Real-time envelope cross-correlation detector: application to induced seismicity in the Insheim and Landau deep geothermal reservoirs

We develop and test a real-time envelope cross-correlation detector for use in seismic response plans to mitigate hazard of induced seismicity. The incoming seismological data are cross-correlated in real-time with a set of previously recorded master events. For robustness against small changes in the earthquake source locations or in the focal mechanisms we cross-correlate the envelopes of the seismograms rather than the seismograms themselves. Two sequenced detection conditions are implemented: After passing a single trace cross-correlation condition, a network cross-correlation is calculated taking amplitude ratios between stations into account. Besides detecting the earthquake and assigning it to the respective reservoir, real-time magnitudes are important for seismic response plans. We estimate the magnitudes of induced microseismicity using the relative amplitudes between master event and detected event. The real-time detector is implemented as a SeisComP3 module. We carry out offline and online performance tests using seismic monitoring data of the Insheim and Landau geothermal power plants (Upper Rhine Graben, Germany), also including blasts from a nearby quarry. The comparison of the automatic real-time catalogue with a manually processed catalogue shows, that with the implemented parameters events are always correctly assigned to the respective reservoir (4 km distance between reservoirs) or the quarry (8 km and 10 km distance, respectively, from the reservoirs). The real-time catalogue achieves a magnitude of completeness around 0.0. Four per cent of the events assigned to the Insheim reservoir and zero per cent of the Landau events are misdetections. All wrong detections are local tectonic events, whereas none are caused by seismic noise.     

Response mechanism of post-earthquake slopes under heavy rainfall

This paper uses the catastrophic landslide that occurred in Zhongxing Town, Dujiangyan City, as an example to study the formation mechanism of landslides induced by heavy rainfall in the post-Wenchuan earthquake area. The deformation characteristics of a slope under seismic loading were investigated via a shaking table test. The results show that a large number of cracks formed in the slope due to the tensile and shear forces of the vibrations, and most of the cracks had angles of approximately 45° with respect to the horizontal. A series of flume tests were performed to show how the duration and intensity of rainfall influence the responses of the shaken and non-shaken slopes. Wetting fronts were recorded under different rainfall intensities, and the depth of rainfall infiltration was greater in the shaken slope than in the non-shaken slope because the former experienced a greater extreme rainfall intensity under the same early rainfall and rainfall duration conditions. At the beginning of the rainfall infiltration experiment, the pore water pressure in the slope was negative, and settling occurred at the top of the slope. With increasing rainfall, the pore water pressure changed from negative to positive, and cracks were observed on the back surface of the slope and the shear outlet of the landslide on the front of the slope. The shaken slope was more susceptible to crack formation than the non-shaken slope under the same rainfall conditions. A comparison of the responses of the shaken and non-shaken slopes under heavy rainfall revealed that cracks formed by earthquakes provided channels for infiltration. Soil particles in the cracks of slopes were washed away, and the pore water pressure increased rapidly, especially the transient pore water pressure in the slope caused by short-term concentrated rainfall which decreased rock strength and slope stability.     

Spatial correlation for horizontal and vertical components of acceleration from northern Iran seismic events

The evaluation of seismic risk of spatially distributed systems requires the spatial correlation model for ground motion intensity measures. This study investigates the spatial correlation of four earthquakes recorded in northern Iran. The intra-event spatial correlation for both horizontal and vertical components of spectral acceleration at eight periods in the range of 0.0–3.0 s is estimated using geostatistical tools. An exponential form is chosen to fit experimental semivariograms, and the correlation ranges of spectral accelerations as a function of period are derived. The results show similar trend of correlation ranges for both components. It should be mentioned that the ranges for the vertical component, in general, are higher than those observed for the horizontal one. For both components, the correlation ranges as a function of period are divided into three segments. The first and the third one are increasing while the second one is decreasing with increasing period.     

Mutual replacement reactions in alkali feldspars I: microtextures and mechanisms

Intracrystal microtextures formed by a process of mutual replacement in alkali feldspars record fluid–rock reactions that have affected large volumes of the Earth’s crust. Regular, ≤1 μm-scale ‘strain-controlled’ perthitic microtextures coarsen, by up to 10³, by a dissolution–reprecipitation process, producing microporous patch or vein perthites on scales >100 μm. We have developed earlier studies of such reactions in alkali feldspar cm-scale primocrysts in layered syenites from the Klokken intrusion, South Greenland. We present new hyperspectral CL, SEM images, and laser ICPMS analytical data, and discuss the mechanism of such replacement reactions. The feldspars grew as homogeneous sodic sanidines which unmixed and ordered by volume diffusion during cooling into the microcline field at ~450°C, giving regular, fully coherent ‘braid’ cryptoperthite. At ≤450°C the crystals reacted with a circulating post-magmatic aqueous fluid. The braid perthite behaved as a single reactant ‘phase’ which was replaced by two product phases, incoherent subgrains of low albite and microcline, with micropores at their boundaries. The driving force for the reactions was coherency strain energy, which was greater than the surface energy in the subgrain mosaic. The external euhedral crystal shapes and bulk major element composition of the primocrysts were unchanged but they became largely pseudomorphs composed of subgrains usually with the ‘pericline’ and ‘adularia’ habits (dominant {110} and subordinate {010} morphology) characteristic of low T growth. The subgrains have an epitactic relationship with parent braid perthite. Individual subgrains show oscillatory zoning in CL intensity, mainly at blue wavelengths, which correlates with tetrahedral Ti. Regular zoning is sometimes truncated by irregular, discordant surfaces suggesting dissolution, followed by resumption of growth giving regular zoning. Zones can be traced through touching subgrains, of both albite and microcline, for distances up to ~500 μm. At ≤340°C, the microcline subgrains underwent a third stage of unmixing to give straight lamellar film perthites with periodicities of ~1 μm, which with further cooling became semicoherent by the development of spaced misfit dislocations. Sub-grain growth occurred in fluid films that advanced through the elastically strained braid perthite crystals, which dissolved irreversibly. Braid perthite was more soluble than the strain-free subgrain mosaics which precipitated from the supersaturated solution. Some volumes of braid texture have sharp surfaces that suggest rapid dissolution along planes with low surface energies. Others have complex, diffuse boundaries that indicate a phase of coherent lamellar straightening by volume diffusion in response to strain relief close to a slowly advancing interface. Nucleation of strain-free subgrains was the overall rate-limiting step. To minimise surface energy subgrains grew with low energy morphologies and coarsened by grain growth, in fluid films whose trace element load (reflected in the oscillatory zoning) was dictated by the competitive advance of subgrains over a range of a few tens of mm. The cross-cutting dissolution surfaces suggest influxes of fresh fluid. Removal of feldspar to give 2 vol% porosity would require a feldspar:fluid ratio of ~1:26 (by wt). The late reversion to strain-controlled exsolution in microcline subgrains is consistent with loss of fluid above 340°C following depressurization of the intrusion. A second paper (Part II) describes trace element partitioning between the albite and microcline subgrains, and discusses the potential of trace elements as a low-T geothermometer. This paper and the Part II are dedicated in memory of J.V. Smith and W.L. Brown, both of whom died in 2007, in acknowledgement of their unrivalled contributions to the study of the feldspar minerals over more than half a century.     

Assimilation of Indian Doppler Weather Radar observations for simulation of mesoscale features of a land-falling cyclone

In this paper, impact of Indian Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) data, i.e., reflectivity (Z), radial velocity (Vr) data individually and in combination has been examined for simulation of mesoscale features of a land-falling cyclone with Advance Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Model at 9-km horizontal resolution. The radial velocity and reflectivity observations from DWR station, Chennai (lat. 13.0°N and long. 80.0°E), are assimilated using the ARPS Data Assimilation System (ADAS) and cloud analysis scheme of the model. The case selected for this study is the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone NISHA of 27–28 November 2008. The study shows that the ARPS model with the assimilation of radial wind and reflectivity observations of DWR, Chennai, could simulate mesoscale characteristics, such as number of cells, spiral rain band structure, location of the center and strengthening of the lower tropospheric winds associated with the land-falling cyclone NISHA. The evolution of 850 hPa wind field super-imposed vorticity reveals that the forecast is improved in terms of the magnitude and direction of lower tropospheric wind, time, and location of cyclone in the experiment when both radial wind and reflectivity observations are used. With the assimilation of both radial wind and reflectivity observations, model could reproduce the rainfall pattern in a more realistic way. The results of this study are found to be very promising toward improving the short-range mesoscale forecasts.     

Multifunctional intervention and market rationality in agricultural governance: a comparative study of England and South Australia

Critiques of the neoliberal governance of agricultural systems have led to a number of political responses which attempt to address the socio-environmental consequences of the dominant regime. In this paper two case study regions (South Australia and England) have been chosen to represent variations in agricultural policy and to highlight subsequent outcomes on the sustainability of agriculture. Interviewed governance stakeholders highlighted issues in regard to the agricultural governance of each area, from social and environmental consequences of minimal policy intervention in South Australia, to issues created by greater economic support in England. As such, the distinct variations in agricultural regimes will continue to demand scholarly attention, in order for the value of diversity within the sector to be more widely understood. The study concludes that it is likely agricultural support will continue to decline in both case study regions. Importantly, however, innovative policy mechanisms that aim to reduce local risks and value local agricultural priorities, without requiring significant financial support, might be the most promising way forward in regard to agricultural system sustainability.     

Reduction of future disaster damages by learning from disaster experiences

This paper examines the effect of a country’s own past disaster experiences and nearby countries’ past experiences on subsequent disaster damage. We use global disaster data from 1990 to 2010, which include disaster-related death tolls for both natural and technological disasters that are further divided into sub-categories. Overall, we find evidence of a reduction effect of past disaster damage on future disaster damage. More detailed analyses show that an adaptation effect seems to be present for certain combinations of disaster types and levels of economic development. The results show that a country’s own experiences reduce future damage for natural disasters but that the marginal effect is larger for lower-income countries. On the other hand, for technological disasters, a robust impact of experiences was found only in higher-income countries. In terms of the disaster experiences of nearby countries, the adaptation effect was found only for natural disasters, and the marginal impact was relatively higher for higher-income countries.     

Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in Cyprus and the Levantine Sea

A modern tsunami catalogue has been compiled for the region of Cyprus-Levantine Sea in which 24 certain or possible local tsunamis are listed from antiquity up to the present time, while six regional tsunamis, generated in the Hellenic arc, are documented which affected the region. Another set of 13 doubtful events not included in the catalogue are discussed. Tsunami intensities k and K were re-evaluated using the classic 6-grade and the new 12-grade intensity scales, respectively. The strongest tsunamis reported in the region of interest are those of 551 AD, 749, 1068, 1201, 1222, 1546 and 1759, all occurring along the Levantine coast from Gaza northward, with the exception of the 1222 wave which occurred in the Cyprean arc. The causative earthquakes, however, occur on land and are associated with the left-lateral strike-slip Levantine rift and, as such, remain unexplained. In this paper we speculate on the mechanism of these events. A second tsunami zone follows the Cyprean arc, where the situation of subaqueous seismogenic sources favours the generation of tsunamis by co-seismic fault displacements. Submarine or coastal earth slumping, however, may be an additional tsunamigenic component. Based on historical data, the average tsunami recurrence in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea region is roughly estimated to be around 30 years, 120 years and 375 years for moderate (k/K ≥ 2/3), strong (k/K ≥ 3/5) and very strong (k/K ≥ 5/8) events, respectively. The rate of tsunami occurrence equals 0.033, 8.3 × 10⁻³ and 2.7 × 10⁻³ events/year for intensity k/K ≥ 2/3, 3/5 and 5/8, respectively. For a Poissonian (random) process the probabilities of observing at least one moderate, strong or very strong tsunami are 0.28, 0.01 and 3 × 10⁻³ within 1 year, 0.81, 0.34 and 0.13 within 50 years and 0.96, 0.56 and 0.24 within 100 years, respectively. The tsunami potential in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea area is low relative to other Mediterranean tsunamigenic regions. However, the destructiveness of some historical events indicates the need to evaluate tsunami hazard by all available means. In addition, remote tsunamigenic sources, such as those of 1303 and 1481 in the eastern Hellenic arc, are able to threaten the coasts of the Cyprus-Levantine region and, therefore, such regional tsunamis should be taken into account in the evaluation of the tsunami risk of the region.     

Particle shape effect on thermal conductivity and shear wave velocity in sands

This study presents the correlations between quantified shape parameters and geotechnical properties for nine sand specimens. Four shape parameters, sphericity, convexity, elongation and slenderness, were quantified with two-dimensional microscopic images with the aid of image processing techniques. An instrumented oedometer cell is used to measure compressibility, thermal conductivity and shear wave velocity during loading, unloading and reloading stages. As the particle shape inherently determines the initial loose packing condition, initial void ratio and shape parameters are well correlated with compressibility. The applied stress in soils increases the interparticle contact area and contact quality; round particles tend to achieve higher thermal conductivity and shear wave velocity during stress-induced volume change. Multiple linear regression is implemented to capture the relative contributions of involved variables, revealing that the thermal evolution is governed by the initial packing density and particle shape. The experimental observations underscore the predominant effect that particle shape has on the geomechanical and physical properties upon stress-induced soil behavior.     

3-D GRACE gravity model for the 2011 Japan earthquake

The GRACE mission has contributed to the seismic characterization of major earthquakes in offshore regions of the world. Here, we isolate satellite gravity signal (μGal range) for the Japan Earthquake of 2011 using a difference method. Contrary to the existing gravity models, we propose a unit vertical pyramid based five-layer 3-D thrust fault model, which extends to the hypocenter and honors the ocean water layer and sea floor upheaval also. Our model partly uses existing seismological information (hypocenter depth of 32 km, rupture length of 300 km and vertical slip of 4 m), provides a snapshot of episodic subduction of the Pacific Plate below the Atlantic Plate and its gravity response closely matches the observed gravity (RMS error of 3.4012×10^?13μGal), fully accounting for co-seismic mass redistribution including sea surface deformation. Our inferred rupture length, rupture velocity, average seismic moment magnitude and momentum, respectively, are 300 km, 4.49 km/s, 1.152×10²¹?1.8816×10²¹ N m and 2.319×10⁶ GNs, which fairly agree with the literature. Further, our model inferred momentum at the sea floor corresponds to an area pulse that led to Tsunami generation.