Predicting river water temperatures using stochastic models: case study of the Moisie River (Québec,Canada)

Successful applications of stochastic models for simulating and predicting daily stream temperature have been reported in the literature. These stochastic models have been generally tested on small rivers and have used only air temperature as an exogenous variable. This study investigates the stochastic modelling of daily mean stream water temperatures on the Moisie River, a relatively large unregulated river located in Québec, Canada. The objective of the study is to compare different stochastic approaches previously used on small streams to relate mean daily water temperatures to air temperatures and streamflow indices. Various stochastic approaches are used to model the water temperature residuals, representing short‐term variations, which were obtained by subtracting the seasonal components from water temperature time‐series. The first three models, a multiple regression, a second‐order autoregressive model, and a Box and Jenkins model, used only lagged air temperature residuals as exogenous variables. The root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) for these models varied between 0·53 and 1·70 °C and the second‐order autoregressive model provided the best results. A statistical methodology using best subsets regression is proposed to model the combined effect of discharge and air temperature on stream temperatures. Various streamflow indices were considered as additional independent variables, and models with different number of variables were tested. The results indicated that the best model included relative change in flow as the most important streamflow index. The RMSE for this model was of the order of 0·51 °C, which shows a small improvement over the first three models that did not include streamflow indices. The ridge regression was applied to this model to alleviate the potential statistical inadequacies associated with multicollinearity. The amplitude and sign of the ridge regression coefficients seem to be more in agreement with prior expectations (e.g. positive correlation between water temperature residuals of different lags) and make more physical sense. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatio-temporal changes of underground coal fires during 2008–2016 in Khanh Hoa coal field (North-east of Viet Nam) using Landsat time-series data

Underground coal fires are one of the most common and serious geohazards in most coal producing countries in the world. Monitoring their spatio-temporal changes plays an important role in controlling and preventing the effects of coal fires, and their environmental impact. In this study, the spatio-temporal changes of underground coal fires in Khanh Hoa coal field(North-East of Viet Nam) were analyzed using Landsat time-series data during the 2008-2016 period. Based on land surface temperatures retrieved from Landsat thermal data, underground coal fires related to thermal anomalies were identified using the MEDIAN+1.5×IQR(IQR: Interquartile range) threshold technique. The locations of underground coal fires were validated using a coal fire map produced by the field survey data and cross-validated using the daytime ASTER thermal infrared imagery. Based on the fires extracted from seven Landsat thermal imageries, the spatiotemporal changes of underground coal fire areas were analyzed. The results showed that the thermalanomalous zones have been correlated with known coal fires. Cross-validation of coal fires using ASTER TIR data showed a high consistency of 79.3%. The largest coal fire area of 184.6 hectares was detected in 2010, followed by 2014(181.1 hectares) and 2016(178.5 hectares). The smaller coal fire areas were extracted with areas of 133.6 and 152.5 hectares in 2011 and 2009 respectively. Underground coal fires were mainly detected in the northern and southern part, and tend to spread to north-west of the coal field.     

Determination of the complex refractive indices of Titan haze analogs using photothermal deflection spectroscopy

The spectrometers of the Cassini mission to the Saturn system have detected haze layers reaching up to 800 km in Titan’s atmosphere. Knowledge of the complex refractive index (k) of the haze is important for modeling the surface and atmosphere of Titan and retrieving some information about the functional groups present in the aerosols. Plasma discharges or ultraviolet radiation are commonly used to drive the formation of solid organics assumed to be good analogs of the Titan aerosols. [Tran, B.N., Ferris, J.P., Chera, J.J., 2003a. The photochemical formation of a Titan haze analog. Structural analysis by X-ray photoelectron and infrared spectroscopy. Icarus 162, 114-124; Tran, B.N., Force, M., Briggs, R., Ferris J.P., Persans, P., Chera, J.J., 2008. Photochemical processes on Titan: Irradiation of mixtures of gases that simulate Titan’s atmosphere. Icarus 177, 106-115] reported the index of refraction of analogs synthesized by far ultraviolet irradiation of various gas mixtures. k was determined in the 200-800 nm wavelength range from transmission and reflection spectroscopy. However, this technique is limited by (i) uncertainties in the absorption values because of the small amounts of organics available, (ii) light scattering by the surface roughness and particulates in the sample. These limitations prompted us to perform new measurements using photothermal deflection spectroscopy (PDS), a technique based on the conversion of absorbed light into heat in the material of interest. By combining traditional spectroscopy (λ < 500 nm) and PDS (λ > 500 nm), we determined values of k over the 375-1550 nm range. k values as low as 10⁻⁴ above 1000 nm were determined. This is one order of magnitude lower than the measurements generally used as a reference for Titan’s aerosols analogs [Khare, B.N., Sagan, C., Arakawa, E.T., Suits, F., Callicott, T.A., Williams, M.W., 1984. Optical-constants of organic Tholins produced in a simulated Titanian atmosphere—from soft-X-ray to microwave-frequencies. Icarus 60(1), 127-137]. We recommend that these results were used in models to describe the optical properties of the aerosols produced in Titan’s stratosphere.     

Modern climate of the Cát Tiên National Park (Southern Vietnam): Climatological data for ecological studies

A method of using the standard network weather station data for local ecosystem research is considered on the example of the modern climate of the Cát Tiên National Park (Southern Vietnam) and local climate change in 1980–2010. Special attention is focused on the environmental parameters, which play a role of the limiting factors. It is shown that the climate of Southern Vietnam responds with statistical significance to global climate change. Suggestions about the possible reactions of tropical monsoon forest ecosystem to climate change are given.     

Sediment distribution and depositional processes along the fluvial to marine transition zone of the Mekong River delta,Vietnam

The area of coastal rivers with a combination of fluvial, tidal and wave processes is defined as the fluvial to marine transition zone and can extend up to several hundreds of kilometres upstream of the river mouth. The aim of this study is to improve the understanding of sediment distribution and depositional processes along the fluvial to marine transition zone using a comprehensive dataset of channel bed sediment samples collected from the Mekong River delta. Six sediment types were identified and were interpreted to reflect the combined action of fluvial and marine processes. Based on sediment‐type associations, the Mekong fluvial to marine transition zone could be subdivided into an upstream tract and a downstream tract; the boundary between these two tracts is identified 80 to 100 km upstream of the river mouth. The upstream tract is characterized by gravelly sand and sand and occasional heterolithic rhythmites, suggesting bed‐load supply and deposition mainly controlled by fluvial processes with subordinate tidal influence. The downstream tract is characterized by heterolithic rhythmites with subordinate sand and mud, suggesting suspended‐load supply and deposition mainly controlled by tidal processes with subordinate fluvial influence. Sediment distributions during wet and dry seasons suggest significant seasonal changes in sediment dynamic and depositional processes along the fluvial to marine transition zone. The upstream tract shows strong fluvial depositional processes with subordinate tidal influence during the wet season and no deposition with weak fluvial and tidal processes during the dry season. The downstream tract shows strong coexisting fluvial and tidal depositional processes during the wet season and strong tidal depositional processes with negligible fluvial influence during the dry season. Turbidity maxima are present along the downstream tract of the fluvial to marine transition zone during both wet and dry seasons and are driven by a combination of fluvial, tidal and wave processes.     

Tropical Cyclone in the North of the South China Sea as a Factor Affecting the Structure of the Vietnamese Current

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Tropical cyclones play a significant role in the formation of the hydrodynamic regime of the South China Sea, including its western part, which is...     

Simple monitoring method for precaution of landslides watching tilting and water contents on slopes surface

A low-cost and simple monitoring method for early warning of landslides is proposed. To detect abnormal deformation of a slope, this method employs a tilt sensor in place of an extensometer on the slope surface. In order to examine the relevance of measuring rotation angle on a slope surface by tilt sensor, model tests were conducted, and rotation on the slope surface was observed together with slide displacement along the surface. The rotation data responded 30 min before failure in a model test, which could be useful as a signal for early warning. However, the behavior of rotation before failure varies from case to case, and thus, criteria to issue warning should be defined more carefully. For a model slope made of uniform loose sand, measurement of slide displacement along the slope surface is sensitive to failure at the toe, while the measurement of rotation on the slope surface is useful to detect the development of progressive failure upward along the slope. Wireless sensor units with microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) tilt sensor and volumetric water content sensor were also examined on a real slope in Kobe City, and a long-term monitoring was attempted. A simple but possible way to define the criteria of judgment to issue warning can be proposed based on combination of data obtained by the tilt sensors and volumetric water content sensors.     

A multimodel comparison for assessing water temperatures under changing climate conditions via the equilibrium temperature concept: case study of the Middle Loire River,France

This paper investigates three categories of models that are derived from the equilibrium temperature concept to estimate water temperatures in the Loire River in France and the sensitivity to changes in hydrology and climate. We test the models' individual performances for simulating water temperatures and assess the variability of the thermal responses under the extreme changing climate scenarios that are projected for 2081–2100. We attempt to identify the most reliable models for studying the impact of climate change on river temperature (T_w). Six models are based on a linear relationship between air temperatures (T_a) and equilibrium temperatures (T_e), six depend on a logistic relationship, and six rely on the closure of heat budgets. For each category, three approaches that account for the river's thermal exchange coefficient are tested. In addition to air temperatures, an index of day length is incorporated to compute equilibrium temperatures. Each model is analysed in terms of its ability to simulate the seasonal patterns of river temperatures and heat peaks. We found that including the day length as a covariate in regression‐based approaches improves the performance in comparison with classical approaches that use only T_a. Moreover, the regression‐based models that rely on the logistic relationship between T_e and T_a exhibit root mean square errors comparable (0.90 °C) with those obtained with a classical five‐term heat budget model (0.82 °C), despite a small number of required forcing variables. In contrast, the regressive models that are based on a linear relationship T_e = f(T_a) fail to simulate the heat peaks and are not advisable for climate change studies. The regression‐based approaches that are based on a logistic relationship and the heat balance approaches generate notably similar responses to the projected climate changes scenarios. This similarity suggests that sophisticated thermal models are not preferable to cruder ones, which are less time‐consuming and require fewer input data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Early-stage transformation of coastal marine governance in Vietnam?

This paper examines an apparent ‘early stage’ governance transformation in the Tam Giang Lagoon, Vietnam. In this context, the role of key policy windows for innovative governance practice is assessed (e.g., changes to Land and Fisheries Laws). Also examined is the emergence of recent initiatives to catalyze a wider shift in governance practice in the region, including the formation of co-management institutional networks that contribute to trust building and learning, and the allocation of collective territorial use rights for fisheries. While these changes are consistent with experiences in other coastal marine contexts, the paper shows that place-based and longitudinal research is necessary to explain and predict the conditions and incentives that catalyze governance shifts. Differences between a governance change and more fundamental transformation are difficult to discern using point-in-time analysis. Moreover, the results show that current declines in ecological conditions in the lagoon may not be reversed by changes to access rights or the emergence of co-management. Rather, these governance changes may simply help to stabilize the situation and buy time until other livelihood opportunities arise. Assessments of governance transformation thus need to be linked to ecological outcomes (i.e., reversing degradation of coastal marine systems, avoiding biophysical tipping points) which may not be easily identified in the short-term. Despite uncertainty, the emergence of policy windows, evidence of institutional innovation, and small-scale rights allocation experiments, all suggest important shifts in the trajectory of governance are underway in the Tam Giang Lagoon.     

Defining a Sea Ice Flag for Envisat Altimetry Mission

This letter presents the development of a sea ice flag algorithm for the Envisat altimetry mission to detect sea ice corrupted sea surface height data within quality control processing. The algorithm takes advantage of having both passive and active microwave sensors on the same platform with coregistered measurements. Its performances have been evaluated based on collocations between the along-track Envisat data with reference maps built from combination of daily grids of sea ice concentration from SSM/I sensors and backscatter cross section from SeaWinds scatterometer on QuikSCAT satellite.