Decision-support Systems: Do they have a Future in Estuarine Management?

Estuaries are highly complex ecosystems. Consequently they present daunting challenges to planners and regulators responsible for devising ‘ sustainable development ’ strategies or for taking rapid decisions with respect to ‘ crisis management ’. Over the lifetime of the Estuarine and Coastal Sciences Association, there have been significant developments in both the range and sophistication of the tools available to assist with these tasks. Indeed, managers are now faced with a confusing plethora of possibilities that may, or may not, help in achieving the optimum solution to a given problem.Typical problems confronting managers and the systems available to resolve the issues are considered. By way of illustration, we present some examples based on our experience over the last 25 years in the Mersey Estuary (which has seen dramatic improvements in water quality and a number of major proposed developments), from the Ribble Estuary and from along the north-west coast of the U.K.     

Developing country perspectives on ‘mitigation actions’, ‘NAMAs’, and ‘LCDS’

The MAPS programme, which seeks to deepen mitigation ambition in developing countries, is engaged in exploring the concepts of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and Low Carbon Development Strategies (LCDS) from a developing country perspective. Here, climate mitigation practitioners in six developing countries were surveyed for their understanding of these concepts (anonymous, personal communications with climate mitigation practitioners in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, and South Africa). It is found that there is much scope for clarity and conceptual elaboration in this policy space. NAMAs are largely interpreted as mitigation activities packaged for submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) registry, but are not held to constitute the full set of mitigation activity in a developing country. New terminology may be needed to describe this broader set. A tighter interpretation of LCDS to distinguish between a strategic or coordinating policy action may be useful. Other themes arising include the way ‘national appropriateness’ is reflected in the concepts, and the role of international policy in deepening mitigation action in developing countries.     

The Effects of Fault-Zone Cementation on Groundwater Flow at the Field Scale

Fault zones are an important control on fluid flow, affecting groundwater supply, contaminant migration, and carbon storage. However, most models of fault seal do not consider fault zone cementation, despite the recognition that it is common and can dramatically reduce permeability. In order to study the field-scale hydrogeologic effects of fault zone cementation, we conducted a series of aquifer pumping tests in wells installed within tens of meters of the variably cemented Loma Blanca Fault, a normal fault in the Rio Grande Rift. In the southern half of the study area, the fault zone is cemented by calcite; the cemented zone is 2-8 m wide. In the center of the study area, the cemented fault zone is truncated at a buttress unconformity that laterally separates hydrostratigraphic units with a ∼40X difference in permeability. The fault zone north of the unconformity is not cemented. Constant rate pumping tests indicate that where the fault is cemented, it is a barrier to groundwater flow. This is an important demonstration that a fault with no clay in its core and similar sediment on both sides can be a barrier to groundwater flow by virtue of its cementation; most conceptual models for the hydrogeology of faults would predict that it would not be a barrier to groundwater flow. Additionally, the lateral permeability heterogeneity across the unconformity imposes another important control on the local flow field. This permeability discontinuity acts as either a no-flow boundary or a constant head boundary, depending on the location of pumping.     

Ejecta from impacts at 0.2-2.3 m/s in low gravity

Collisions between planetary ring particles and in some protoplanetary disk environments occur at speeds below 10 m/s. The particles involved in these low-velocity collisions have negligible gravity and may be made of or coated with smaller dust grains and aggregates. We undertook microgravity impact experiments to better understand the dissipation of energy and production of ejecta in these collisions. Here we report the results of impact experiments of solid projectiles into beds of granular material at impact velocities from 0.2 to 2.3 m/s performed under near-weightless conditions on the NASA KC-135 Weightless Wonder V. Impactors of various densities and radii of 1 and 2 cm were launched into targets of quartz sand, JSC-1 lunar regolith simulant, and JSC-Mars-1 martian regolith simulant. Most impacts were at normal or near-normal incidence angles, though some impacts were at oblique angles. Oblique impacts led to much higher ejection velocities and ejecta masses than normal impacts. For normal incidence impacts, characteristic ejecta velocities increase with impactor kinetic energy, KE, as approximately KE^0.5. Ejecta masses could not be measured accurately due to the nature of the experiment, but qualitatively also increased with impactor kinetic energy. Some experiments were near the threshold velocity of 0.2 m/s identified in previous microgravity impact experiments as the minimum velocity needed to produce ejecta [Colwell, J.E., 2003. Icarus 164, 188-196], and the experimental scatter is large at these low speeds in the airplane experiment. A more precise exploration of the transition from low-ejecta-mass impacts to high-ejecta-mass impacts requires a longer and smoother period of reduced gravity. Coefficient of restitution measurements are not possible due to the varying acceleration of the airplane throughout the experiment.     

Particle–water interactions of 2,2′,5,5′-tetrachlorobiphenyl under simulated estuarine conditions

A batch sorption technique for the determination of particle–water interactions of hydrophobic organic micropollutants under simulated estuarine conditions is described. Results are presented for the behaviour of 2,2′,5,5′-tetrachlorobiphenyl (2,2′,5,5′-TCB) in river and sea waters, both in the presence and absence of estuarine suspended particles. Adsorption onto particles in sea water was enhanced compared with adsorption in river water owing to salting out of the compound, and possibly of the particulate organic matter, in the presence of high concentrations of dissolved ions. The particle–water distribution coefficient, K_D, decreased from about 120×10³ to 10×10³ ml g⁻¹, and from about 150×10³ to 20×10³ ml g⁻¹, in river water and sea water, respectively, over a particle concentration range of 10–1000 mg l⁻¹. Incomplete recovery of compound from the reactor walls is partly responsible for a particle concentration effect, while artefacts relating to inadequate sediment and water phase separation were ruled out following further experiments. The particle concentration effect, which is replicated in many field studies of hydrophobic organic micropollutants, including 2,2′,5,5′-TCB, is incorporated into a simple partitioning model and is discussed in the context of the likely estuarine behaviour of such compounds.     

Effect of thickness of planar nozzles on erosion depth of levee soils subjected to plunging water

In this study, the effect of the thickness of a planar jet on the erosion depth when the jet impinges on a surface composed of cohesive soil was analytically and numerically evaluated. The results showed that the erosion depth was practically independent of the nozzle thickness for erosion depths shallower than the potential core length (i.e. the region of the jet in which the central flow velocity is the same as the nozzle velocity). The relation between nozzle thickness and erosion depth was non-linear with continuously variable slope for erosion depths deeper than the potential core length. Finally, the relation was approximately linear when the erosion depth converged to the equilibrium erosion depth. The findings of this study indicate that direct and fast prediction of the erosion depth in the field is possible using the data from a small scale soil erosion test with similar flow velocities.     

Surface melt-driven seasonal behaviour (englacial and subglacial) from a soft-bedded temperate glacier recorded by in situ wireless probes

We investigate the spatial and temporal englacial and subglacial processes associated with a temperate glacier resting on a deformable bed using the unique Glacsweb wireless in situ probes (embedded in the ice and the till) combined with other techniques [including ground penetrating radar (GPR) and borehole analysis]. During the melt season (spring, summer and autumn), high surface melt leads to high water pressures in the englacial and subglacial environment. Winter is characterized by no surface melting on most days (‘base’) apart from a series of positive degree days. Once winter begins, a diurnal water pressure cycle is established in the ice and at the ice/sediment interface, with direct meltwater inputs from the positive degree days and a secondary slower englacial pathway with a five day lag. This direct surface melt also drives water pressure changes in the till. Till deformation occurred throughout the year, with the winter rate approximately 60% that of the melt season. We were able to show the bed comprised patches of till with different strengths, and were able to estimate their size, relative percentage and temporal stability. We show that the melt season is characterized by a high pressure distributed system, and winter by a low pressure channelized system. We contrast this with studies from Greenland (overlying rigid bedrock), where the opposite was found. We argue our results are typical of soft bedded glaciers with low englacial water content, and suggest this type of glacier can rapidly respond to surface-driven melt. Based on theoretical and field results we suggest that the subglacial hydrology comprises a melt season distributed system dominated by wide anastomosing broad flat channels and thin water sheets, which may become more channelized in winter, and more responsive to changes in meltwater inputs. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Diel-Cycling Hypoxia in Estuarine Tributaries

The distribution and intensity of hypoxia (low dissolved oxygen) in estuaries is increasing worldwide due to cultural eutrophication. This study quantifies the strength of associations between the duration of diel-cycling severe hypoxia (≤2 mg O₂ l⁻¹) in bottom water (∼15 cm above bottom) of a shallow (<2 m) coastal lagoon estuary (Delaware, USA) and abiotic environmental variables (water temperature, insolation, tide, streamflow, and wind) and predicts the duration of severe hypoxia given different combinations of these variables. The intensity and spatial extent and dynamics of diel-cycling severe hypoxia events were defined. Vertical variability in dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration during the daytime was also determined. During the summers of 2001–2005, bottom DO data were collected for periods of weeks to months at multiple sites using automated sondes. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and regression tree analysis (RTA) were used to determine the relative importance of the environmental variables in predicting the number of hours of severe hypoxia per day. Key findings of the study were that severe hypoxia events of minutes to hours in duration occurred frequently in all four tributaries sampled, primarily between 0200 and 1000 hours. Severe hypoxia duration and diel-cycling amplitudes of DO concentration increased in the up-tributary direction. Hierarchically, the duration of severe hypoxia was influenced mostly by the mean daily water temperature, then by preceding days’ total insolation, percentage of morning hours (02:00 to 10:00 a.m.) ebb tide, and daily streamflow. Collectively, the variables examined by the MLR and the RTA approaches accounted for 62% and 65% of the variability in the duration of severe hypoxia, respectively. RTA demonstrated that daily mean water temperature above 26.3°C and previous day’s total insolation below 13.6 kW m⁻² were associated with the longest lasting severe hypoxic events (9.56 h). The environmental variables and combinations of conditions that modulate or augment diel-cycling hypoxia presented in this paper enhance understanding of this widespread and growing phenomenon and provide additional insight regarding the extent to which it can impact food webs in very shallow estuarine waters that often serve as nursery habitat.     

Conodont biostratigraphy across the Permian–Triassic boundary at the Dawen section, Great Bank of Guizhou, Guizhou Province, South China: Implications for the Late Permian extinction and correlation with Meishan

Several continuous Permian–Triassic boundary (PTB) sections are well exposed in the interior of the Great Bank of Guizhou (GBG) on the east limb of the Bianyang syncline, Luodian County, Guizhou Province, South China. Fourteen conodont taxa are identified, including Clarkina kazi, Clarkina lehrmanni n. sp., Clarkina taylorae, Clarkina zhejiangensis, Hindeodus eurypyge, Hindeodus inflatus, Hindeodus sxlatidentatus, Hindeodus parvus erectus, Hindeodus parvus parvus, Hindeodus postparvus, Hindeodus praeparvus, Hindeodus typicalis, Isarcicella staeschei, and Merrillina ultima based on a detailed study of the Permian-Triassic interval at the Dawen section. The first occurrence (FO) of H. parvus parvus in the lower Daye Formation, at about 7.45 m above the contact surface between the Upper Permian skeletal packstone and a calcimicrobial framestone unit, is correlated with the Permian–Triassic boundary; the occurrence of H. eurypyge, H. praeparvus and M. ultima immediately below and H. postparvus above the interval supports this interpretation. A morphometric analysis of 31 Hindeodus specimens helped distinguish H. parvus erectus from H. parvus parvus and H. postparvus. Correlation with the Meishan section (PTB GSSP) using both conodont biostratigraphy and carbon isotopes, indicates that the major extinction at the two localities is simultaneous and coincides with the top of the skeletal packstone at Dawen. The contact between the skeletal packstone and the calcimicrobialite is very irregular and has previously been interpreted as a dissolution surface and correlated with a surface in the lower part of bed 27 at Meishan. Our results confirm this interpretation and reveal that the dissolution event postdated the extinction.