Relation of the Second Type Thermal Helicity to Precipitation of Landfalling Typhoons: A Case Study of Typhoon Talim

This study utilized the MM5 mesoscale model to simulate the landfalling process of Typhoon Talim. The simulated typhoon track, weather patterns, and rainfall process are consistent with the observation. Using the simulation results, the relation of the second type thermal helicity (H ₂) to rainfall caused by the landfalling typhoon Talim was analyzed. The results show that H ₂ could well indicate the heavy inland rainfall but it did not perform as well as the helicity in predicting rainfall during the beginning stage of the typhoon landfall. In particular, H ₂ was highly correlated with rainfall of Talim at 1-h lead time. For 1–5-h lead time, it also had a higher correlation with rainfall than the helicity did, and thus showing a better potential in forecasting rainfall intensification. Further analyses have shown that when Talim was in the beginning stage of landfall, 1) the 850–200-hPa vertical wind shear around the Talim center was quite small (about 5 m s⁻¹); 2) the highest rainfall was to the right of the Talim track and in the area with a 300-km radius around the Talim center, exhibiting no obvious relation to low-level temperature advection, low-level air convergence, and upper-level divergence; 3) the low-level relative vorticity reflected the rainfall change quite well, which was the main reason why helicity had a better performance than H ₂ in this period. However, after Talim moved inland further, 1) it weakened gradually and was increasingly affected by the northern trough; 2) the vertical wind shear was enhanced as well; 3) the left side of the down vertical wind shear lay in the Lushan and Dabieshan mountain area, which could have contributed to triggering a secondary vertical circulation, helping to produce the heavy rainfall over there; hence, H ₂ showed a better capacity to reflect the rainfall change during this stage.     

Numerical Considerations for Lagrangian Stochastic Dispersion Models: Eliminating Rogue Trajectories,and the Importance of Numerical Accuracy

When Lagrangian stochastic models for turbulent dispersion are applied to complex atmospheric flows, some type of ad hoc intervention is almost always necessary to eliminate unphysical behaviour in the numerical solution. Here we discuss numerical strategies for solving the non-linear Langevin-based particle velocity evolution equation that eliminate such unphysical behaviour in both Reynolds-averaged and large-eddy simulation applications. Extremely large or ‘rogue’ particle velocities are caused when the numerical integration scheme becomes unstable. Such instabilities can be eliminated by using a sufficiently small integration timestep, or in cases where the required timestep is unrealistically small, an unconditionally stable implicit integration scheme can be used. When the generalized anisotropic turbulence model is used, it is critical that the input velocity covariance tensor be realizable, otherwise unphysical behaviour can become problematic regardless of the integration scheme or size of the timestep. A method is presented to ensure realizability, and thus eliminate such behaviour. It was also found that the numerical accuracy of the integration scheme determined the degree to which the second law of thermodynamics or ‘well-mixed condition’ was satisfied. Perhaps more importantly, it also determined the degree to which modelled Eulerian particle velocity statistics matched the specified Eulerian distributions (which is the ultimate goal of the numerical solution). It is recommended that future models be verified by not only checking the well-mixed condition, but perhaps more importantly by checking that computed Eulerian statistics match the Eulerian statistics specified as inputs.     

Conditionally Averaged Large-Scale Motions in the Neutral Atmospheric Boundary Layer: Insights for Aeolian Processes

Aeolian erosion of flat, arid landscapes is induced (and sustained) by the aerodynamic surface stress imposed by flow in the atmospheric surface layer. Conceptual models typically indicate that sediment mass flux, Q (via saltation or drift), scales with imposed aerodynamic stress raised to some exponent, n, where \(n > 1\). This scaling demonstrates the importance of turbulent fluctuations in driving aeolian processes. In order to illustrate the importance of surface-stress intermittency in aeolian processes, and to elucidate the role of turbulence, conditional averaging predicated on aerodynamic surface stress has been used within large-eddy simulation of atmospheric boundary-layer flow over an arid, flat landscape. The conditional-sampling thresholds are defined based on probability distribution functions of surface stress. The simulations have been performed for a computational domain with \(\approx 25 H\) streamwise extent, where H is the prescribed depth of the neutrally-stratified boundary layer. Thus, the full hierarchy of spatial scales are captured, from surface-layer turbulence to large- and very-large-scale outer-layer coherent motions. Spectrograms are used to support this argument, and also to illustrate how turbulent energy is distributed across wavelengths with elevation. Conditional averaging provides an ensemble-mean visualization of flow structures responsible for erosion ‘events’. Results indicate that surface-stress peaks are associated with the passage of inclined, high-momentum regions flanked by adjacent low-momentum regions. Fluid in the interfacial shear layers between these adjacent quasi-uniform momentum regions exhibits high streamwise and vertical vorticity.     

The Impact of Land-Surface Parameter Properties and Resolution on the Simulated Cloud-Topped Atmospheric Boundary Layer

A method to simulate characteristics of wind speed in the boundary layer of tropical cyclones in an idealized manner is developed and evaluated. The method can be used in a single-column modelling set-up with a planetary boundary-layer parametrization, or within large-eddy simulations (LES). The key step is to include terms in the horizontal velocity equations representing advection and centrifugal acceleration in tropical cyclones that occurs on scales larger than the domain size. Compared to other recently developed methods, which require two input parameters (a reference wind speed, and radius from the centre of a tropical cyclone) this new method also requires a third input parameter: the radial gradient of reference wind speed. With the new method, simulated wind profiles are similar to composite profiles from dropsonde observations; in contrast, a classic Ekman-type method tends to overpredict inflow-layer depth and magnitude, and two recently developed methods for tropical cyclone environments tend to overpredict near-surface wind speed. When used in LES, the new technique produces vertical profiles of total turbulent stress and estimated eddy viscosity that are similar to values determined from low-level aircraft flights in tropical cyclones. Temporal spectra from LES produce an inertial subrange for frequencies \(\gtrsim \)0.1 Hz, but only when the horizontal grid spacing \(\lesssim \)20 m.     

Influence of the Surf Zone on the Marine Aerosol Concentration in a Coastal Area

Sea-salt aerosol concentrations in the coastal zone are assessed with the numerical aerosol-transport model MACMod that applies separate aerosol source functions for open ocean and the surf zone near the sea–land transition. Numerical simulations of the aerosol concentration as a function of offshore distance from the surf zone compare favourably with experimental data obtained during a surf-zone aerosol experiment in Duck, North Carolina in autumn 2007. Based on numerical simulations, the effect of variations in aerosol production (source strength) and transport conditions (wind speed, air–sea temperature difference), we show that the surf-zone aerosols are replaced by aerosols generated over the open ocean as the airmass advects out to sea. The contribution from the surf-generated aerosol is significant during high wind speeds and high wave events, and is significant up to 30 km away from the production zone. At low wind speeds, the oceanic component dominates, except within 1–5 km of the surf zone. Similar results are obtained for onshore flow, where no further sea-salt aerosol production occurs as the airmass advects out over land. The oceanic aerosols that are well-mixed throughout the boundary layer are then more efficiently transported inland than are the surf-generated aerosols, which are confined to the first few tens of metres above the surface, and are therefore also more susceptible to the type of surface (trees or grass) that determines the deposition velocity.     

Evaluation of Density Corrections to Methane Fluxes Measured by Open-Path Eddy Covariance over Contrasting Landscapes

Corrections accounting for air density fluctuations due to heat and water vapour fluxes must be applied to the measurement of eddy-covariance fluxes when using open-path sensors. Experimental tests and ecosystem observations have demonstrated the important role density corrections play in accurately quantifying carbon dioxide \((\hbox {CO}_{2})\) fluxes, but less attention has been paid to evaluating these corrections for methane \((\hbox {CH}_{4})\) fluxes. We measured \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) fluxes with open-path sensors over a suite of sites with contrasting \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) emissions and energy partitioning, including a pavement airfield, two negligible-flux ecosystems (drained alfalfa and pasture), and two high-flux ecosystems (flooded wetland and rice). We found that density corrections successfully re-zeroed fluxes in negligible-flux sites; however, slight overcorrection was observed above pavement. The primary impact of density corrections varied over negligible- and high-flux ecosystems. For negligible-flux sites, corrections led to greater than 100% adjustment in daily budgets, while these adjustments were only 3–10% in high-flux ecosystems. The primary impact to high-flux ecosystems was a change in flux diel patterns, which may affect the evaluation of relationships between biophysical drivers and fluxes if correction bias exists. Additionally, accounting for density effects to high-frequency \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) fluctuations led to large differences in observed \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) flux cospectra above negligible-flux sites, demonstrating that similar adjustments should be made before interpreting \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) cospectra for comparable ecosystems. These results give us confidence in \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) fluxes measured by open-path sensors, and demonstrate that density corrections play an important role in adjusting flux budgets and diel patterns across a range of ecosystems.     

Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time

Savannas constitute the most fire-prone vegetation type on earth and are a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions. Most savanna fires are lit by people for a variety of livelihood applications. ‘Savanna burning’ is an accountable activity under the Kyoto Protocol, but only Australia, as a developed economy, accounts for emissions from this source in its national accounts. Over the past decade considerable effort has been given to developing savanna burning projects in northern Australia, combining customary indigenous (Aboriginal) approaches to landscape-scale fire management with development of scientifically robust emissions accounting methodologies. Formal acceptance by the Australian Government of that methodology, and its inclusion in Australia’s developing emissions trading scheme, paves the way for Aboriginal people to commercially benefit from savanna burning projects. The paper first describes this Australian experience, and then explores options for implementing community-based savanna burning emissions reduction projects in other continental savanna settings, specifically in Namibia and Venezuela. These latter examples illustrate that savanna fire management approaches potentially have broader application for contributing to livelihood opportunities in other fire-prone savanna regions.     

Assessment of the Pacific decadal oscillation’s contribution to the occurrence of local torrential rainfall in north China

On 21–22 July 2012, torrential rains hit North China, with the daily precipitation record at Beijing station reaching 160.6 mm; this event is named the Beijing 7–21 case. This paper assesses the likelihood of the occurrence of local torrential rains, such as the Beijing 7–21 case, from the perspective of climate variability. In particular, the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is assessed. There were five extreme events, with daily precipitation records equal to or larger than 160.6 mm, at Beijing station during the period 1951–2012; all of these events happened during negative phases of the PDO. The present analysis indicates that precipitation events more extreme than the Beijing 7–21 case should happen more than once per decade during negative phases of the PDO, but only about once every four decades during positive PDO phases. The negative phase of the PDO is found to be associated with a much greater probability of daily records of southerly winds in North China during summer. Strong southerly summer monsoons are deemed favorable for increasing the occurrence of local extreme rainfall over North China.     

Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape

While ecosystem services and climate change are often examined independently, quantitative assessments integrating these fields are needed to inform future land management decisions. Using climate-informed state-and-transition simulations, we examined projected trends and tradeoffs for a suite of ecosystem services under four climate change scenarios and two management scenarios (active management emphasizing fuel treatments and no management other than fire suppression) in a fire-prone landscape of dry and moist mixed-conifer forests in central Oregon, USA. Focal ecosystem services included fire potential (regulating service), timber volume (provisioning service), and potential wildlife habitat (supporting service). Projections without climate change suggested active management in dry mixed-conifer forests would create more open forest structures, reduce crown fire potential, and maintain timber stocks, while in moist mixed-conifer forests, active management would reduce crown fire potential but at the expense of timber stocks. When climate change was considered, however, trends in most ecosystem services changed substantially, with large increases in wildfire area predominating broad-scale trends in outputs, regardless of management approach (e.g., strong declines in timber stocks and habitat for closed-forest wildlife species). Active management still had an influence under a changing climate, but as a moderator of the strong climate-driven trends rather than being a principal driver of ecosystem service outputs. These results suggest projections of future ecosystem services that do not consider climate change may result in unrealistic expectations of benefits.