Estimates of the Climate Response to Aircraft CO2 and NO x Emissions Scenarios

A combination of linear response models is used to estimate the transient changes in the global means of carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration, surface temperature, and sea level due to aviation. Apart from CO₂, the forcing caused by ozone (O₃) changes due to nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions from aircraft is also considered. The model is applied to aviation using several CO₂ emissions scenarios, based on reported fuel consumption in the past and scenarios for the future, and corresponding NO_x emissions. Aviation CO₂ emissions from the past until 1995 enlarged the atmospheric CO₂ concentration by 1.4 ppmv (1.7% of the anthropogenic CO₂ increase since 1800). By 1995, the global mean surface temperature had increased by about 0.004 K, and the sea level had risen by 0.045 cm. In one scenario (Fa1), which assumes a threefold increase in aviation fuel consumption until 2050 and an annual increase rate of 1% thereafter until 2100, the model predicts a CO₂ concentration change of 13 ppmv by 2100, causing temperature increases of 0.01, 0.025, 0.05 K and sea level increases of 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5 cm in the years 2015, 2050, and 2100, respectively. For other recently published scenarios, the results range from 5 to 17 ppmv for CO₂ concentration increase in the year 2050, and 0.02 to 0.05 K for temperature increase. Under the assumption that present-day aircraft-induced O₃ changes cause an equilibrium surface warming of 0.05 K, the transient responses amount to 0.03 K in surface temperature for scenario Fa1 in 1995. The radiative forcing due to an aircraft-induced O₃ increase causes a larger temperature change than aircraft CO₂ forcing. Also, climate reacts more promptly to changes in O₃ than to changes in CO₂ emissions from aviation. Finally, even under the assumption of a rather small equilibrium temperature change from aircraft-induced O₃ (0.01 K for the 1992 NO_x emissions), a proposed new combustor technology which reduces specific NO_x emissions will cause a smaller temperature change during the next century than the standard technology does, despite a slightly enhanced fuel consumption. Regional effects are not considered here, but may be larger than the global mean responses.     

Development and Intercomparison of Condensed Isoprene Oxidation Mechanisms for Global Atmospheric Modeling

A new condensed isoprene oxidation mechanism forglobal atmospheric modeling (MIM) was derived from ahighly detailed master chemical mechanism (MCM). In abox model intercomparison covering a wide range ofboundary layer conditions the MIM was compared withthe MCM and with five other condensed mechanisms, someof which have already been used in global modelingstudies of nonmethane hydrocarbon chemistry. Theresults of MCM and MIM were generally in goodagreement, but the other tested mechanisms exhibitedsubstantial differences relative to the MCM as well asrelative to each other. Different formation yields,reactivities and degradation pathways of organicnitrates formed in the course of isoprene oxidationwere identified as a major reason for the deviations.The relevance of the box model results for chemistrytransport models is discussed, and the need for avalidated reference mechanism and for an improvedrepresentation of isoprene chemistry in global modelsis pointed out.     

Time-dependent greenhouse warming computations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

Climate changes during the next 100 years caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have been simulated for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scenarios A (business as usual) and D (accelerated policies) using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. In the global average, the near-surface temperature rises by 2.6 K in Scenario A and by 0.6 K in Scenario D. The global patterns of climate change for both IPCC scenarios and for a third step-function 2 x CO₂ experiment were found to be very similar. The warming delay over the oceans is larger than found in simulations with atmospheric general circulation models coupled to mixed-layer models, leading to a more pronounced land-sea contrast and a weaker warming (and in some regions even an initial cooling) in the Southern Ocean. During the first forty years, the global warming and sea level rise due to the thermal expansion of the ocean are significantly slower than estimated previously from box-diffusion-upwelling models, but the major part of this delay can be attributed to the previous warming history prior to the start of present coupled ocean-atmosphere model integration (cold start).     

Mass transfer during sub-seafloor alteration of the upper Troodos crust (Cyprus)

Five major alteration zones in the Extrusive Series and the Sheeted Dike Complex of the Troodos Ophiolite are each characterized by (a) distinct elemental changes compared to the original composition and (b) secondary mineralogy. The upper ca. 300 m of the extrusive crust, the highly oxidatedcold seawater alteration zone (CSA), is strongly enriched in K₂O and depleted in Na₂O. It is followed downwards by alow temperature alteration zone (<170° C) which is most widespread in the Troodos extrusives and where Na₂O and K₂O are enriched, the latter less strongly than in the CSA zone. Three types ofhigh temperature alteration zones (<440° C; HTA I–III) are found in the Sheeted Dike Complex. All are marked by thorough leaching of K₂O, while the behavior of Na₂O (e.g. unchanged in type III) and CaO (depleted in type I, enriched in types II, III) is variable. Mass budgets of elemental changes are quantified by calibration of whole rock analyses via systematic stable element variations of fresh glasses found throughout the extrusive section. The Troodos extrusive crust and upper Sheeted Dike Complex are a major sink for MgO, K₂O, and Na₂O, and a source for CaO; the overall scale of fluxes drastically exceeds estimates based on fresh basalt compositions from present ocean crust.     

The change of North China climate in transient simulations using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

This paper applies the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, namely IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigate the change of the North China climate with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. In the last three decades of the 21st century, the global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast, and hence, causes the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation to be strengthened (weakened). The rainfall seasonality strengthens and the summer precipitation increases significantly in North China. It is suggested that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward to North China in the last three decades of the 21st century. In addition, the North China precipitation would increase significantly in September. In July, August, and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enlarges evidentlv over North China. implying a risk of flooding in the future.     

The Mount Wilson Ca <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">ii</Emphasis> K Plage Index Time Series

It is well established that both total and spectral solar irradiance are modulated by variable magnetic activity on the solar surface. However, there is still disagreement about the contribution of individual solar features for changes in the solar output, in particular over decadal time scales. Ionized Ca ii K line spectroheliograms are one of the major resources for these long-term trend studies, mainly because such measurements have been available now for more than 100 years. In this paper we introduce a new Ca ii K plage and active network index time series derived from the digitization of almost 40 000 photographic solar images that were obtained at the 60-foot solar tower, between 1915 and 1985, as a part of the monitoring program of the Mount Wilson Observatory. We describe here the procedure we applied to calibrate the images and the properties of our new defined index, which is strongly correlated to the average fractional area of the visible solar disk occupied by plages and active network. We show that the long-term variation of this index is in an excellent agreement with the 11-year solar-cycle trend determined from the annual international sunspot numbers series. Our time series agrees also very well with similar indicators derived from a different reduction of the same data base and other Ca ii K spectroheliograms long-term synoptic programs, such as those at Kodaikanal Observatory (India), and at the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak (USA). Finally, we show that using appropriate proxies it is possible to extend this time series up to date, making this data set one of the longest Ca ii K index series currently available.     

Reconstruction of the differentiated long-term exhumation history of Fuerteventura, Canary Islands, Spain, through fission-track and (U-Th–Sm)/He data

Miocene Intrusives and Lower Cretaceous siliciclastic sedimentary rocks from the Basal Complex in western-Fuerteventura were analyzed with low-temperature thermochronometric methods such as fission-track, and (U–Th–Sm)/He dating, in order to reveal the evolution of the island’s exhumation history. The obtained thermochronometric data yields a very slow rate of cooling in the order of 1.5–3°C/Myr from ~50 to 20 Ma for the Early Cretaceous siliciclastic rocks. These sedimentary units have never been heated significantly above 240°C after deposition and still record the submarine onset of the island’s formation in the Eocene. Intrusive bodies associated with the early Miocene magmatic activity of the central volcanic complex of the island show rapid initial cooling rates of 50–70°C/Myr from ~20 to 14 Ma. Contemporaneous with the intrusions the cooling rate of the Cretaceous sedimentary units increased to 25–35°C/Myr and it is inferred that this increase is associated with enhanced uplift and erosion of the Central Volcanic Complex. After ~14 Ma rates slowed down to 3–6°C/Myr. Palaeosols overlying the sedimentary units are themselves covered by Pliocene basalt flows and reveal that the sedimentary rocks reached the surface before ~5 Ma. The thermochronometric data obtained in this study for central Fuerteventura is difficult to reconcile with the cooling history derived from previously obtained fission-track and K–Ar data from the north-western part of the island. This inconsistency is likely to indicate that the exhumation history of Fuerteventura is more complex and regionally subdivided than previously believed.     

Spectral Line Selection for HMI: A Comparison of Fe I 6173 Å and Ni I 6768 Å

We present a study of two spectral lines, Fe I 6173 Å and Ni I 6768 Å, that were candidates to be used in the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) for observing Doppler velocity and the vector magnetic field. The line profiles were studied using the Mt. Wilson Observatory, the Advanced Stokes Polarimeter and the Kitt Peak-McMath Pierce telescope and one-meter Fourier transform spectrometer atlas. Both Fe I and Ni I profiles have clean continua and no blends that threaten instrument performance. The Fe I line is 2% deeper, 15% narrower, and has a 6% smaller equivalent width than the Ni I line. The potential of each spectral line to recover pre-assigned solar conditions is tested using a least-squares minimization technique to fit Milne-Eddington models to tens of thousands of line profiles that have been sampled at five spectral positions across the line. Overall, the Fe I line has a better performance than the Ni I line for vector-magnetic-field retrieval. Specifically, the Fe I line is able to determine field strength, longitudinal and transverse flux four times more accurately than the Ni I line in active regions. Inclination and azimuthal angles can be recovered to ≈2^° above 600 Mx cm^?2 for Fe I and above 1000 Mx cm^?2 for Ni I. Therefore, the Fe I line better determines the magnetic-field orientation in plage, whereas both lines provide good orientation determination in penumbrae and umbrae. We selected the Fe I spectral line for use in HMI due to its better performance for magnetic diagnostics while not sacrificing velocity information. The one exception to the better performance of the Fe I line arises when high field strengths combine with high velocities to move the spectral line beyond the effective sampling range. The higher g _eff of Fe I means that its useful range of velocity values in regions of strong magnetic field is smaller than Ni I.     

Noble gases and nitrogen in Martian meteorites Dar al Gani 476, Sayh al Uhaymir 005 and Lewis Cliff 88516: EFA and extra neon

Meteorite “finds” from the terrestrial hot deserts have become a major contributor to the inventory of Martian meteorites. In order to understand their nitrogen and noble gas components, we have carried out stepped heating experiments on samples from two Martian meteorites collected from hot deserts. We measured interior and surface bulk samples, glassy and non-glassy portions of Dar al Gani 476 and Sayh al Uhaymir 005. We have also analyzed noble gases released from the Antarctic shergottite Lewis Cliff 88516 by crushing and stepped heating. For the hot desert meteorites significant terrestrial Ar, Kr, Xe contamination is observed, with an elementally fractionated air (EFA) component dominating the low temperature releases. The extremely low Ar/Kr/Xe ratios of EFA may be the result of multiple episodes of trapping/loss during terrestrial alteration involving aqueous fluids. We suggest fractionation processes similar to those in hot deserts to have acted on Mars, with acidic weathering on the latter possibly even more effective in producing elementally fractionated components. Addition from fission xenon is apparent in DaG 476 and SaU 005. The Ar-Kr-Xe patterns for LEW 88516 show trends as typically observed in shergottites - including evidence for a crush-released component similar to that observed in EETA 79001. A trapped Ne component most prominent in the surface sample of DaG 476 may represent air contamination. It is accompanied by little trapped Ar (²⁰Ne/³⁶Ar > 50) and literature data suggest its presence also in some Antarctic finds. Data for LEW 88516 and literature data, on the other hand, suggest the presence of two trapped Ne components of Martian origin characterized by different ²⁰Ne/²²Ne, possibly related to the atmosphere and the interior. Caution is recommended in interpreting nitrogen and noble gas isotopic signatures of Martian meteorites from hot deserts in terms of extraterrestrial sources and processes. Nevertheless our results provide hope that vice-versa, via noble gases and nitrogen in meteorites and other relevant samples from terrestrial deserts, Martian secondary processes can be studied.     

苏鲁超高压变质岩的构造热历史：中国大陆科学钻探工程(CCSD)主孔（MH）和先导孔（PP2）的磷灰石裂变径迹约束

本文包括中国大陆科学钻（CCSD）主孔（MH）0~5000m和先导孔（PP2）0~1000m的磷灰石裂变径迹分折结果,先导孔PP2的裂变径迹表观年龄变化范围为79.5±5.1~50.4±6.2Ma,主孔的裂变径迹表观年龄变化范围为98.6±17.0~2.9±2.0Ma,主孔在4200m以下,磷灰石样品中实际上已不存在自发裂变径迹,表明裂变径迹时钟已经“置零”。实验资料表明,裂变径迹表观年龄值随样品深度的增加而逐渐减少,直到一定深度,即达到磷灰石的裂变径迹封闭温度（~120℃）以后,年龄值为零。根据主孔0~2000m和先导孔0~1000m的裂变径迹年龄剖面,作为一级近似,计算出超高压变质岩体在90~30Ma期间,平均隆升速度为~35m/Ma。对主孔测定了9个样品的约束径迹（Confined track）长度,样品约束径迹平均长度的变化范围约为13.1~7.4μm,总的变化趋势是：约束径迹平均长度随样品深度的增加而逐渐减少。样品的约束径迹长度分布都具有双峰型特征。根据裂变径迹年龄和约束径迹长度的资料,应用计算机模拟得到了样品的时间-温度（t-T）轨迹。结果表明,岩体从早白垩世（~120Ma）快速冷却以后,在晚白垩世和始新世又经历了两次加热作用,始新世末岩体所达到的温度大约是80℃,随后岩体则一直上升和缓慢冷却到现今所处的位置。在最后~30Ma岩体的平均隆升速度为~53m/Ma。