Hässeldala – a key site for Last Termination climate events in northern Europe

The Last Termination (19 000–11 000 a BP) with its rapid and distinct climate shifts provides a perfect laboratory to study the nature and regional impact of climate variability. The sedimentary succession from the ancient lake at Hässeldala Port in southern Sweden with its distinct Lateglacial/early Holocene stratigraphy (>14.1–9.5 cal. ka BP) is one of the few chronologically well‐constrained, multi‐proxy sites in Europe that capture a variety of local and regional climatic and environmental signals. Here we present Hässeldala's multi‐proxy records (lithology, geochemistry, pollen, diatoms, chironomids, biomarkers, hydrogen isotopes) in a refined age model and place the observed changes in lake status, catchment vegetation, summer temperatures and hydroclimate in a wider regional context. Reconstructed mean July temperatures increased between c. 14.1 and c. 13.1 cal. ka BP and subsequently declined. This latter cooling coincided with drier hydroclimatic conditions that were probably associated with a freshening of the Nordic Seas and started a few hundred years before the onset of Greenland Stadial 1 (c. 12.9 cal. ka BP). Our proxies suggest a further shift towards colder and drier conditions as late as c. 12.7 cal. ka BP, which was followed by the establishment of a stadial climate regime (c. 12.5–11.8 cal. ka BP). The onset of warmer and wetter conditions preceded the Holocene warming over Greenland by c. 200 years. Hässeldala's proxies thus highlight the complexity of environmental and hydrological responses across abrupt climate transitions in northern Europe.     

Snow density variations: consequences for ground‐penetrating radar

Reliable hydrological forecasts of snowmelt runoff are of major importance for many areas. Ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) measurements are used to assess snowpack water equivalent for planning of hydropower production in northern Sweden. The travel time of the radar pulse through the snow cover is recorded and converted to snow water equivalent (SWE) using a constant snowpack mean density from the drainage basin studied. In this paper we improve the method to estimate SWE by introducing a depth‐dependent snowpack density. We used 6 years measurements of peak snow depth and snowpack mean density at 11 locations in the Swedish mountains. The original method systematically overestimates the SWE at shallow depths (+25% for 0·5 m) and underestimates the SWE at large depths (?35% for 2·0 m). A large improvement was obtained by introducing a depth–density relation based on average conditions for several years, whereas refining this by using separate relations for individual years yielded a smaller improvement. The SWE estimates were substantially improved for thick snow covers, reducing the average error from 162 ± 23 mm to 53 ± 10 mm for depth range 1·2–2·0 m. Consequently, the introduction of a depth‐dependent snow density yields substantial improvements of the accuracy in SWE values calculated from GPR data. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Segregation and Urban Unrest in Sweden

In 2009, Sweden experienced a wave of urban unrest concentrated in areas with large foreign-born populations. This episode was seen by many as reflecting a trend towards increased ethnically based residential segregation, in line with scholarly literatures that correlate inequality and rising segregation with increases in unrest or rebellion. In this paper, we analyze the empirical connection between ethnic residential segregation and episodes of urban unrest in Sweden. Unrest is measured by the number of car burnings reported to police between 2002 and 2009. We find a positive and statistically significant link between residential segregation and car burnings at the scale of municipalities and metropolitan districts. Unrest/rebellion is also correlated with high proportion of young adults and social welfare assistance.     

On the dynamics of superfluid neutron star cores

We discuss the nature of the various modes of pulsation of superfluid neutron stars using comparatively simple Newtonian models and the Cowling approximation. The matter in these stars is described in terms of a two-fluid model, where one fluid is the neutron superfluid, which is believed to exist in the core and inner crust of mature neutron stars, and the other fluid represents a conglomerate of all other constituents (crust nuclei, protons, electrons, etc.). In our model, we incorporate the non-dissipative interaction known as the entrainment effect, whereby the momentum of one constituent (e.g. the neutrons) carries along part of the mass of the other constituent. We show that there is no independent set of pulsating g-modes in a non-rotating superfluid neutron star core, even though the linearized superfluid equations contain a well-defined (and real-valued) analogue to the so-called Brunt–Väisälä frequency. Instead, what we find are two sets of spheroidal perturbations whose nature is predominately acoustic. In addition, an analysis of the zero-frequency subspace (i.e. the space of time-independent perturbations) reveals two sets of degenerate spheroidal perturbations, which we interpret to be the missing g-modes, and two sets of toroidal perturbations. We anticipate that the degeneracy of all these zero-frequency modes will be broken by the Coriolis force in the case of rotating stars. To illustrate this we consider the toroidal pulsation modes of a slowly rotating superfluid star. This analysis shows that the superfluid equations support a new class of r-modes, in addition to those familiar from, for example, geophysical fluid dynamics. Finally, the role of the entrainment effect on the superfluid mode frequencies is shown explicitly via solutions to dispersion relations that follow from a 'local' analysis of the linearized superfluid equations.     

Non-Linear, Microscale Modelling of the Flow Over Askervein Hill

The flow solver “3DWind” is used to explore new aspects of the Askervein hill flow case. Previous work has investigated sensitivities to the grid, the inflow boundary profile, the roughness and the turbulence model. Several different linear and non-linear numerical models have also been validated by means of the Askervein hill case. This analysis focuses on the flow sensitivity to the grid spacing, the incident wind direction and the vertical resolution of topographic data. The horizontal resolution is found to be fine enough to cause only minor differences compared to a grid where every second node is removed. The vertical resolution dependence is mainly attributed to the wall functions. Simulations are performed for wind directions 200°, 205°, 210° and 215° at the reference station. The smallest directional biases compared to experimental values along a line through the hilltop are found for the directions 200° and 205°. There are larger wind direction changes along this line through the hilltop in the 200° case than in the 215° case. Still the simulation results give less veering than found in the experimental results, and this is maybe caused by a slightly stable atmosphere. The sensitivity to the vertical resolution of the topographical data is found to be particularly high close to the ground at the top of the hill; this is where the speed-up is most important. Differences decrease with the height from the ground. At higher levels the speed-ups are smaller and caused by terrain formations with larger scales.     

Potential climate change impacts on the probability of wind damage in a south Swedish forest

We estimated how the possible changes in wind climate and state of the forest due to climate change may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within a forest management unit located in Southern Sweden. The topography of the management unit was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). We incorporated a model relating the site index (SI) to the site productivity into the forest projection model FTM. Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in NPP equal to a relative change in the site productivity, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of SI in response to climate change. We estimated changes in NPP by combining the boreal-adapted BIOMASS model with four regional climate change scenarios calculated using the RCAO model for the period 2071–2100 and two control period scenarios for the period 1961–1990. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands in simulated future states of the forest. The climate change scenarios used represent non-extreme projections on a 100-year time scale in terms of global mean warming. A 15–40% increase in NPP was estimated to result from climate change until the period 2071–2100. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated when the management rules of today were applied. A greater proportion of the calculated change in probability of wind damage was due to changes in wind climate than to changes in the sensitivity of the forest to wind. While regional climate scenarios based on the HadAM3H general circulation model (GCM) indicated no change (SRES A2 emission scenario) or a slightly reduced (SRES B2 emission scenario) probability of wind damage, scenarios based on the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCM indicated increased probability of wind damage. The assessment should, however, be reviewed as the simulation of forest growth under climate change as well as climate change scenarios are refined.     

Effects of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Enrichment on Marine Phytoplankton

Rising atmospheric CO₂ and deliberate CO₂ sequestration in the ocean change seawater carbonate chemistry in a similar way, lowering seawater pH, carbonate ion concentration and carbonate saturation state and increasing dissolved CO₂ concentration. These changes affect marine plankton in various ways. On the organismal level, a moderate increase in CO₂ facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of some phytoplankton groups. It also enhances the release of dissolved carbohydrates, most notably during the decline of nutrient-limited phytoplankton blooms. A decrease in the carbonate saturation state represses biogenic calcification of the predominant marine calcifying organisms, foraminifera and coccolithophorids. On the ecosystem level these responses influence phytoplankton species composition and succession, favouring algal species which predominantly rely on CO₂ utilization. Increased phytoplankton exudation promotes particle aggregation and marine snow formation, enhancing the vertical flux of biogenic material. A decrease in calcification may affect the competitive advantage of calcifying organisms, with possible impacts on their distribution and abundance. On the biogeochemical level, biological responses to CO₂ enrichment and the related changes in carbonate chemistry can strongly alter the cycling of carbon and other bio-active elements in the ocean. Both decreasing calcification and enhanced carbon overproduction due to release of extracellular carbohydrates have the potential to increase the CO₂ storage capacity of the ocean. Although the significance of such biological responses to CO₂ enrichment becomes increasingly evident, our ability to make reliable predictions of their future developments and to quantify their potential ecological and biogeochemical impacts is still in its infancy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.