Risk-targeted seismic design maps for mainland France

In this article, the recently proposed approach known as ‘risk targeting’ for the development of national seismic design maps is investigated for mainland France. Risk targeting leads to ground-motion maps that, if used for design purposes, would lead to a uniform level of risk nationally. The Eurocode 8 design loads currently in force for France are used as the basis of this study. Because risk targeting requires various choices on, for example, the level of acceptable risk to be made a priori and these choices are not solely engineering decisions but involve input from decision makers we undertake sensitivity tests to study their influence. It is found that, in contrast to applications of this methodology for US cities, risk targeting does not lead to large modifications with respect to the national seismic hazard map nor to changes in the relative ranking of cities with respect to their design ground motions. This is because the hazard curves for French cities are almost parallel. In addition, we find that using a target annual collapse probability of about 10^?5 for seismically designed buildings and a probability of collapse when subjected to the design PGA of 10^?5 leads to reasonable results. This is again in contrast to US studies that have adopted much higher values for both these probabilities.     

Carbon isotope stratigraphy of Lochkovian to Eifelian limestones from the Devonian of central and southern Europe

Lower to Middle Devonian carbonates of the Prague Syncline, the Carnic Alps, the Montagne Noire, and the Cantabrian Mountains were investigated for δ¹³C_carb and δ¹³C_org. These values were measured on bulk rocks, selected components and cements. Many carbonates exhibit primary marine values, but some are altered by diagenesis. A δ¹³C curve can be presented for the latest Pridolian to Emsian time interval. Several sharp or broad positive excursions are obvious in the woschmidti-postwoschmidti, sulcatus, kitabicus, Late serotinus, and kockelianus conodont zones. The excursion at the Silurian–Devonian boundary is known worldwide and therefore considered global in nature. Some of the others are described for the first time from central and southern Europe, and their global nature has to be verified by further investigations in other regions. Most excursions relate to and/or started during major regressions whereas sea-level highstands correspond to minimal δ¹³C values. Similar relationships between sea-level changes and δ¹³C have been observed from other early Palaeozoic intervals. The transgressive Chote? (?) and Ka?ák events are marked by positive isotope excursions, this type of combination is usually observed in late Palaeozoic to Cenozoic black shale events.     

Impacts of tectonic and orbital forcing on East African climate: a comparison based on global climate model simulations

A global atmosphere–ocean model has been forced with topographic and orbital scenarios in order to evaluate the relative role of both factors for the past climate of East Africa. Forcing the model with a significantly reduced topography in Eastern and Southern Africa leads to a distinct increase in moisture transport from the Indian Ocean into the eastern part of the continent and increased precipitation in Eastern Africa. Simulations with step-wise reduced height show that this climate change occurs continuously with the change in topography, i.e., an abrupt change of local climatic features with a critical height is not found. Simulations of the last interglacial (at 125,000 years before present, i.e., the Eemian interglacial) and the last glacial inception (at 115,000 years before present) are used as examples for the role of orbital-induced changes in insolation. Here, changes in meridional temperature gradients lead to modifications in moisture transport of similar order of magnitude, but with different spatial and seasonal structure. For the Eemian interglacial, a distinct increase in summer moisture transport from the Atlantic deep into the continent at around 20°N is simulated.     

Petrographische Untersuchungen des Suevit aus den Bohrungen Deiningen und Wörnitzostheim im Ries von Nördlingen

Zusammenfassung In den Bohrungen Deiningen (D.) und Wörnitzostheim (W.) im Nördlinger Ries wurde unter tertiären Seesedimenten eine 40 m bzw. 70 m mächtige Suevitabfolge aufgeschlossen. Diese Breccie, bestehend aus zertrümmertem kristallinem Grundgebirge mit verschiedenen Anzeichen einer Stoßwellenmetamorphose und aus Glasbomben, wurde mineralogisch und petrographisch untersucht.Korngrößenanalysen zeigen in beiden Profilen eine allmähliche Zunahme des Mediandurchmessers von oben nach unten (D.: 0,1···0,4 mm; W.: 1···6 mm). Die Kornverteilungskurve von W. ist bimodal; das Hauptmaximum wird überwiegend aus grobkörnigen Gesteinsgläsern gebildet, ein kleineres Maximum liegt bei 0,2–0,6 mm und enthält bevorzugt Grundgebirgseinschlüsse.Das Verhältnis von Gesteinsgläsern: Kristallinkomponenten beträgt in D. etwa 30 70, in W. 60 40. Der Suevit von W. enthält durchschnittlich 28% Porenraum und 1–2% Neubildungen; seine Glassubstanz ist überwiegend frisch. Im Suevit von D. sind die Gläser sekundär zersetzt und bedingen höhere Porenvolumina (34–36%) und eine stärkere Verwitterungsneubildung (6–10%; Montmorillonit, Montmorillonit-Illit-Wechsellagerung, Karbonate und Analcim).Einzelminerale in der Kornfraktion 0,063–0,125 mm verteilen sich bei den Leicht-mineralen (d<2,96 g/cm³; Neubildungen nicht berücksichtigt) auf Feldspäte (D.: 56%; W.: 44%), Quarz (D.: 32%; W.: 28%), Biotit (D.: 5%; W.: <1%), Hornblende (D.: 2%; W.: -) und Gläser (D.: 3%; W.: 27%); der Anteil der Schwerminerale beträgt in D. 3–4% (Biotit, Opakes — Hornblende, Granat, Turmalin), in W. 0,5–0,8% (Opakes, Zirkon — Biotit, Rutil).Die chemische Zusammensetzung der Suevit- und Glasproben von W. ist dem granodioritischen Magmentyp ähnlich; die Suevitproben von D. weisen höhere Alkaligehalte auf.

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Underlying miocene lake sediments, suevite was found in the drill holes of Deiningen (D.) and Wörnitzostheim (W.), 40 meters and 70 meters thick, respectively. This breccia, containing glass and shattered crystalline rocks, in different stages of shock metamorphism, was examined by mineralogical and petrographical methods.In the two suevite profiles medians of grain size distributions gradually increase from top to bottom (D.: 0,1···0,4 mm; W.: 1···6 mm). The grain size distributions of W. are bimodal; the first maximum is mainly formed by coarse grained glass, the second (smaller) maximum (0,2···0,6 mm) contains crystalline components. The ratio of melted rocks: crystalline components is 3070 at D. and 6040 at W. Suevite from the latter locality has a total porosity of 28% (average) and contains 1–2% autigenic minerals; the glasses are mostly fresh. In the D. suevite decomposition of the glass has produced higher porosities (34–36%) and more autigenic minerals (6–10%: montmorillonite, mixed-layer minerals montmorillonite-illite, carbonates, analcime).Mineral composition was determined for the grain sizes from 0,063 to 0,125 mm. The light minerals (d<2,96 g/cm³, without autigenic minerals) comprise: feldspars (D.: 56%; W.: 44%), quartz (D.: 32%; W.: 28%), biotite (D.: 5%; W.: < 1%), hornblende (D.: 2%; W.: -) and glass (D.: 3%; W.: 27%); heavy-mineral content is 3–4% at D. (biotite, opaque minerals — hornblende, garnet, tourmaline) and 0,5–0,8% at W. (opaque minerals, zircon — biotite, rutile).The chemical composition of suevite and glass samples from W. is similar to granodiorite type rock. The suevite of D. contains more potassium and sodium.

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Meinem verehrten Lehrer, Herrn Prof. Dr. W. v. Engelhardt, danke ich für die Überlassung des Themas und alle Förderung meiner Arbeit. Für fördernden Rat danke ich ferner den Herren Dr. F. Lippmann und Dr. D. Stöffler.

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Der Deutschen Erdöl AG, insbesondere Herrn Prof. Dr. F. Hecht, danke ich für die Überlassung der Bohrkerne von Deiningen.

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Der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft danke ich für die finanzielle Unterstützung dieser Arbeit.     

Emerging Technologies and Synergies for Airborne and Space-Based Measurements of Water Vapor Profiles

A deeper understanding of how clouds will respond to a warming climate is one of the outstanding challenges in climate science. Uncertainties in the response of clouds, and particularly shallow clouds, have been identified as the dominant source of the discrepancy in model estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity. As the community gains a deeper understanding of the many processes involved, there is a growing appreciation of the critical role played by fluctuations in water vapor and the coupling of water vapor and atmospheric circulations. Reduction of uncertainties in cloud-climate feedbacks and convection initiation as well as improved understanding of processes governing these effects will result from profiling of water vapor in the lower troposphere with improved accuracy and vertical resolution compared to existing airborne and space-based measurements. This paper highlights new technologies and improved measurement approaches for measuring lower tropospheric water vapor and their expected added value to current observations. Those include differential absorption lidar and radar, microwave occultation between low-Earth orbiters, and hyperspectral microwave remote sensing. Each methodology is briefly explained, and measurement capabilities as well as the current technological readiness for aircraft and satellite implementation are specified. Potential synergies between the technologies are discussed, actual examples hereof are given, and future perspectives are explored. Based on technical maturity and the foreseen near-mid-term development path of the various discussed measurement approaches, we find that improved measurements of water vapor throughout the troposphere would greatly benefit from the combination of differential absorption lidar focusing on the lower troposphere with passive remote sensors constraining the upper-tropospheric humidity.     

Real-time envelope cross-correlation detector: application to induced seismicity in the Insheim and Landau deep geothermal reservoirs

We develop and test a real-time envelope cross-correlation detector for use in seismic response plans to mitigate hazard of induced seismicity. The incoming seismological data are cross-correlated in real-time with a set of previously recorded master events. For robustness against small changes in the earthquake source locations or in the focal mechanisms we cross-correlate the envelopes of the seismograms rather than the seismograms themselves. Two sequenced detection conditions are implemented: After passing a single trace cross-correlation condition, a network cross-correlation is calculated taking amplitude ratios between stations into account. Besides detecting the earthquake and assigning it to the respective reservoir, real-time magnitudes are important for seismic response plans. We estimate the magnitudes of induced microseismicity using the relative amplitudes between master event and detected event. The real-time detector is implemented as a SeisComP3 module. We carry out offline and online performance tests using seismic monitoring data of the Insheim and Landau geothermal power plants (Upper Rhine Graben, Germany), also including blasts from a nearby quarry. The comparison of the automatic real-time catalogue with a manually processed catalogue shows, that with the implemented parameters events are always correctly assigned to the respective reservoir (4 km distance between reservoirs) or the quarry (8 km and 10 km distance, respectively, from the reservoirs). The real-time catalogue achieves a magnitude of completeness around 0.0. Four per cent of the events assigned to the Insheim reservoir and zero per cent of the Landau events are misdetections. All wrong detections are local tectonic events, whereas none are caused by seismic noise.     

Revealing hydrocarbon migration pathways

In this paper a general concept for revealing hydrocarbon migration pathways in rock sequences is introduced. The concept uses a multidisciplinary approach based on a geochemical and a petrophysical (or mineralogical) index. These two indices provide together the migration plot which shows the direction of hydrocarbon movement.With the help of this technique, serrerai hydrocarbon migration effects were established for a sequence of continous cores from the Upper Carboniferous. The results were verified by comparing gradients of hydrocarbon concentrations relative to pore volume. In this way the relative importance of individual migration pathways were recognized, as well as presently or formerly active migration pathways.The strong influence of permeability changes on hydrocarbon movement in source beds requires the use of the »atypical pore network« model to supplement the kerogen network model. Both models help in understanding the mechanisms of primary migration, but in certain stiuations, one might be more effective than the other.

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Zusammenfassung In diesem Aufsatz wird ein Konzept vorgestellt zur Erkennung von Erdölmigrationsbahnen in Gesteinsabfolgen. Das Konzept ist multidisziplinär ausgerichtet und beruht auf der Anwendung eines geochemischen und eines petrophysikalischen (oder mineralogischen) Parameters. Beide zusammen genommen erlauben die Erstellung eines Migrationsdiagramms, das angibt in welche Richtung sich die Kohlenwasserstoffe bewegen.Mittels dieser Methode wurden in einer fortlaufenden Abfolge von Bohrkernen aus dem Oberkarbon mehrere Trends für die Migrationsrichtung von Erdöl erkannt. Diese Trends wurden durch Vergleich mit Kohlenwasserstoffkonzentrationsgradienten, bezogen auf das Porenvolumen des Gesteins, verifiziert. Auf diese Art und Weise ließ sich sowohl die Bedeutung der einzelnen Migrationsbahnen relativieren als auch zwischen jetzigen und früheren Migrationswegen unterscheiden.Der starke Einfluß von Permeabilitätsänderungen auf die Bewegung von Kohlenwasserstoffen auch in Erdölmuttergesteinen fordert die Anwendung des »Atypischen Porennetzwerk-Modells« als Ergänzung zum Kerogennetzwerk-Modell. Beide Modelle tragen wesentlich zum Verständnis der Mechanismen der primären Migration von Erdöl bei, jedoch kann im Einzelfall die Verwendung des einen Modells effektiver sein als die des anderen.

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Résumé L'auteur présente une méthode générale permettant de déterminer le chemin suivi par les hydrocarbures lors de leur migration à travers les roches. Cette méthode utilise une approche multidisciplinaire basée sur un indice géochimique et un indice pétrophysique (ou minéralogique). Ces deux indices combinés fournissent l'indice de migration, qui indique la direction du déplacement des hydrocarbures.Cette méthode a permis d'établir les effets de plusieurs migrations d'hydrocarbure dans une série continue de carottes du Carbonifère supérieur. Les résultats obtenus ont été vérifiés en comparant les gradients du rapport concentration d'hydrocarbure/volume des pores. On peut reconnaître, de cette manière, l'importance relative des voies individuelles de migration, ainsi que celle des voies de migration actives aujourd'hui ou dans le passé.Etant donné le rôle important joué par les différences de perméabilité dans le déplacement des hydrocarbures au sein des roches, on se réfère au modèle Atypical Pore Network, qui complète le modèle Kerogene Network. Les deux modèles sont utilisés de manière complémentaire pour comprendre les mécanismes de la migration primaire; dans des cas extrêmes, l'un d'eux peut être plus effectif que l'autre.Cette approche constitue un nouveau pas vers une meilleure identification et une meilleure quantification des effets de la migration; elle offre des avantages considérables en raison de la diversité des paramètres qui peuvent être utilisés. Comme n'importe quel autre outil d'exploration, elle ne peut être utilisée seule dans les travaux d'évaluation et d'interprétation. Pour porter tous ses fruits, elle doit être intégrée aux données géologiques, géophysiques et surtout hydrodynamiques.

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Monitoring of atmospheric deposition in European forests and an overview on its implication on forest condition

Forest conditions in Europe have been monitored over 20 years jointly by the International Cooperative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests) and the European Union (EU). Maps for mean bulk SO₄, NO₃ and NH₄ deposition at around 400 intensive monitoring plots in the years 1999–2001, as well as time trends for the period 1996–2001, are presented. Mean bulk SO₄ deposition at 169 plots mostly located in central Europe decreased from 7.4 to 5.8 kgS ha⁻¹ a⁻¹. Mean NH₄ bulk deposition decreased from 6.2 to 5.3 kgN ha⁻¹ a⁻¹. Nitrate bulk deposition fluctuated around 5 kgN ha⁻¹ a⁻¹. On average, throughfall deposition was considerably higher than bulk deposition. Time trends for mean tree crown defoliation as an overall indicator for forest condition show a peak in the mid 1990s for most of the monitored main tree species and a recent increase for the years 2003 and 2004. Multivariate linear regression analyses show some significant relations between deposition and defoliation. These relations depend on the tree species and site characteristics. Effects of deposition are moderated by the influence of biotic stress factors such as insects and fungi and by abiotic stress factors, such as weather.     

Is pure groundwater safe to drink?: natural "contamination' of groundwater in Norway

The title of this article is designed to provoke. Naturally occurring parameters are, by definition, not contamination. Nevertheless, nature is not necessarily nice, and naturally occurring trace toxins can be every bit as undesirable as their counterparts derived from human pollution.     

Luminescence dating of ice‐marginal deposits in northern Germany: evidence for repeated glaciations during the Middle Pleistocene (MIS 12 to MIS 6)

The exact number, extent and chronology of the Middle Pleistocene Elsterian and Saalian glaciations in northern Central Europe are still controversial. This study presents new luminescence data from Middle Pleistocene ice‐marginal deposits in northern Germany, giving evidence for repeated glaciations during the Middle Pleistocene (MIS 12 to MIS 6). The study area is located in the Leine valley south of the North German Lowlands. The data set includes digital elevation models, high‐resolution shear wave seismic profiles, outcrop and borehole data integrated into a 3D subsurface model to reconstruct the bedrock relief surface. For numerical age determination, we performed luminescence dating on 12 ice‐marginal and two fluvial samples. Luminescence ages of ice‐marginal deposits point to at least two ice advances during MIS 12 and MIS 10 with ages ranging from 461±34 to 421±25 ka and from 376±27 to 337±21 ka. The bedrock relief model and different generations of striations indicate that the older ice advance came from the north and the younger one from the northeast. During rapid ice‐margin retreat, subglacial overdeepenings were filled with glaciolacustrine deposits, partly rich in re‐worked Tertiary lignite and amber. During MIS 8 and MIS 6, the study area may have been affected by two ice advances. Luminescence ages of glaciolacustrine delta deposits point to a deposition during MIS 8 or early MIS 6, and late MIS 6 (250±20 to 161±10 ka). The maximum extent of both the Elsterian (MIS 12 and MIS 10) and Saalian glaciations (MIS 8? and MIS 6) approximately reached the same position in the Leine valley and was probably controlled by the formation of deep proglacial lakes in front of the ice sheets, preventing a further southward advance.