Community collaboration and climate change research in the Canadian Arctic

Research on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, particularly projects aiming to contribute to practical adaptation initiatives, requires active involvement and collaboration with community members and local, regional and national organizations that use this research for policy-making. Arctic communities are already experiencing and adapting to environmental and socio-cultural changes, and researchers have a practical and ethical responsibility to engage with communities that are the focus of the research. This paper draws on the experiences of researchers working with communities across the Canadian Arctic, together with the expertise of Inuit organizations, Northern research institutes and community partners, to outline key considerations for effectively engaging Arctic communities in collaborative research. These considerations include: initiating early and ongoing communication with communities, and regional and national contacts; involving communities in research design and development; facilitating opportunities for local employment; and disseminating research findings. Examples of each consideration are drawn from climate change research conducted with communities in the Canadian Arctic.     

Stochastic downscaling method: application to wind refinement

In this article, we propose a new stochastic downscaling method: provided a numerical prediction of wind at large scale, we aim to improve the approximation at small scales thanks to a local stochastic model. We first recall the framework of a Lagrangian stochastic model borrowed from Pope. Then, we adapt it to our meteorological framework, both from the theoretical and numerical viewpoints. Finally, we present some promising numerical results corresponding to the simulation of wind over the Mediterranean Sea.     

Extragalactic Cepheid database

We present in this paper an exhaustive compilation of all published data of extragalactic Cepheids. We have checked every light curve in order to characterize the different types of Cepheid and detect potential overtone pulsators, or to estimate the quality of the data. This compilation of about 3000 photometric measurements will constitute a very useful tool for astronomers involved for instance in the extragalactic distance scale.     

Trophic efficiency of the planktonic food web in a coastal ecosystem dominated by Phaeocystis colonies

The trophic efficiency of the planktonic food web in the Phaeocystis-dominated ecosystem of the Belgian coastal waters was inferred from the analysis of the carbon flow network of the planktonic system subdivided into its different trophodynamic groups. A carbon budget was constructed on the basis of process-level field experiments conducted during the spring bloom period of 1998. Biomass and major metabolic activities of auto- and heterotrophic planktonic communities (primary production, bacterial production, nanoproto-, micro- and mesozooplankton feeding activities) were determined in nine field assemblages collected during spring at reference station 330. In 1998, the phytoplankton spring flowering was characterised by a moderate diatom bloom followed by a massive Phaeocystis colony bloom. Phaeocystis colonies, contributing 70% to the net primary production, escaped the linear food chain while the early spring diatom production supplied 74% of the mesozooplankton carbon uptake. The rest of mesozooplankton food requirement was, at the time of the Phaeocystis colony bloom, partially fulfilled by microzooplankton. Only one-third of the microzooplankton production, however, was controlled by mesozooplankton grazing pressure. Ungrazed Phaeocystis colonies were stimulating the establishment of a very active microbial network. On the one hand, the release of free-living cells from ungrazed colonies has been shown to stimulate the growth of microzooplankton, which was controlling 97% of the nanophytoplankton production. On the other hand, the disruption of ungrazed Phaeocystis colonies supplied the water column with large amounts of dissolved organic matter available for planktonic bacteria. The budget calculation suggests that ungrazed colonies contributed up to 60% to the bacterial carbon demand, while alternative sources (exudation, zooplankton egestion and lysis of other organisms) provided some 30% of bacterial carbon requirements. This suggests that the spring carbon demand of planktonic bacteria was satisfied largely by autogenic production. The trophic efficiency was defined as the ratio between mesozooplankton grazing on a given source and food production. In spite of its major contribution to mesozooplankton feeding, the trophic efficiency of the linear food chain, restricted to the grazing on diatoms, represented only 5.6% of the available net primary production. The trophic efficiency of the microbial food chain, the ratio between mesozooplankton grazing on microzooplankton and the resource inflow (the bacterial carbon demand plus the nanophytoplankton production) amounted to only 1.6%. These low trophic efficiencies together with the potential contribution of ungrazed Phaeocystis-derived production to the bacterial carbon demand suggest that during spring 1998 most of the Phaeocystis-derived production in the Belgian coastal area was remineralised in the water column.     

Mollusk Record of Monsoon Variability during the L2–S2 Cycle in the Luochuan Loess Sequence, China

Molluscan changes that occurred in China over the S2–L2 upper middle Pleistocene series may be caused by monsoon variation. Study of terrestrial mollusks from the loess sequence in Luochuan, gathered in ecological groups according to the moisture and temperature requirements of the identified species, indicates alternating strengthened summer and winter paleomonsoons between 130,000 and 244,000 yr. The four occurrences of species, currently distributed in S.E. China in the sequence, indicate that the climate conditions were warmer and wetter than today between about 242,000 and 233,000 yr, at about 210,000, 164,000, and 140,000 yr. The main occurrence of xerophilous taxa at about 180,000, 154,000, and 138,000 yr is interpreted as indicating a drier environment than today. Such suggestions are in agreement with other proxy data such as grain size distribution. Higher numbers of individuals in the different ecological groups from the S2–L2 sequence indicate more favorable general environmental conditions than in the youngest S1–L1. This may agree with an increase in the regional aridity, since 500,000 yr, deduced from the study of the eolian flux in the northwestern Pacific downwind from China.     

Observing Convective Aggregation

Convective self-aggregation, the spontaneous organization of initially scattered convection into isolated convective clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing, was first recognized and studied in idealized numerical simulations. While there is a rich history of observational work on convective clustering and organization, there have been only a few studies that have analyzed observations to look specifically for processes related to self-aggregation in models. Here we review observational work in both of these categories and motivate the need for more of this work. We acknowledge that self-aggregation may appear to be far-removed from observed convective organization in terms of time scales, initial conditions, initiation processes, and mean state extremes, but we argue that these differences vary greatly across the diverse range of model simulations in the literature and that these comparisons are already offering important insights into real tropical phenomena. Some preliminary new findings are presented, including results showing that a self-aggregation simulation with square geometry has too broad distribution of humidity and is too dry in the driest regions when compared with radiosonde records from Nauru, while an elongated channel simulation has realistic representations of atmospheric humidity and its variability. We discuss recent work increasing our understanding of how organized convection and climate change may interact, and how model discrepancies related to this question are prompting interest in observational comparisons. We also propose possible future directions for observational work related to convective aggregation, including novel satellite approaches and a ground-based observational network.     

Modelling snow water equivalent and spring runoff in a boreal watershed,James Bay,Canada

The hydrology of boreal regions is strongly influenced by seasonal snow accumulation and melt. In this study, we compare simulations of snow water equivalent (SWE) and streamflow by using the hydrological model HYDROTEL with two contrasting approaches for snow modelling: a mixed degree‐day/energy balance model (small number of inputs, but several calibration parameters needed) and the thermodynamic model CROCUS (large number of inputs, but no calibration parameter needed). The study site, in Northern Quebec, Canada was equipped with a ground‐based gamma ray sensor measuring the SWE continuously for 5 years in a small forest clearing. The first simulation of CROCUS showed a tendency to underestimate SWE, attributable to bias in the meteorological inputs. We found that it was appropriate to use a threshold of 2 °C to separate rain and snow. We also applied a correction to account for snowfall undercatch by the precipitation gauge. After these modifications to the input dataset, we noticed that CROCUS clearly overestimated the SWE, likely as a result of not including loss in SWE because of blowing snow sublimation and relocation. To correct this, we included into CROCUS a simple parameterisation effective after a certain wind speed threshold, after which the thermodynamic model performed much better than the traditional mixed degree‐day/energy balance model. HYDROTEL was then used to simulate streamflow with both snow models. With CROCUS, the main peak flow could be captured, but the second peak because of delayed snowmelt from forested areas could not be reproduced due to a lack of sub‐canopy radiation data to feed CROCUS. Despite the relative homogeneity of the boreal landscape, data inputs from each land cover type are needed to generate satisfying simulation of the spring runoff. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying uncertainty in remotely sensed land cover maps

Remotely sensed land cover maps are increasingly used as inputs into environmental simulation models whose outputs inform decisions and policy-making. Risks associated with these decisions are dependent on model output uncertainty, which is in turn affected by the uncertainty of land cover inputs. This article presents a method of quantifying the uncertainty that results from potential mis-classification in remotely sensed land cover maps. In addition to quantifying uncertainty in the classification of individual pixels in the map, we also address the important case where land cover maps have been upscaled to a coarser grid to suit the users’ needs and are reported as proportions of land cover type. The approach is Bayesian and incorporates several layers of modelling but is straightforward to implement. First, we incorporate data in the confusion matrix derived from an independent field survey, and discuss the appropriate way to model such data. Second, we account for spatial correlation in the true land cover map, using the remotely sensed map as a prior. Third, spatial correlation in the mis-classification characteristics is induced by modelling their variance. The result is that we are able to simulate posterior means and variances for individual sites and the entire map using a simple Monte Carlo algorithm. The method is applied to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales, a map used as an input into a current dynamic carbon flux model.