Critical network infrastructure analysis: interdiction and system flow

Effective management of critical network infrastructure requires the assessment of potential interdiction scenarios. Optimization approaches have been essential for identifying and evaluating such scenarios in networked systems. Although a primary function of any network is the distribution of flow between origins and destinations, the complexity and difficulty of mathematically abstracting interdiction impacts on connectivity or flow has been a challenge for researchers. This paper presents an optimization approach for identifying interdiction bounds with respect to connectivity and/or flow associated with a system of origins and destinations. Application results for telecommunications flow are presented, illustrating the capabilities of this approach.

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Holocene Avulsions of the Euphrates River in the Najaf Area of Western Mesopotamia: Impacts on Human Settlement Patterns

We present a study that reconstructs the ancient courses of the Euphrates in part of the Mesopotamian floodplain west and southwest of the ancient site of Babylon. The focus is on tracing paleochannel courses, determining when these paleochannels were active, and understanding the patterns of avulsion. The research was carried out using a combination of geological, geomorphological, remote sensing, historical, and archaeological approaches. Fieldwork included “ground truthing” of the remote sensing work, manually drilling boreholes (up to 7 m in depth), sedimentary and geomorphological documentation and sample collection for radiocarbon dating. As a result, five main courses of the Euphrates in five different periods have been mapped in this area, including four previously unidentified and/or unlocated migrations that linked the different periods. The main courses are the Purattum Course (before 3100–1000 BC), the Arahtum Course (1000–125 BC), the Sura Course (125 BC to AD 1258), the Hilla Course (13th to 19th century AD), and the Hindiya Course (19th to 20th century AD). There has been an overall migration of the main channel from east to west across the study area over time. The location of avulsion nodes changed along the length of the river, mainly downstream over time, but with a cluster of avulsion events near Babylon and a notable man‐made interference in the 20th century at the Hindiya Barrage.     

The role of site effects in the comparison between code provisions and the near field strong motion of the Emilia 2012 earthquakes

A damaging seismic sequence hit a wide area mainly located in the Emilia-Romagna region (Northern Italy) during 2012 with several events of local magnitude \(\hbox {M}_\mathrm{l} \ge 5\) , among which the \(\hbox {M}_\mathrm{l}\) 5.9 May 20 and the \(\hbox {M}_\mathrm{l}\) 5.8 May 29 were the main events. Thanks to the presence of a permanent accelerometric station very close to the epicentre and to the temporary installations performed in the aftermath of the first shock, a large number of strong motion recordings are available, on the basis of which, we compared the recorded signals with the values provided by the current Italian seismic regulations, and we observed several differences with respect to horizontal components when the simplified approach for site conditions (based on Vs30 classes) is used. On the contrary, when using the more accurate approach based on the local seismic response, we generally obtain a much better agreement, at least in the frequency range corresponding to a quarter wavelength comparable with the depth of the available subsoil data. Some unresolved questions still remain, such as the low frequency behaviour ( \(<\) 1 Hz) that could be due either to complex propagation at depth larger than the one presently investigated or to near source effects, and the behaviour of vertical spectra whose recorded/code difference is too large to be explained with the information currently available.     

Catchment response to lava damming: integrating field observation,geochronology and landscape evolution modelling

Combining field reconstruction and landscape evolution modelling can be useful to investigate the relative role of different drivers on catchment response. The Geren Catchment (~45 km²) in western Turkey is suitable for such a study, as it has been influenced by uplift, climate change and lava damming. Four Middle Pleistocene lava flows (⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar‐ dated from 310 to 175 ka) filled and dammed the Gediz River at the Gediz–Geren confluence, resulting in base‐level fluctuations of the otherwise uplift‐driven incising river. Field reconstruction and luminescence dating suggest fluvial terraces in the Geren Catchment are capped by Middle Pleistocene aggradational fills. This showed that incision of the Geren trunk stream has been delayed until the end of MIS 5. Subsequently, the catchment has responded to base‐level lowering since MIS 4 by 30 m of stepped net incision. Field reconstruction left us with uncertainty on the main drivers of terrace formation. Therefore, we used landscape evolution modelling to investigate catchment response to three scenarios of base‐level change: (i) uplift with climate change (rainfall and vegetation based on arboreal pollen); (ii) uplift, climate change and short‐lived damming events; (iii) uplift, climate and long‐lived damming events. Outputs were evaluated for erosion–aggradation evolution in trunk streams at two different distances from the catchment outlet. Climate influences erosion–aggradation activity in the catchment, although internal feedbacks influence timing and magnitude. Furthermore, lava damming events partly control if and where these climate‐driven aggradations occur. Damming thus leaves a legacy on current landscape evolution. Catchment response to long‐duration damming events corresponds best with field reconstruction and dating. The combination of climate and base level explains a significant part of the landscape evolution history of the Geren Catchment. By combining model results with fieldwork, additional conclusions on landscape evolution could be drawn. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scenarios for Community-based Approaches to Biodiversity Conservation: a case study from the Wet Tropics,Queensland, Australia

Natural resource management approaches that deliver biodiversity conservation remain elusive, with evidence of a persistent implementation gap between biodiversity science and conservation projects. Scenarios have been identified as potentially useful in addressing the complex issues underlying this implementation gap, but have been infrequently applied to biodiversity conservation. Our paper reports on action co-research to develop, apply and assess the efficacy of scenarios within a community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) approach to biodiversity conservation at Mission Beach, a key site within the globally significant Wet Tropics bioregion. We focused on the capacity of scenarios to address the issues of contested interests and uncertainty, aiming specifically to engage the community to build a cohesive vision. The scenarios' headline messages included a projected substantial loss of habitat in coastal vegetation communities that are highly valued by all stakeholders. Our assessment identified that the use of scenarios fulfilled the intended aims, resulting in a vision for biodiversity conservation that has substantial community support. Three factors contributed to this efficacy of the scenarios: (1) the focus on threat; (2) biodiversity science integration; and (3) simplicity in presentation. Further investigation of the potential of scenarios as tools to overcome the implementation gap in biodiversity conservation is recommended.