地图目标局部分形描述的元分维模型的实现

提出了一种基于分形理论的元分维模型，可以用于描述地图目标的局部形态特征变化，为地图目标的进一步分析应用提供了一个新的思路。     

SVD迭代模型在夏季降水预测中的应用

文中设计了一种基于SVD迭代的短期气候预测模型,通过选择适当的影响因子,建立与预测对象之间的联系,从而实现对气象场序列的预测。分别对华北16个测站和长江中下游地区30个测站1991—2000年近10a夏季(6—8月)降水做预测试验,平均均方误差分别为0.352和0.312,平均符号相关系数分别为0.575和0.623。此研究表明,基于SVD迭代的气候预测模型是一种非常有效的短期气候预测途径,具有很强的应用价值。     

Decreasing Reference Evapotranspiration in a Warming Climate—A Case of Changjiang (Yangtze) River Catchment During 1970–2000

This study deals with temporal trends in the Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration estimated from standard meteorological observations, observed pan evaporation, and four related meteorological variables during 1970–2000 in the Yangtze River catchment. Relative contributions of the four meteorological variables to changes in the reference evapotranspiration are quantified. The results show that both the reference evapotranspiration and the pan evaporation have significant decreasing trends in the upper, the middle as well as in the whole Changjiang (Yangtze) River catchment at the 5% significance level, while the air temperature shows a significant increasing trend. The decreasing trend detected in the reference evapotranspiration can be attributed to the significant decreasing trends in the net radiation and the wind speed.     

基于等高线构建TIN模型的平三角形修正算法

设计了一种平三角形修正算法来修正TIN模型中可能出现的平三角形区域。该算法通过对由平三角形组成的区域进行分类,并针对不同的平区域采用交换边、增加点甚至不处理的修正方法,同时对由于等高线数据错误产生的一些特殊情况进行了分析处理。实验结果表明,该算法能够去除约束型狄洛尼三角网中所有应修正的平三角形,并生成对地形描述更为精确的三角网。     

基于岩石变形声发射实验结果讨论岩石失稳的可预测性

根据室内岩石变形声发射实验结果,计算了声发射序列的地震非均匀度GL值,并以此探讨了岩石破裂失稳的可预测性。在双轴压缩、等速率加载条件下,含障碍体断层、挤压雁列断层和Ⅲ型剪切断层等非连续岩石标本在临近滑动失稳前,声发射活动均出现了显著的均匀—非均匀的状态变化,表现为GL值出现持续大于1的异常变化,GL值异常的位置与破裂成核部位相重合,并与断层走向一致;改变统计窗长、窗内分割数及能级统计下限计算声发射序列的GL值,结果表明,GL值计算结果具有一定的稳定性。综合分析认为,地震非均匀度(GL值)可以较好地刻画岩石失稳前夕因破裂成核导致的声发射活动在时间分布上的状态变化,GL值持续异常是岩石失稳的显著性标志,对预测岩石失稳具有较好的指示意义。     

Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment

Precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment (PR China) have been analyzed for the past 50 years by applying the Mann-Kendall trend test and geospatial analyses. Monthly precipitation trends of 36 stations have been calculated. Significant positive trends at many stations can be observed for the summer months, which naturally show precipitation maxima. They were preceded and/or followed by negative trends. This observation points towards a concentration of summer precipitation within a shorter period of time. The analysis of a second data set on a gridded basis with 0.5° resolution reveals trends with distinct spatial patterns. The combination of classic trend tests and spatially interpolated precipitation data sets allows the spatiotemporal visualization of detected trends. Months with positive trends emphasize the aggravation of severe situation in a region, which is particularly prone to flood disasters during summer. Reasons for the observed trends were found in variations in the meridional wind pattern at the 850 hPa level, which account for an increased transport of warm moist air to the Yangtze River catchment during the summer months.     

改进的传染型余震序列模型

将有限幂律公式（LPL）应用到传染型余震序列模型（ETAS）中，并对原ETAS模型加以改进。以台湾集集地震早期余震序列为例，对原ETAS模型与改进的ETAS模型进行了对比分析，结果表明改进的ETAS模型要优于原ETAS模型。     

The Impact Cooling of the Storm-Induced SST on Hurricane Intensity

The effects of storm-induced sea surface temperature （SST） cooling on hurricane intensity are investigated using a 5-day cloud-resolving simulation of Hurricane Bonnie （1998）. Two sensitivity simulations are performed in which the storm-induced cooling is either ignored or shifted close to the modeled storm track. Results show marked sensitivity of the model-simulated storm intensity to the magnitude and relative position with respect to the hurricane track. It is shown that incorporation of the storm-induced cooling, with an average value of 1.3℃, causes a 25-hPa weakening of the hurricane, which is about 20 hPa per 1℃ change in SST. Shifting the SST cooling close to the storm track generates the weakest storm, accounting for about 47% reduction in the storm intensity. It is found that the storm intensity changes are well correlated with the air-sea temperature difference. The results have important implications for the use of coupled hurricane-ocean models for numerical prediction of tropical cyclones.     

桃仙机场雷雨转雨夹雪天气的分析

通过对桃仙机场仅有的两次雷雨转雨夹雪天气过程的分析，总结出此类天气的形势特点，并初步得出此类天气预报的着眼点，为秋季飞行提供可靠的预报保障。     

昆明地区早寒武世关山动物群研究新进展

总结了昆明地区关山动物群自1999年命名以来开展的研究工作和取得的新进展.简要叙述了关山动物群的研究概况、地层位置、生物群组合特征和关山动物群的研究意义.在关山动物群中首次发现了古虫动物门的Vetulicola gangtoucunensis Luo,Fu et Hu,吐卓虫Tuzoia sp.nov.,古蠕虫Palaeoscolex sp.nov.,腕足类Heliomedusa sp.nov.及三叶形虫、海绵动物新属种.指出关山动物群是一个由多门类软躯体后生动物化石组成的伯吉斯页岩型的动物群,时代介于澄江动物群与凯里动物群(或伯吉斯页岩动物群)之间,起到了承前启后的作用,在寒武纪生命大爆发和寒武纪早期生物演化的研究中有重要意义.