Impacts of recent El Niño Modoki on dry/wet conditions in the Pacific rim during boreal summer

Present work uses 1979–2005 monthly observational data to study the impacts of El Niño Modoki on dry/wet conditions in the Pacific rim during boreal summer. The El Niño Modoki phenomenon is characterized by the anomalously warm central equatorial Pacific flanked by anomalously cool regions in both west and east. Such zonal SST gradients result in anomalous two-cell Walker Circulation over the tropical Pacific, with a wet region in the central Pacific. There are two mid-tropospheric wave trains passing over the extratropical and subtropical North Pacific. They contain a positive phase of a Pacific-Japan pattern in the northwestern Pacific, and a positive phase of a summertime Pacific-North American pattern in the northeastern Pacific/North America region. The western North Pacific summer monsoon is enhanced, while the East Asian summer monsoon is weakened. In the South Pacific, there is a basin-wide low in the mid-latitude with enhanced Australian high and the eastern South Pacific subtropical high. Such an atmospheric circulation pattern favors a dry rim surrounding the wet central tropical Pacific. The El Niño Modoki and its climate impacts are very different from those of El Niño. Possible geographical regions for dry/wet conditions influenced by El Niño Modoki and El Niño are compared. The two phenomena also have very different temporal features. El Niño Modoki has a large decadal background while El Niño is predominated by interannual variability. Mixing-up the two different phenomena may increase the difficulty in understanding their mechanisms, climate impacts, and uncertainty in their predictions.     

Accurate computation of gravitational field of a tesseroid

We developed an accurate method to compute the gravitational field of a tesseroid. The method numerically integrates a surface integral representation of the gravitational potential of the tesseroid by conditionally splitting its line integration intervals and by using the double exponential quadrature rule. Then, it evaluates the gravitational acceleration vector and the gravity gradient tensor by numerically differentiating the numerically integrated potential. The numerical differentiation is conducted by appropriately switching the central and the single-sided second-order difference formulas with a suitable choice of the test argument displacement. If necessary, the new method is extended to the case of a general tesseroid with the variable density profile, the variable surface height functions, and/or the variable intervals in longitude or in latitude. The new method is capable of computing the gravitational field of the tesseroid independently on the location of the evaluation point, namely whether outside, near the surface of, on the surface of, or inside the tesseroid. The achievable precision is 14–15 digits for the potential, 9–11 digits for the acceleration vector, and 6–8 digits for the gradient tensor in the double precision environment. The correct digits are roughly doubled if employing the quadruple precision computation. The new method provides a reliable procedure to compute the topographic gravitational field, especially that near, on, and below the surface. Also, it could potentially serve as a sure reference to complement and elaborate the existing approaches using the Gauss–Legendre quadrature or other standard methods of numerical integration.     

藏北高原D110点土壤温度的极值分析

通过藏北高原Ｄ１１０点一年中不同深度的日最高值、日最低值及日温差的分析,表明从０ｃｍ￣４０ｃｍ,土壤温度的日最高值的变化剧烈,而日最低值的变化则相对平稳,冬半年土壤温度的日最低值、日最高值比较接近,日温差较小,而且它们随时间的变化比较平稳;但夏半年（５￣９月）波动较冬半年的大,且最高温的波动要比最低温的波动大得多;随深度的增加日温差减小,在８０ｃｍ深处已基本上看不到日温差的变化。     

Fast Procedure Solving Universal Kepler's Equation

We developed a procedure to solve a modification of the standard form of the universal Kepler’s equation, which is expressed as a nondimensional equation with respect to a nondimensional variable. After reducing the domain of the variable and the argument by using the symmetry and the periodicity of the equation, the method first separates the case where the solution is so small that it is given an inverted series. Second, it separates the cases where the elliptic, parabolic, or hyperbolic standard forms of Kepler’s equation are suitable. Here the separation is done by judging whether detouring these nonuniversal equations will cause a 1-bit loss of information to their nonuniversal solutions or not. Then the nonuniversal equations are solved by the author’s procedures to solve the elliptic Kepler’s equation (Fukushima, 1997a), Barker’s equation (Fukushima, 1998), and the hyperbolic Kepler’s equation (Fukushima, 1997b), respectively. And their nonuniversal solutions are transformed back to the solution of the universal equation. For the rest of the case, we obtain an approximate solution by solving roughly the approximated cubic equation as we did in solving Barker’s equation. Then the correction to the approximate solution is obtained by Halley’s method precisely. There the special function appeared in the universal equation is rewritten into a combination of similar special functions of small arguments, so that they are efficiently evaluated by their Taylor series. Numerical measurements showed that, in the case of Intel Pentium II processor, the new method is 10–25 times as fast as Shepperd’s method (Shepperd, 1985) and 7–13 times as fast as the standard Newton method. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Predictability of Northwest Pacific climate during summer and the role of the tropical Indian Ocean

A seasonal forecast system based on a global, fully coupled ocean?Catmosphere general circulation model is used to (1) evaluate the interannual predictability of the Northwest Pacific climate during June?CAugust following El Ni?o [JJA(1)], and (2) examine the contribution from the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) variability. The model retrospective forecast for 1983?C2006 captures major modes of atmospheric variability over the Northwest Pacific during JJA(1), including a rise in sea level pressure (SLP), an anomalous anticyclone at the surface, and a reduction in subtropical rainfall, and increased rainfall to the northeast over East Asia. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) for the leading principal components (PCs) of SLP and rainfall stays above 0.5 for lead time up to 3?C4?months. The predictability for zonal wind is slightly better. An additional experiment is performed by prescribing the SST climatology over the TIO. In this run, designated as NoTIO, the Northwest Pacific anticyclone during JJA(1) weakens considerably and reduces its westward extension. Without an interactive TIO, the ACC for PC prediction drops significantly. To diagnose the TIO effect on the circulation, the differences between the two runs (Control minus NoTIO) are analyzed. The diagnosis shows that El Nino causes the TIO SST to rise and to remain high until JJA(1). In response to the higher than usual SST, precipitation increases over the TIO and excites a warm atmospheric Kelvin wave, which propagates into the western Pacific along the equator. The decrease in equatorial SLP drives northeasterly wind anomalies, induces surface wind divergence, and suppresses convection over the subtropical Northwest Pacific. An anomalous anticyclone forms in the Northwest Pacific, and the intensified moisture transport on its northwest flank causes rainfall to increase over East Asia. In the NoTIO experiment, the Northwest Pacific anticyclone weakens but does not disappear. Other mechanisms for maintaining this anomalous circulation are discussed.     

How is the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole excited?

Based on experiments using a coupled general circulation model which resolves tropical ocean–atmosphere coupled phenomena such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole, forcing mechanisms of the Indian Ocean subtropical dipole (IOSD) are investigated. In the control experiment, as in the observation, several types of the IOSD are generated by the variations in the Mascarene High during austral summer and characterized by a dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the northeastern and southwestern parts of the southern Indian Ocean. In another experiment, where the SST outside the southern Indian Ocean is nudged toward the monthly climatology of the simulated SST, one type of the IOSD occurs, but it is less frequent and associated with the zonal wavenumber four pattern of equivalently barotropic geopotential height anomalies in high latitudes, suggesting an interesting link with the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. This indicates that, even without the atmospheric teleconnection from tropical coupled climate modes, the IOSD may develop in association with the atmospheric variability in high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. In the other experiment, where only the southern Indian Ocean and the tropical Pacific are freely interactive with the atmosphere, two types of both positive and negative IOSD occur. Since the occurrence frequency of the IOSD significantly increases as compared to the second experiment, this result confirms that the atmospheric teleconnection from ocean-atmosphere coupled modes in the tropical Pacific such as ENSO may also induce the variations in the Mascarene High that generate the IOSD. The present research, even within the realm of model studies, shows clearly that the predictability of the IOSD in mid-latitudes is related to both low and high-latitudes climate variations.     

Impact of Mascarene High variability on the East African ‘short rains’

The interannual variability of East African ‘short rains’ (EASR) and its link with the Mascarene High (MH) variation are explored, using observations and reanalysis data. Correlation and composite analyses for flood and drought events reveal that the EASR variability is strongly linked to the MH zonal displacement, in particular, the zonal movement of the MH eastern ridge. When the MH eastern ridge is anomalously displaced to the west (east) of its normal position, the south east (SE) trade winds over the South Indian Ocean (SIO) anomalously strengthen (weaken). This enhances (reduces) the relatively cool and dry SE trade winds and induces cold (warm) sea surface temperature anomaly in the SIO. As a result, convection over the western equatorial SIO is suppressed (enhanced) and leads to rainfall deficits (excess) over East Africa. Droughts in East Africa are associated with a westward migration of the MH eastern ridge, while the relationship is less clear for flood events and their link to an eastward migration of the MH. Therefore, the zonal migration of the MH eastern ridge provides a novel indicator for the EASR extremes especially droughts. This revelation has immense social application for rainfall forecast over East Africa where rainfall deficits have become more prevalent against the background of deteriorating conventional forecasts for EASR droughts.     

Respective influences of IOD and ENSO on the Tibetan snow cover in early winter

Using reanalysis data and snow cover data derived from satellite observations, respective influences of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Tibetan snow cover in early winter are investigated. It is found that the snow cover shows a significant positive partial correlation with IOD. In the pure positive IOD years with no co-occurrences of El Niño, negative geopotential height anomalies north of India are associated with warm and humid southwesterlies to enter the plateau from the Bay of Bengal after rounding cyclonically and supply more moisture. This leads to more precipitation, more snow cover, and resultant lower surface temperature over the plateau. These negative geopotential height anomalies north of India are related to the equivalent barotropic stationary Rossby waves in the South Asian wave guide. The waves can be generated by the IOD-related convection anomalies over the western/central Indian Ocean. In contrast, in the pure El Niño years with no co-occurrences of the positive IOD, the anomalies of moisture supply and surface temperature over the plateau are insignificant, suggesting negligible influences of ENSO on the early winter Tibetan snow cover. Further analyses show that ENSO is irrelevant to the spring/early summer Tibetan snow cover either, whereas the IOD-induced snow cover anomalies can persist long from the early winter to the subsequent early summer.     

Tropical Indian Ocean variability revealed by self-organizing maps

The tropical Indian Ocean climate variability is investigated using an artificial neural network analysis called self-organizing map (SOM) for both observational data and coupled model outputs. The SOM successfully captures the dipole sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and basin-wide warming/cooling associated with ENSO. The dipole SSTA pattern appears only in boreal summer and fall, whereas the basin-wide warming/cooling appears mostly in boreal winter and spring owing to the phase-locking nature of these phenomena. Their occurrence also undergoes significant decadal variation. Composite diagrams constructed for nodes in the SOM array based on the simulated SSTA reveal interesting features. For the nodes with the basin-wide warming, a strong positive SSTA in the eastern equatorial Pacific, a negative Southern Oscillation, and a negative precipitation anomaly in East Africa are found. The nodes with the positive IOD are associated with a weak positive SSTA in the central equatorial Pacific or positive SSTA in the eastern equatorial Pacific, a positive (negative) sea level pressure anomaly in the eastern (western) tropical Indian Ocean, and a positive precipitation anomaly over East Africa. The warming in the central equatorial Pacific appears to correspond to El Niño Modoki discussed recently. These results suggest usefulness of SOM in studying large-scale ocean–atmosphere coupled phenomena.     

Diurnal Variation in Radon Concentration and Mixing-Layer Depths

Variation of 222Rn, its short-lived daughters and 212Pb concentrations in the atmosphere, and conditions of the lower atmosphere were observed simultaneously at Kamisaibara Village in Japan. The variation of 222Rn concentration and the ratio of the concentrations of 212Pb and the short-lived daughters of 222Rn during nighttime is explained by sodar echoes and temperature profiles obtained by an instrumented tethered balloon. Depths of the convective mixing layer estimated using the 222Rn concentration, using the surface sensible heat flux, and obtained by low-level sondes are compared and found to be in approximate agreement.