Oil dispersal modelling: reanalysis of the Rena oil spill using open-source modelling tools

ABSTRACT

Oil spill forecast modelling is typically used immediately after a spill to predict oil dispersal and promote mobilisation of more effective response operations. The aim of this work was to map oil dispersal after the grounding of the MV Rena on Astrolabe Reef and to verify the results against observations. Model predictions were broadly consistent with observed distribution of oil contamination. However, some hot spots of oil accumulation, likely due to surf-zone and rip current circulation, were not well represented. Additionally, the model was run with 81 differing wind conditions to show that the events occurring during the grounding represented the typical likely behaviour of an oil spill on Astrolabe Reef. Oil dispersal was highly dependent on prevailing wind patterns; more accurate prediction would require better observations of local wind patterns. However, comparison of predictions with observations indicated that the GNOME model was an effective low-cost approach.     

Visualising 30 Years of Population Density Change in Australia’s Major Capital Cities

ABSTRACT

This study uses a novel spatial approach to compare population density change across cities and over time. It examines spatio-temporal change in Australia’s five most populated capital cities from 1981 to 2011, and documents the established and emerging patterns of population distribution. The settlement patterns of Australian cities have changed substantially in the last 30 years. From the doughnut cities of the 1980s, programs of consolidation, renewal and densification have changed and concentrated population in our cities. Australian cities in the 1980s were characterised by sparsely populated, low density centres with growth concentrated to the suburban fringes. ‘Smart Growth’ and the ‘New Urbanism’ movements in the 1990s advocated higher dwelling density living and the inner cities re-emerged, inner areas were redeveloped, and the population distribution shifted towards increased inner city population densities. Policies aimed at re-populating the inner city dominated and the resultant changes are now visible in Australia’s five most populated capital cities. While this pattern has been reported in a number of studies, questions remain regarding the extent of these changes and how to analyse and visualise them across urban space. This paper reports on a spatial method which addresses the limitations of changing statistical boundaries to identify the changing patterns in Australian cities over time and space.     

Geochronology,stratigraphy and geochemistry of Cambro-Ordovician,Silurian and Devonian volcanic rocks of the Saxothuringian Zone in NE Bavaria (Germany)—new constraints for Gondwana break up and ocean–island magmatism

International Journal of Earth Sciences - Stratigraphically well-defined volcanic rocks in Palaeozoic volcano-sedimentary units of the Frankenwald area (Saxothuringian Zone, Variscan Orogen) were...     

Enhanced residual mean circulation during the evolution of split type sudden stratospheric warming in observations and model simulations

Residual mean circulation changes during the evolution of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) are investigated by composite analyses of 76 major warming events identified in a present day simulation performed with a coupled ocean–troposphere–stratosphere model from 299 winters. Their dynamical signatures are compared with the 17 SSW events identified from 35 years of Era-Interim data. The main difference is that, relative frequency of simulated SSW events is smaller than that obtained from reanalysis. SSW events are classified as displacement or split events based on the geopotential field values at 10 hPa. The geopotential field values identify 10 and 3 split events in simulation and observation respectively. The model quite accurately simulates some of the dynamical features associated with the major SSW. Residual mean circulation induced by EP-flux divergence, sum of advection and residual forcing are stronger in split events than in displacement type SSW has been confirmed by both simulation and observation. Moreover, the contribution of EP-flux divergence or planetary wave forcing is larger than the contribution of other types of forcing.     

Satellite estimates and subpixel variability of rainfall in a semi-arid grassland

卫星估雨精度的不确定性受到当地降雨类型和像元内降雨非均匀性影响,而结合这两个关键因素开展半干旱草原卫星估雨的研究有限.2009年夏,我们在中国锡林郭勒半干旱草原用多部微雨雷达和雨量计构建了9 km卫星像元降雨观测网,观测了像元内降雨非均匀性(空间变异系数CV),并评估了卫星估雨精度.结果表明:(1)CV值受像元内平均降雨量,降雨类型,降雨云面积及移向等影响,如高Cv值的降雨过程大多为平均降雨量小,对流性降雨过程,降雨云边缘像元CV值较高;(2)TRMM 3B42V7卫星估雨产品适用性较好,CMORPH和PERSIANN次之,但TRMM 3B42V7易在半干旱草原湖泊处高估降雨.     

Revealing hydrocarbon migration pathways

In this paper a general concept for revealing hydrocarbon migration pathways in rock sequences is introduced. The concept uses a multidisciplinary approach based on a geochemical and a petrophysical (or mineralogical) index. These two indices provide together the migration plot which shows the direction of hydrocarbon movement.With the help of this technique, serrerai hydrocarbon migration effects were established for a sequence of continous cores from the Upper Carboniferous. The results were verified by comparing gradients of hydrocarbon concentrations relative to pore volume. In this way the relative importance of individual migration pathways were recognized, as well as presently or formerly active migration pathways.The strong influence of permeability changes on hydrocarbon movement in source beds requires the use of the »atypical pore network« model to supplement the kerogen network model. Both models help in understanding the mechanisms of primary migration, but in certain stiuations, one might be more effective than the other.

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Zusammenfassung In diesem Aufsatz wird ein Konzept vorgestellt zur Erkennung von Erdölmigrationsbahnen in Gesteinsabfolgen. Das Konzept ist multidisziplinär ausgerichtet und beruht auf der Anwendung eines geochemischen und eines petrophysikalischen (oder mineralogischen) Parameters. Beide zusammen genommen erlauben die Erstellung eines Migrationsdiagramms, das angibt in welche Richtung sich die Kohlenwasserstoffe bewegen.Mittels dieser Methode wurden in einer fortlaufenden Abfolge von Bohrkernen aus dem Oberkarbon mehrere Trends für die Migrationsrichtung von Erdöl erkannt. Diese Trends wurden durch Vergleich mit Kohlenwasserstoffkonzentrationsgradienten, bezogen auf das Porenvolumen des Gesteins, verifiziert. Auf diese Art und Weise ließ sich sowohl die Bedeutung der einzelnen Migrationsbahnen relativieren als auch zwischen jetzigen und früheren Migrationswegen unterscheiden.Der starke Einfluß von Permeabilitätsänderungen auf die Bewegung von Kohlenwasserstoffen auch in Erdölmuttergesteinen fordert die Anwendung des »Atypischen Porennetzwerk-Modells« als Ergänzung zum Kerogennetzwerk-Modell. Beide Modelle tragen wesentlich zum Verständnis der Mechanismen der primären Migration von Erdöl bei, jedoch kann im Einzelfall die Verwendung des einen Modells effektiver sein als die des anderen.

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Résumé L'auteur présente une méthode générale permettant de déterminer le chemin suivi par les hydrocarbures lors de leur migration à travers les roches. Cette méthode utilise une approche multidisciplinaire basée sur un indice géochimique et un indice pétrophysique (ou minéralogique). Ces deux indices combinés fournissent l'indice de migration, qui indique la direction du déplacement des hydrocarbures.Cette méthode a permis d'établir les effets de plusieurs migrations d'hydrocarbure dans une série continue de carottes du Carbonifère supérieur. Les résultats obtenus ont été vérifiés en comparant les gradients du rapport concentration d'hydrocarbure/volume des pores. On peut reconnaître, de cette manière, l'importance relative des voies individuelles de migration, ainsi que celle des voies de migration actives aujourd'hui ou dans le passé.Etant donné le rôle important joué par les différences de perméabilité dans le déplacement des hydrocarbures au sein des roches, on se réfère au modèle Atypical Pore Network, qui complète le modèle Kerogene Network. Les deux modèles sont utilisés de manière complémentaire pour comprendre les mécanismes de la migration primaire; dans des cas extrêmes, l'un d'eux peut être plus effectif que l'autre.Cette approche constitue un nouveau pas vers une meilleure identification et une meilleure quantification des effets de la migration; elle offre des avantages considérables en raison de la diversité des paramètres qui peuvent être utilisés. Comme n'importe quel autre outil d'exploration, elle ne peut être utilisée seule dans les travaux d'évaluation et d'interprétation. Pour porter tous ses fruits, elle doit être intégrée aux données géologiques, géophysiques et surtout hydrodynamiques.

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The long-term dynamics of crustacean communities in Lake Constance (Obersee, 1962–1986)

The long-term development of crustacean associations in the Obersee of Lake Constance was studied at one central station from 1962 to 1986. In a simultaneously managed program with four additional stations from the eastern part (Bregenz Bay) to the western überlinger See mainly the differences in horizontal distribution were focussed. It was one aim of these investigations, to get an idea or an indication of a connexion between the recently observed eutrophication of the Obersee, and its crustacean communities. Due to the immigration of several species (cyclopids) or genotypes (Daphnia), the communities had changed in genetical structures, in reproduction rates and in predation or grazing impact. Dependent on the specific annual cycles, there resulted an extermination (Heterocope, Diaphanosoma), or a long-term decrease in annual means (Mesocyclops, Cyclops abyssorum) of the “old-settled” species. A general tendency was seen in an increase of annual averages until the middle of the seventies, and a following decrease of population density of most of the species. The horizontal differences in the species associations were remarkable. The Bregenz Bay showed an own aspect in its crustacean community with high total numbers and in earlier spring development. Most of the newcomers were concentrated in the eastern part of the lake.     

Tertiary basalts and peridotite xenoliths from the Hessian Depression (NW Germany), reflecting mantle compositions low in radiogenic Nd and Sr

A total of 17 alkali basalts (alkali olivine basalt, limburgite, olivine nephelinite) and quartz tholeiites, and of 10 peridotite xenoliths (or their clinopyroxenes) were analyzed for Nd and Sr isotopes. ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of all basalts and of the majority of ultramafic xenoliths plot below the mantle array with a large variation in Nd isotopes and a smaller variation in Sr isotopes. The tholeiites were less radiogenic in Nd than the alkali basalts. Volcanics from the Eifel and Massif Central regions contain Nd and Sr, which is more radiogenic than that of the basalts from the Hessian Depression. Nd and Sr isotopic compositions of all rocks from the latter area, with the exception of one tholeiite and one peridotite plot in the same field of isotope ratios as the Ronda ultramafic tectonite (SW Spain), which ranges in composition from garnet to plagioclase peridotite. The alkali basaltic rocks are products of smaller degrees of partial melting of depleted peridotite, which has undergone a larger metasomatic alteration compared with the source rock of tholeiitic magmas. For the peridotite xenoliths such metasomatic alteration is indicated by the correlation of their K contents and isotopic compositions. We assume that the upper mantle locally can acquire isotopic signatures low in radiogenic Nd and Sr from the introduction of delaminated crust. Such granulites low in radiogenic Nd and Sr are products of early REE fractionation and granite (Rb) separation.     

Direct measurements of latent heat during crystallization and melting of a ugandite and an olivine basalt

Step-scanning calorimetric measurements using a Setaram HT1500 calorimeter were performed between 800 and 1400°C on two natural samples: a ugandite from the East African rift and an olivine basalt from the western Mexican arc. Our measurements provide the first in-situ quantitative assessment of enthalpy during melting of initially crystalline natural samples. The distribution of latent heat across the liquidus-solidus intervals of the two samples is distinctly different, reflecting significant variation in the sequence and abundance of mineral phases during melting (clinopyroxene and leucite in the ugandite; olivine, clinopyroxene, and plagioclase in the basalt). Our data further indicate that the common assumption of a uniform distribution of latent heat across the liquidus-solidus interval of a magma is a reasonable approximation for the olivine basalt, but is grossly in error for the ugandite. This is due to cotectic precipitation of leucite and clinopyroxene, leading to a large, disproportionate release of latent heat early in the crystallization sequence. The implication for the thermal history of a crystallizing ugandite magma is that therate of heat loss during conductive cooling will unitially be more rapid than the average rate. The net result will be to produce lower magmatic temperatures after a given cooling interval relative to models assuming a uniform release of latent heat. An additional series of scanning calorimetric experiments were performed at variable rates (1,2 and 3°/min) to evaluate the role of kinetics on the distribution of enthalpy during both melting and crystallization of the ugandite and olivine basalt. The results indicate that clinopyroxene is the most important mineral phase in controlling the shapes of the enthalpy profiles during cooling; this is due to its large enthalpy of fusion and its tendency for sluggish nucleation, followed by rapid crystallization at temperatures that vary with cooling rate. The resolution of the calorimeter (in terms of heat detected per unit time) is also important in determining the shapes of theobserved enthalpy profiles during these rapid scans. Estimates based on the observed calorimetric signal associated with melting of olivine, and the lack of a calorimetric signal during melting of leucite, combined with known enthalpies of fusion for the two phases, indicate detection limits of approximately 0.6–1.2 kJ per 5 min increments.