symmetry, the southern hemisphere for CR-1915 exhibits higher densities and temperatures than the northern hemisphere. The core region of the streamer belt in both rotations is found to be populated by structures whose temperature decreases with height (called “down loops” in our previous articles). They are characterized by plasma \(\beta\gtrsim1\), and may be the result of the efficient dissipation of Alfvén waves at low coronal heights. The comparative analysis reveals that the low latitudes of the equatorial streamer belt of CR-1915 exhibit higher densities than for CR-2081. This cannot be explained by the systematic uncertainties. In addition, the southern hemisphere of the streamer belt of CR-1915 is characterized by higher temperatures and density scale heights than for CR-2081. On the other hand, the coronal hole region of CR-1915 shows lower temperatures than for CR-2081. The reported differences are in the range \({\approx}\,10\,\mbox{--}\,25\%\), depending on the specific physical quantity and region that is compared, as fully detailed in the analysis. For other regions and/or physical quantities, the uncertainties do not allow assessing the thermodynamical differences between the two rotations. Future investigation will involve a DEMT analysis of other Carrington rotations selected from both epochs, and also a comparison of their tomographic reconstructions with magnetohydrodynamical simulations of the inner corona.     

Ethnic processes and trends in the ethnic composition of the population in the USSR

The paper deals with the processes of ethnic consolidation, ethnic and linguistic assimilation and inter-ethnic integration taking place in the USSR. The author shows the influence of consolidation and assimilation processes over the trends in the numerical strength of individual peoples and the resulting change in the country's ethnic composition as this is reflected in the Soviet population censuses of 1926, 1959, 1970, and 1979.     

A Brine Evolution Model and Mineralogy of Chemical Sediments in a Volcanic Crater,Lake Kitagata,Uganda

Lake Kitagata, Uganda, is a hypersaline crater lake with Na–SO₄–Cl–HCO₃–CO₃ chemistry, high pH and relatively small amounts of SiO₂. EQL/EVP, a brine evaporation equilibrium model (Risacher and Clement 2001), was used to model the major ion chemistry of the evolving brine and the order and masses of chemically precipitated sediments. Chemical sediments in a 1.6-m-long sediment core from Lake Kitagata occur as primary chemical mud (calcite, magadiite [NaSi₇O₁₃(OH)₃·3H₂O], burkeite [Na₆(CO₃)(SO₄)₂]) and as diagenetic intrasediment growths (mirabilite (Na₂SO₄·10H₂O)). Predicted mineral assemblages formed by evaporative concentration were compared with those observed in salt crusts along the shoreline and in the core from the lake center. Most simulations match closely with observed natural assemblages. The dominant inflow water, groundwater, plays a significant role in driving the chemical evolution of Lake Kitagata water and mineral precipitation sequences. Simulated evaporation of Lake Kitagata waters cannot, however, explain the large masses of magadiite found in cores and the formation of burkeite earlier in the evaporation sequence than predicted. The masses and timing of formation of magadiite and burkeite may be explained by past groundwater inflow with higher alkalinity and SiO₂ concentrations than exist today.     

Kita-Uebaru natural rock slope failure and its back analysis

A large landslide occurred in Kita-Uebaru (or Asato) area of Nakagusuku village in Okinawa Island (Japan) on 10 June 2006 after a rainy period of about 9 days. The total rainfall was 126 mm from June 8 till the time of the landslide this period. This landslide destroyed several buildings and roads, and the total travel distance of the landslide was about 110 m. In this article, the authors were concerned with the initiation conditions of Kita-Uebaru landslide and post-failure motions of the landslide body. The observations made in the landslide area, structural geology analyses and outcomes of geotechnical investigations are described first. Then, possible causes of the landslide are investigated through back analyses using as inputs the geological structure and the strength properties of planes of discontinuities involved in the sliding processes. The final part of the article is concerned with the simulation of post-failure motions of the landslide body. The results of the investigations and back analyses indicate that the failure plane was bi-planar and the heavy torrential rainy period for about 3 days was the main cause of initiation of the landslide. The mechanical model presented in this article was capable of capturing the overall features of the landslide body following the initiation of the failure.     

Parameter estimation for a karst aquifer with unknown thickness using the genetic algorithm method

The combination of ecological fragility and agricultural activity in the loess hilly–gully regions of western China has received broad environmental concerns. In this region, rainfall and soil moisture can fatally influence crop production under dry land farming. In this study, field experiments were conducted, from March 2001 to September 2005, to demonstrate the variation of soil moisture and fertilizer contents at different depths in slope and terraced lands, and to evaluate the ecological impacts and economic benefits in the terraced land of Loess Plateau. The results of both field test and Grey model (GM) calculation show that the terraced land, as compared to the sloping land, in the agricultural area of the Loess Plateau tends to store and retain much water, promoting more favorable interactions between water and fertilizer. During the months from March to June of the year with less rainfall, the water supply for crop growth is mainly derived from the deep storage of soil moisture accumulated from July to September of the previous year. The field experiments indicate that the crop yield of the 3-year-old terraced lands was 27% higher than that of the sloping lands with slopes greater than 10°, and that the crop yield can increase by 27.07 to 52.78% in the following cultivation years. In particular, potato was found to be more drought-resistant than winter wheat, thus it is more suitable for the arid and semi-arid Loess Plateau regions.