Enhanced residual mean circulation during the evolution of split type sudden stratospheric warming in observations and model simulations

Residual mean circulation changes during the evolution of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) are investigated by composite analyses of 76 major warming events identified in a present day simulation performed with a coupled ocean–troposphere–stratosphere model from 299 winters. Their dynamical signatures are compared with the 17 SSW events identified from 35 years of Era-Interim data. The main difference is that, relative frequency of simulated SSW events is smaller than that obtained from reanalysis. SSW events are classified as displacement or split events based on the geopotential field values at 10 hPa. The geopotential field values identify 10 and 3 split events in simulation and observation respectively. The model quite accurately simulates some of the dynamical features associated with the major SSW. Residual mean circulation induced by EP-flux divergence, sum of advection and residual forcing are stronger in split events than in displacement type SSW has been confirmed by both simulation and observation. Moreover, the contribution of EP-flux divergence or planetary wave forcing is larger than the contribution of other types of forcing.     

Satellite estimates and subpixel variability of rainfall in a semi-arid grassland

卫星估雨精度的不确定性受到当地降雨类型和像元内降雨非均匀性影响,而结合这两个关键因素开展半干旱草原卫星估雨的研究有限.2009年夏,我们在中国锡林郭勒半干旱草原用多部微雨雷达和雨量计构建了9 km卫星像元降雨观测网,观测了像元内降雨非均匀性(空间变异系数CV),并评估了卫星估雨精度.结果表明:(1)CV值受像元内平均降雨量,降雨类型,降雨云面积及移向等影响,如高Cv值的降雨过程大多为平均降雨量小,对流性降雨过程,降雨云边缘像元CV值较高;(2)TRMM 3B42V7卫星估雨产品适用性较好,CMORPH和PERSIANN次之,但TRMM 3B42V7易在半干旱草原湖泊处高估降雨.     

Experimental formation of massive hydrate deposits from accumulation of CH4 gas bubbles within synthetic and natural sediments

In order for methane to be economically produced from the seafloor, prediction and detection of massive hydrate deposits will be necessary. In many cases, hydrate samples recovered from seafloor sediments appear as veins or nodules, suggesting that there are strong geologic controls on where hydrate is likely to accumulate. Experiments have been conducted examining massive hydrate accumulation from methane gas bubbles within natural and synthetic sediments in a large volume pressure vessel through temperature and pressure data, as well as visual observations. Observations of hydrate growth suggest that accumulation of gas bubbles within void spaces and at sediment interfaces likely results in the formation of massive hydrate deposits. Methane hydrate was first observed as a thin film forming at the gas/water interface of methane bubbles trapped within sediment void spaces. As bubbles accumulated, massive hydrate growth occurred. These experiments suggest that in systems containing free methane gas, bubble pathways and accumulation points likely control the location and habit of massive hydrate deposits.     

Holocene cool‐water carbonate and terrigenous sediments from southern Spencer Gulf,South Australia

Holocene sediments from southern Spencer Gulf are cool‐water carbonate‐rich gravels and sands, dominated by molluscs and Bryozoa. Five sedimentary fades are recognized: (i) molluscan gravel; (ii) branching coralline‐algal gravel, associated with shallow partially protected environments; (iii) molluscan‐biyozoan sand; (iv) mixed bioclastic sand, representative of the deeper central region of the lower gulf; and (v) bryozoan gravel, an isolated fades developed in a semi‐protected micro‐environment. The southern gulf is characterized by complex oceanographic conditions together with variations in water depth and substrate. The sediments share the characteristics of both the southern shelf and upper Spencer Gulf. Grain‐size distribution and sedimentary facies are controlled by a combination of all the above processes. Past sea level fluctuations are recognized from sea floor strand‐line deposits. The relic component of the palimpsest sediments has eroded from the Pleistocene aeolianite dunes. The sediments, therefore, reflect both the modern marine and past environments.     

The long-term dynamics of crustacean communities in Lake Constance (Obersee, 1962–1986)

The long-term development of crustacean associations in the Obersee of Lake Constance was studied at one central station from 1962 to 1986. In a simultaneously managed program with four additional stations from the eastern part (Bregenz Bay) to the western überlinger See mainly the differences in horizontal distribution were focussed. It was one aim of these investigations, to get an idea or an indication of a connexion between the recently observed eutrophication of the Obersee, and its crustacean communities. Due to the immigration of several species (cyclopids) or genotypes (Daphnia), the communities had changed in genetical structures, in reproduction rates and in predation or grazing impact. Dependent on the specific annual cycles, there resulted an extermination (Heterocope, Diaphanosoma), or a long-term decrease in annual means (Mesocyclops, Cyclops abyssorum) of the “old-settled” species. A general tendency was seen in an increase of annual averages until the middle of the seventies, and a following decrease of population density of most of the species. The horizontal differences in the species associations were remarkable. The Bregenz Bay showed an own aspect in its crustacean community with high total numbers and in earlier spring development. Most of the newcomers were concentrated in the eastern part of the lake.     

Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate

It has been hypothesized recently that regional-scale cooling caused by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be partially obscuring a warming signal associated with changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we use results from model experiments in which sulfate and carbon dioxide have been varied individually and in combination in order to test this hypothesis. We use centered [R (t)] and uncentered [C (t)] pattern similarity statistics to compare observed time-evolving surface temperature change patterns with the model-predicted equilibrium signal patterns. We show that in most cases, the C (t) statistic reduces to a measure of observed global-mean temperature changes, and is of limited use in attributing observed climate changes to a specific causal mechanism. We therefore focus on R (t), which is a more useful statistic for discriminating between forcing mechanisms with different pattern signatures but similar rates of global mean change. Our results indicate that over the last 50 years, the summer (JJA) and fall (SON) observed patterns of near-surface temperature change show increasing similarity to the model-simulated response to combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ forcing. At least some of this increasing spatial congruence occurs in areas where the real world has cooled. To assess the significance of the most recent trends in R (t) and C (t), we use data from multi-century control integrations performed with two different coupled atmosphere-ocean models, which provide information on the statistical behavior of 'unforced' trends in the pattern correlation statistics. For the combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ experiment, the 50-year R (t) trends for the JJA and SON signals are highly significant. Results are robust in that they do not depend on the choice of control run used to estimate natural variability noise properties. The R (t) trends for the CO₂-only signal are not significant in any season. C (t) trends for signals from both the CO₂-only and combined forcing experiments are highly significant in all seasons and for all trend lengths (except for trends over the last 10 years), indicating large global-mean changes relative to the two natural variability estimates used here. The caveats regarding the signals and natural variability noise which form the basis of this study are numerous. Nevertheless, we have provided first evidence that both the largest-scale (global-mean) and smaller-scale (spatial anomalies about the global mean) components of a combined CO₂/anthropogenic sulfate aerosol signal are identifiable in the observed near-surface air temperature data. If the coupled-model noise estimates used here are realistic, we can be highly confident that the anthropogenic signal that we have identified is distinctly different from internally generated natural variability noise. The fact that we have been able to detect the detailed spatial signature in response to combined CO₂ and sulfate aerosol forcing, but not in response to CO₂ forcing alone, suggests that some of the regional-scale background noise (against which we were trying to detect a CO₂-only signal) is in fact part of the signal of a sulfate aerosol effect on climate. The large effect of sulfate aerosols found in this study demonstrates the importance of their inclusion in experiments designed to simulate past and future climate change. Received: 10 November 1994 / Accepted: 19 July 1995