Automated facies identification by Direct Push-based sensing methods (CPT,HPT) and multivariate linear discriminant analysis to decipher geomorphological changes and storm surge impact on a medieval coastal landscape

In ad 1362, a major storm surge drowned wide areas of cultivated medieval marshland along the north-western coast of Germany and turned them into tidal flats. This study presents a new methodological approach for the reconstruction of changing coastal landscapes developed from a study site in the Wadden Sea of North Frisia. Initially, we deciphered long-term as well as event-related short-term geomorphological changes, using a geoscientific standard approach of vibracoring, analyses of sedimentary, geochemical and microfaunal palaeoenvironmental parameters and radiocarbon dating. In a next step, Direct Push (DP)-based Cone Penetration Testing (CPT) and the Hydraulic Profiling Tool (HPT) were applied at vibracore locations to obtain in situ high-resolution stratigraphic data. In a last step, multivariate linear discriminant analysis (LDA) was successfully applied to efficiently identify different sedimentary facies (e.g., fossil marsh or tidal flat deposits) from the CPT and HPT test dataset, to map the facies' lateral distribution, also in comparison to reflection seismic measurements and test their potential to interpolate the borehole and CPT/HPT data. The training dataset acquired for the key site from coring and DP sensing finally allows an automated facies classification of CPT/HPT data obtained elsewhere within the study area. The new methodological approach allowed a detailed reconstruction of the local coastal landscape development in the interplay of natural marsh formation, medieval land reclamation and storm surge-related land losses.     

Five centuries of Southern Moravian drought variations revealed from living and historic tree rings

Past, present, and projected fluctuations of the hydrological cycle, associated to anthropogenic climate change, describe a pending challenge for natural ecosystems and human civilizations. Here, we compile and analyze long meteorological records from Brno, Czech Republic and nearby tree-ring measurements of living and historic firs from Southern Moravia. This unique paleoclimatic compilation together with innovative reconstruction methods and error estimates allows regional-scale May?CJune drought variability to be estimated back to ad 1500. Driest and wettest conditions occurred in 1653 and 1713, respectively. The ten wettest decades are evenly distributed throughout time, whereas the driest episodes occurred in the seventeenth century and from the 1840s onward. Discussion emphasizes agreement between the new reconstruction and documentary evidence, and stresses possible sources of reconstruction uncertainty including station inhomogeneity, limited frequency preservation, reduced climate sensitivity, and large-scale constraints.     

Meteorological Observations in 1999 at the Arctic Station,Qeqertarsuaq (Godhavn), Central West Greenland/Evidence of a warmer climate around AD 600, Mittivakkat Glacier,South East Greenland

In october 1990 an automatic weather station was established at the Arctic Station (65° 15', 53°31'W), Qeqertarsuaq (Godhavn), Central West Greenland. The Station register parameters each 20 minutes, and the paramters have been described in an earlier paper in this journal by Nielsen et al.(1995). The present paper summarizes meteorological parameters during 1999.

During a field campaign in 1999, woody remains from Salix glauca were found on a nunatak, 515 m. a.s.l. on the Mittivakkat Glacier, South East Greenland. Radio carbon dating determined the age of a wood sample to AD 640. Together with analyses of macroscopic botanical remains and insect rests in peaty material found nearby, these results indicate, that a warmer climate prevailed near the glacier around AD 600. These findings are in accordance with temperature records based on studies of ice cores from the Greenland Ice sheet.     

New high‐resolution age data from the Ediacaran–Cambrian boundary indicate rapid,ecologically driven onset of the Cambrian explosion

The replacement of the late Precambrian Ediacaran biota by morphologically disparate animals at the beginning of the Phanerozoic was a key event in the history of life on Earth, the mechanisms and the time‐scales of which are not entirely understood. A composite section in Namibia providing biostratigraphic and chemostratigraphic data bracketed by radiometric dating constrains the Ediacaran–Cambrian boundary to 538.6–538.8 Ma, more than 2 Ma younger than previously assumed. The U–Pb‐CA‐ID TIMS zircon ages demonstrate an ultrashort time frame for the LAD of the Ediacaran biota to the FAD of a complex, burrowing Phanerozoic biota represented by trace fossils to a 410 ka time window of 538.99 ± 0.21 Ma to 538.58 ± 0.19 Ma. The extremely short duration of the faunal transition from Ediacaran to Cambrian biota within less than 410 ka supports models of ecological cascades that followed the evolutionary breakthrough of increased mobility at the beginning of the Phanerozoic.     

Competitive effects of fish in structurally simple habitats: perch,invertebrates, and goldeneye in small boreal lakes

We determined the associations between Eurasian perch Perca fluviatilis, invertebrates, and common goldeneye Bucephala clangula in boreal lakes. Our aim was to test the hypothesis that perch play a controlling role in small, oligotrophic, acidic, and poorly vegetated boreal lakes, affecting both invertebrate numbers and community structure. In addition, we predicted that perch impact lake usage by goldeneye. In the observational part of our study, we first explored the association between perch, invertebrates and goldeneye (pairs and broods per shore km) in 18 boreal, poorly vegetated lakes. Perch densities were associated negatively with invertebrate abundance and lake usage by goldeneye broods. In the experimental part in three fish-free lakes, we found that upon successful perch introductions, the number and biomass of invertebrates, the proportion of large dytiscids, and lake usage by goldeneye broods significantly decreased. We conclude that perch apparently plays a key role as a predator of invertebrates in boreal lakes with few aquatic macrophytes. It is evident that perch can strongly affect their prey populations and communities, and this predation may have an indirect effect on species, e.g. goldeneye, that consume the same prey.     

Why the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Euler</Emphasis> scheme in particle tracking is not enough: the shallow-sea pycnocline test case

During the last decades, the Euler scheme was the common “workhorse” in particle tracking, although it is the lowest-order approximation of the underlying stochastic differential equation. To convince the modelling community of the need for better methods, we have constructed a new test case that will show the shortcomings of the Euler scheme. We use an idealised shallow-water diffusivity profile that mimics the presence of a sharp pycnocline and thus a quasi-impermeable barrier to vertical diffusion. In this context, we study the transport of passive particles with or without negative buoyancy. A semi-analytic solutions is used to assess the performance of various numerical particle-tracking schemes (first- and second-order accuracy), to treat the variations in the diffusivity profile properly. We show that the commonly used Euler scheme exhibits a poor performance and that widely used particle-tracking codes shall be updated to either the Milstein scheme or second-order schemes. It is further seen that the order of convergence is not the only relevant factor, the absolute value of the error also is.     

Influence of the boundary layer height on the global air–sea surface fluxes

Results from large-eddy simulations and field measurements have previously shown that the velocity field is influenced by the boundary layer height, z _i , during close to neutral, slightly unstable, atmospheric stratification. During such conditions the non-dimensional wind profile, φ _m , has been found to be a function of both z/L and z _i /L. At constant z/L, φ _m decreases with decreasing boundary layer height. Since φ _m is directly related to the parameterizations of the air–sea surface fluxes, these results will have an influence when calculating the surface fluxes in weather and climate models. The global impact of this was estimated using re-analysis data from 1979 to 2001 and bulk parameterizations. The results show that the sum of the global latent and sensible mean heat fluxes increase by 0.77 W m⁻² or about 1% and the mean surface stress increase by 1.4 mN m⁻² or 1.8% when including the effects of the boundary layer height in the parameterizations. However, some regions show a larger response. The greatest impact is found over the tropical oceans between 30°S and 30°N. In this region the boundary layer height influences the non-dimensional wind profile during extended periods of time. In the mid Indian Ocean this results in an increase of the mean annual heat fluxes by 2.0 W m⁻² and an increase of the mean annual surface stress by 2.6 mN m⁻².     

Spectra of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and Water Vapour in the Marine Atmospheric Surface Layer

Spectra of CO₂ and water vapour fluctuations from measurements made in the marine atmospheric surface layer have been analyzed. A normalization of spectra based on Monin–Obukhov similarity theory, originally developed for wind speed and temperature, has been successfully extended also to CO₂ and humidity spectra. The normalized CO₂ spectra were observed to have somewhat larger contributions from low frequencies compared to humidity spectra during unstable stratification. However, overall, the CO₂ and humidity spectra showed good agreement as did the cospectra of vertical velocity with water vapour and CO₂ respectively. During stable stratification the spectra and cospectra displayed a well-defined spectral gap separating the mesoscale and small-scale turbulent fluctuations. Two-dimensional turbulence was suggested as a possible source for the mesoscale fluctuations, which in combination with wave activity in the vertical wind is likely to explain the increase in the cospectral energy for the corresponding frequency range. Prior to the analysis the turbulence time series of the density measurements were converted to time series of mixing ratios relative to dry air. Some differences were observed when the spectra based on the original density measurements were compared to the spectra based on the mixing ratio time series. It is thus recommended to always convert the density time series to mixing ratio before performing spectral analysis.     

Storm surges in the Western Baltic Sea: the present and a possible future

Globally-coupled climate models are generally capable of reproducing the observed trends in the globally averaged atmospheric temperature or mean sea level. However, the global models do not perform as well on regional/local scales. Here, we present results from four 100-year ocean model experiments for the Western Baltic Sea. In order to simulate storm surges in this region, we have used the General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM) as a high-resolution local model (spatial resolution ≈ 1?km), nested into a regional atmospheric and regional oceanic model in a fully baroclinic downscaling approach. The downscaling is based on the global model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The projections are imbedded into two greenhouse-gas emission scenarios, A1B and B1, for the period 2000–2100, each with two realisations. Two control runs from 1960 to 2000 are used for validation. We use this modelling system to statistically reproduce the present distribution of surge extremes. The usage of the high-resolution local model leads to an improvement in surge heights of at least 10% compared to the driving model. To quantify uncertainties associated with climate projections, we investigate the impact of enhanced wind velocities and changes in mean sea levels. The analysis revealed a linear dependence of surge height and mean sea level, although the slope parameter is spatially varying. Furthermore, the modelling system is used to project possible changes within the next century. The results show that the sea level rise has greater potential to increase surge levels than does increased wind speed. The simulations further indicate that the changes in storm surge height in the scenarios can be consistently explained by the increase in mean sea level and variation in wind speed.