就张北地震谈谈地震监测预报中的几个技术性问题

１９９８年１月１０日河北省张北县发生６．２级地震,作为对这次地震的一次反思,就地震监测预报中的长、中、短临预报、地震速报、震害预测等各项工作中的技术问题、改进方向提出了一些具体意见,以供同行们参考。     

地震前兆信息量的研究：（一）地震异常延续有效性的研究

根据我国大陆５８个Ｍｓ≥５级地震的震列资料,详细地研究了地震异常延续有效时间与持续时间的相关关系,给出了由地震异常持续时间计算地震异常预测的有效时间（即地震异常延续有效时间的最优估值）的公式,经多种数理统计方法检验,证明这一公式是保信、可用的。这为进一步深入开发的震异常前兆信息量的研究奠定了基础,同时也为日常地震会商中常震确定地震异常延续有效性问题,提供了定量分析判定依据,因此本研究具有一定的实际     

Paläogeographische Entwicklungen an mobilen Schollengrenzen im Westhindukusch (Bande Amir,Zentralafghanistan)

In the region of Bande Amir, located on the southern rim of the Tadschik basin, the Mesozoic section starts with detrital and conglomeratic limestones. These marine deposits of Upper Cretaceous age (Cenomanian-Turonian) disconformably cover a truncated complex of Upper Paleozoic rocks (Permian). After an interval of neritic sedimentation (Santonian, Campanian) the Upper Cretaceous sea (Maastrichtian) regressed from the Central Afghanian High. In the Hindukusch mountains the regression is related to crustal movements and regional uplifts, which hinged on the Herat lineament. Intermontane basins, developed on this mobile zone during mid-Tertiary time, gathered continental debris (Neogene conglomerates; Zohak-Formation) and led to the deposition of lacustrine sediments (Ghulghola-Formation). Orogenetic movements along the colliding edges of crustal blocks were rejuvenated in Plio-Pleistocene time, shifting the focus of deposition to the northwest. The basin was finally captured by the Amu Darja drainage system, leading to the development of canyon-like incisions. During warm periods of the Quaternary, fluviatile erosion in Bande Amir was interrupted at least four times by the retention of water behind large dams of travertine.     

On the relation between residual currents and the wind field in the German Bight

Summary The long-period part (T>25 h) of currents measured at close spacing in the German Bight in June 1968 is investigated. The north component of the bottom current is shown to be highly correlated with the east component of the wind in this area, the wind-generated changes of the mass-field giving rise to a quasi-geostrophic current near the bottom.This current responds without perceptible delay to the variations of wind fields with periods considerably longer than those of the seiches of the North Sea. The accelerations linked to such long periods are so small as to be negligable and the residual currents can be regarded as quasi-stationary.

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Über die Beziehung zwischen Reststrom und Windfeld in der Deutschen Bucht

Zusammenfassung Es werden engabständige Strommessungen in der Deutschen Bucht aus dem Juni 1968 in ihrem langperiodischen Teil (T>25 h) untersucht. Dabei ergibt sich, daß die Nordkomponente des Bodenstromes (v) stark korreliert mit der Ostkomponente des Windes (U) in diesem Gebiet. Die winderzeugten Veränderungen des Massenfeldes verursachen eine quasi-geostrophische Strömung am Boden.Diese Strömung reagiert ohne erkennbare Verzögerung auf solche Veränderungen des Windfeldes, die erheblich größere Perioden haben als die Eigenschwingungen der Nordsee. Die damit verbundenen Beschleunigungen sind sehr klein und so zu vernachlässigen; daher kann man die Restströmung auch als quasi-stationär ansehen.

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Sur la relation entre les courants résiduels et le champ du vent en baie Allemande

Résumé La partie à longue période (T>25 h) de courants measurés en des points rapprochés en baie Allemande en juin 1968 est étudiée. La composante Nord du courant de fond se révèle largement corrélée avec la composante Est du vent dans cette zone. Les modifications du champ de masse dues au vent donnent naissance à un courant quasi-géostrophique près du fond.Ce courant répond sans délai perceptible aux variations du champ du vent avec des périodes considérablement plus longues que celles des seiches de la mer du Nord. Les accélérations liées à de telles longues périodes sont si petites qu'elles peuvent être négligées et les courants peuvent être considérés comme quasi-stationnaires.

     

Sedimentation in Lake Biel,an eutrophic,hard-water lake in northwestern Switzerland

A 2-year study of sedimentation in Lake Biel reveals that three major factors can account for the spatial and temporal patterns of tripton sedimentation. Allochthonous inputs of particulate matter mostly derived from the Aare river during spring snowmelt and other high-water periods, provide about 50% of the carbonate and 50% of the siliceous matter collected in sediment traps. Phytoplankton activity in this eutrophic, hard-water lake accounts for the rest of the carbonate and siliceous matter, the latter being mostly diatom frustules. Sedimentation rates are thus highest during periods of maximum river flooding, maximum phytoplankton activity and following the breakdown of the thermocline, at which time trapped particles settle out. Resuspension of sediment is important in at least one basin. Resolution of carbonate appears to be minor.     

Alpine tectonics and diapiric structures in the Pre-Betic zone of southeast Spain

The Pre-Betic is the most northerly of the Alpine zones forming the Betic Cordilleras of southern Spain. It consists of strongly folded and faulted Mesozoic and Tertiary rocks, the oldest of which are ferruginous and gypsiferous Triassic mudstones, followed by a predominantly carbonate facies of Cretaceous, Palaeogene and Miocene age. Although this sequence is interrupted by a number of minor unconformities, the major structures were formed during the middle or late Miocene. The highly incompetent Triassic rocks are the most strongly deformed, and form diapiric intrusions discordant to regional structural trends in the younger rocks. The latter are essentially of two facies: massive competent limestones which are deformed by relatively simple folds of large wavelength, and highly incompetent marl-limestone interbeds with complex disharmonic folds and crush belts. Faults include low-angle and high-angle thrusts, gravity slides and wrench faults. The regional tectonic strike is ENE to NE, but the diapiric intrusions mostly follow WNW and N directions. These intrusions have pushed the younger rocks aside, the result being polyphase structures of several trends.Less intense post-Miocene tectonics are mostly associated with continued diapirism and have resulted in the folding and tilting of the late Miocene to Quaternary elastic sediments.     

Über die Vertikalverteilung und jahreszeitliche Entwicklung der Larvendichte vonDreissena polymorpha Pallas im Pelagial des unteren Zürichseebeckens im Jahre 1974

The freshwater musselDreissena polymorpha Pallas was sighted for the first time in Lake Zürich about 1969. This meant a real problem for the water treatment of lake water. By means of a pump and vertical net hauls it was tried to add more information to the scarce results on Lake Zürich. Additional dates about temperature, depth of Secchi disk visibility and beam transmittance were collected. There was a first appearance of the larvae ofD. polymorpha at the beginning of June. Following the mean temperature of the epilimnion the number of individuals/m² reached max. 210,000. The greatest concentration measured in 1974 of larvae/m³ was 54,375 at a depth of 4 m. The last appearance ofD. polymorpha was observed at the end of October.

     

Ground-based thermal infrared surveys of Mount Rainier volcano,Washington

Detailed, ground-based thermal surveys of selected slopes of Mount Rainier, Washington, utilizing a Barnes PRT-5 Radiation Thermometer have provided quantitative data for the construction of thermal contour maps of portions of the upper flanks of this volcano. The thermal imagery, done in August, 1973, did not locate any suspect thermal areas on the northwest face of Little Tahoma Peak, the site of the large 1963 rock debris avalanche. The survey did not redetect the thermal anomaly observed by the authors on the west side of Mt. Rai nier in August, 1972. This suggests that some thermally anomalous areas on the volcano may change their thermal characteristics within short periods of time. The preliminary surveys revealed, however, suspect thermal areas on the south, west and north sides of the volcano. Furthermore, some of these areas are near thermal areas located in April, 1973, by U. S. Geological Survey aerial thermographic imagery. Closer survey stations and/or field reconnaissance is necessary to determine the origin of these suspect thermal areas which are only a few degrees Celsius warmer than the surrounding rocks and may be due to non-volcanic causes.