Mixed layer variability in Northern Arabian Sea as detected by an Argo float

Seasonal evolution of surface mixed layer in the Northern Arabian Sea (NAS) between 17° N–20.5° N and 59° E-69° E was observed by using Argo float daily data for about 9 months, from April 2002 through December 2002. Results showed that during April - May mixed layer shoaled due to light winds, clear sky and intense solar insolation. Sea surface temperature (SST) rose by 2.3 °C and ocean gained an average of 99.8 Wm⁻². Mixed layer reached maximum depth of about 71 m during June - September owing to strong winds and cloudy skies. Ocean gained abnormally low ∼18 Wm⁻² and SST dropped by 3.4 °C. During the inter monsoon period, October, mixed layer shoaled and maintained a depth of 20 to 30 m. November - December was accompanied by moderate winds, dropping of SST by 1.5 °C and ocean lost an average of 52.5 Wm⁻². Mixed layer deepened gradually reaching a maximum of 62 m in December. Analysis of surface fluxes and winds suggested that winds and fluxes are the dominating factors causing deepening of mixed layer during summer and winter monsoon periods respectively. Relatively high correlation between MLD, net heat flux and wind speed revealed that short term variability of MLD coincided well with short term variability of surface forcing.     

Geophysical and geochemical observations on actively seeping hydrocarbon gases on the south-eastern Yellow Sea continental shelf

In the southeastern Yellow Sea, active seepage of hydrocarbon gases has been observed by high-resolution (3.5 kHz) seismic profiling both in 1987 and 2001, occurring through a large number of plumes from the topmost pre-Holocene sedimentary layer. It is strong enough to compensate for current speed, extending vertically up to the sea surface. The gas seepage often appears to be explosive to form craters and diapirs, although pockmarks are rare due to the redistribution of mobile palimpsest sands. In core-top seawater and sediments, the gases are characterized by high amounts of C₂, homogenous ¹³C₁ values and a large difference (19.7 on average) between ¹³C₁ (–55.2 to –53.6 PDB) and ¹³C₂ (–36.8 to –32.5 PDB) values. The gases are considered to be generated with a smaller amount of C₁ at the early thermal cracking stage of labile source materials, after which the C₂ gas is enriched in ¹³C by diffusion or biological alternation at the generation or accumulation site. The homogenous ¹³C₁ values may be one of the geochemical characteristics of gases acquired at depth which are less altered in the case of rapid diffusive gas migration to the seafloor.     

Spectra of the Black-Sea tsunamis

We perform the analysis of the time spectra of four tsunamis generated in the Black Sea by the earthquakes of 26.07.1927, 11.09.1927, 26.12.1939, and 12.07.1966. For the analysis of the spectra, we used digitized marigrams obtained for 12 points of the Black-Sea coast. The obtained spectra are, as a rule, multimode and have 1–4 spectral maxima. One maximum corresponds to the periods typical of tsunami waves and the other maxima correspond to the oscillations of the sea level with lower frequencies. It seems likely that the events of tsunami are accompanied by low-frequency oscillations of the level caused by the atmospheric forcing, seiches, or other factors. In numerous cases, the oscillations from the predominant energy range lie outside the characteristic range of periods of the tsunami waves. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 5, pp. 21–30, September–October, 2007.     

Adaptive balance of global development processes

We study the processes of global self-regulation of Earth’s biota (GAIA-theory) by applying the method of adaptive balance of causes proposed by the authors. By using, as an example, the Daisy World model constructed by this method, we reveal the phenomenon of preservation of the mean temperature of Earth’s surface due to the presence of the vegetation cover. We develop an integral model of global natural, social, and economic processes in which the World Ocean is one of the factors regulating the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The decrease in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by the GAIA-effects increases the number of hurricanes and floods on the Earth. As a result, the levels of ecological and social hazards for the mankind become much higher. To eliminate these threats, it is necessary to intensify the processes of self-organization of the society realized via the improvement of education, development of science, and global regulation of the competition for natural resources. We present the results of numerical experiments performed by using the model demonstrating possible scenarios of global development with regard for the processes of self-organization of the society. __________ Translated From Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 3, Pp. 62–80, May–June, 2007.     

On the possibility of forecasting the long-term air temperature variability that determines the hydrophysical structure and ecology of the Black Sea waters

Periods and amplitudes of long-term temperature fluctuations were obtained using the methods of spectral analysis and filtration of secular time series of the air temperature at 13 hydrometeorological stations in the Black Sea region. The prognostic calculations of the long-term air temperature variability are based on the results of processing of time series. The calculations of the air temperature agree with the data of observations. The possibility of the long-term air temperature variability prediction is shown.     

Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

Statistical analysis of a global photochemical model of the atmosphere

This is a study of the sensitivity of model results (atmospheric content of main gas constituents and radiative characteristics of the atmosphere) to errors in emissions of a number of atmospheric gaseous pollutants. Groups of the model variables most dependent on these errors are selected. Two variants of emissions are considered: one without their evolution and the other with their variation according to the IPCC scenario. The estimates are made on the basis of standard statistical methods for the results obtained with the detailed onedimensional radiative—photochemical model of the Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO). Some approaches to such estimations with models of higher complexity and to the solution of the inverse problem (i.e., the estimation of the necessary accuracy of external model parameters for obtaining the given accuracy of model results) are outlined.     

Atmospheric forcing of fine-sand transport on a low-energy inner shelf: south-central Louisiana,USA

Hydrodynamic and sediment transport measurements from instrumentation deployed during a 54-day winter period at two sites on the Louisiana inner shelf are presented. Strong extratropical storms, with wind speeds of 7.8 to 15.1 m s^-1, were the dominant forcing mechanism during the study. These typically caused mean oscillatory flows and shear velocities about 33% higher than fair weather (averaging 12.3 and 3.2 cm s^-1 at the landward site, and 11.4 and 2.7 cm s^-1 at the seaward site, respectively). These responses were coupled with mean near-bottom currents more than twice as strong as during fair weather (10.3 and 7.5 cm s^-1 at the landward and seaward sites, respectively). These flowed in approximately the same direction as the veering wind, causing a net offshore transport of fine sand. Weak storms were responsible for little sediment transport whereas during fair weather, onshore sand transport of approximately 25-75% of the storm values appears to have occurred. This contradicts previous predictions of negligible fair-weather sediment movement on this inner shelf.     

Determination of characteristics of atmospheric motions from satellite multiwave remote sensing data

A method of determination of atmospheric dynamic characteristics from the data of remote sensing from a geostationary satellite is described. The method is based on the use of inhomogeneities in the concentration field of a conservative additive as tracers and on the application of correlation-extreme algorithms. Unlike the common methods used abroad, this method is able to determine not only the vector field of wind velocity but also the coefficient of turbulent diffusion and vorticity. Results of computations of the fields of the horizontal component of wind velocity and the effective coefficient of horizontal mesoscale turbulent diffusion from the Meteosat-8 SEVIRI water-vapor channel data are presented. It is shown that the average values of the effective coefficient of mesoscale horizontal turbulent diffusion in the areas with a predominantly turbulized air-mass motion are 1.5 times greater than in the areas where a laminar motion dominates. Specific features of the calculated values of the upper-troposphere dynamic characteristics in different stages of the North Atlantic TC Helene (September 2006) are analyzed.