云南地区近期强震重复发生时地震学的动态演化特征

通过地强震重复发生的滇西北、滇东北、滇西南澜沧江以西３个地震区多项地震活动性和地震波参数的动态追踪，发现在同一地震区重复发生的强震，震前的异常形态可以具有相惟性，反向变化的特征。如滇东北地区中小地震在１９８５年禄劝强震前的活跃和１９９５年武定强震前的平静；澜沧地震叶波速比月均值在１９８８年澜沧－－耿马大震前的低值异常和１９９５年孟连西中缅边境大震前的高值异常。本同时以ｂ值和波速比为例，讨论了强震     

A mechanism for formation of the western North Pacific monsoon trough: nonlinear upscale cascade

Linear and nonlinear barotropic vorticity model frameworks are constructed to understand the formation of the monsoon trough in boreal summer over the western North Pacific. The governing equation is written with respect to specified zonal background flows, and a wave perturbation is prescribed in the eastern boundary. Whereas a uniform background mean flow leads no scale contraction, a confluent background zonal flow causes the contraction of zonal wavelength. Under linear dynamics, the wave contraction leads to the development of smaller scale vorticity perturbations. As a result, there is no upscale cascade. Under nonlinear dynamics, cyclonic (anticyclonic) wave disturbances shift northward (southward) away from the central latitude due to the vorticity segregation process. The merging of small-scale cyclonic and anticyclonic perturbations finally leads to the generation of a pair of large-scale cyclonic and anti-cyclonic vorticity gyres, straddling across the central latitude. The large-scale cyclonic circulation due to nonlinear upscale cascade can be further strengthened through a positive convection-circulation feedback.

     

中国建筑气候分区和采暖气候条件变化研究

利用1951-1980年和1981-2010年两个气候期的月平均气温数据,对中国大陆地区建筑气候分区进行对比,讨论建筑气候分区的变化;并基于近气候期的建筑气候分区以逐日气温为基础,讨论了1951-2018年不同分区采暖气候条件变化特征。结果表明：与1951-1980年相比,1981-2010年严寒地区范围有所缩减,南界北移;寒冷区、夏热冬冷区、夏热冬暖区北进,温和区西扩,夏热冬暖区范围增大。中国大陆采暖度日数、采暖日数、采暖日均强度分布一致,东部随纬向增加,西部随海拔增加;采暖度日数严寒地区最大,寒冷地区其次,夏热冬暖地区最小;1951-2018年,中国大陆各建筑分区的采暖度日数都呈显著减少趋势,减少速率严寒地区最大,温和地区最小;夏热冬冷地区距平百分率的波动最大,严寒地区波动最小。1998-2012年,全国各建筑气候分区采暖度日数和采暖日均强度在此期间均表现为增加,其中夏热冬暖地区增加趋势通过了0.05显著性检验。     

ANALYSIS OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF SUSTAINED TORRENTIAL RAINS IN JUNES DURING 1958-2000

Day-to-day precipitation data of Junes during the 43 years of 1958-2000 from stations to the south of Yangtze River are used to divide regions and run statistical analysis of sustained torrential rainfall processes. A preliminary analysis is then made based on it and the results show that June is the month in which torrential rains in the southern half of China take place frequently and sustained torrential rains occur at the same time in South China and the area to the south of Yangtze River. In addition, the analysis gives the basic features of sustained torrential rains of June in China and their interannual variability patterns, with the suggestion that the amount of these events increases significantly after the 1990s. Lastly, the sustained torrential rains occurring in Junes of 1994, 1998 and 2005 in the southern half of China are taken as examples in the research on the basic patterns and formation mechanisms of the evolution of double rain-bands during the rain season in South China and the area to the south of Yangtze River. The analysis shows that the large scale environment field in which sustained torrential rains occur is related to the stable sustaining of the South Asia High and upper level jet streams.     

利用不同资料研究我国大陆上空柱水汽含量

利用1971—2001年探空资料以及ERA-40和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料分别得到地面到300 hPa我国大陆上空大气柱水汽含量,对3种不同资料所得的柱水汽含量的空间分布特征以及线性趋势进行对比分析。结果表明:3种资料得到的柱水汽含量年平均和季节平均的空间分布特征一致;3种资料年平均的线性变化趋势在东北地区、内蒙古东部地区,西南地区北部、华南沿海和新疆北部地区均呈增加趋势;在华北和华东的部分地区,ERA-40和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料为降低趋势,而探空资料得到的柱水汽含量变化相对较小,但未通过信度检验;探空资料得到的柱水汽含量的相对变化显示我国东北地区、内蒙古东部地区、新疆地区的增加更显著。     

A fuzzy-Markov-chain-based analysis method for reservoir operation

In this study, a fuzzy-Markov-chain-based stochastic dynamic programming (FM-SDP) method is developed for tackling uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and distributions with fuzzy probability (DFPs) in reservoir operation. The concept of DFPs used in Markov chain is presented as an extended form for expressing uncertainties including both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. A fuzzy dominance index analysis approach is proposed for solving multiple fuzzy sets and DPFs in the proposed FM-SDP model. Solutions under a set of α-cut levels and fuzzy dominance indices can be generated by solving a series of deterministic submodels. The developed method is applied to a case study of a reservoir operation system. Solutions from FM-SDP provide a range of desired water-release policies under various system conditions for reservoir operation decision makers, reflecting dynamic and dual uncertain features of water availability simultaneously. The results indicate that the FM-SDP method could be applicable to practical problems for decision makers to obtain insight regarding the tradeoffs between economic and system reliability criteria. Willingness to obtain a lower benefit may guarantee meeting system-constraint demands; conversely, a desire to acquire a higher benefit could run into a higher risk of violating system constraints.     

CCSD HP-UHP变质岩中磷灰石稀土元素(REE)地球化学及其示踪意义

磷灰石是一种能在UHP变质峰期稳定存在并富含稀土元素(BEE)的常见副矿物,其BEE组成变化可以对变质过程进行地球化学示踪.本文利用激光剥蚀等离子光谱仪(LA-ICP-MS)对中国大陆科学钻探(CCSD)钻井中及其附近出露的不同变质程度的HP-UHP变质岩(榴辉岩、角闪(片)岩和片麻岩)中的磷灰石进行了REE组成原位测定,结果显示不同围岩中磷灰石的BEE组成特征及其相关系数变化很大,其球粒陨石标准化配分曲线可以分为3大类Ⅰ.轻稀土(LBEE)富集型,其REE总量(∑REE)很高,可达n×1000×10-6;Ⅱ.中稀土(MREE)富集型,其(La/Sm)N＜1,Eu异常变化较大;Ⅲ.重稀土(HREE)富集型,其配分曲线呈明显的左倾形式,∑BEE总量很低,仅为9.228×10-6,且具明显的Eu负异常.磷灰石颗粒原位分析显示从边部到中心∑LREE有逐渐升高的趋势,表明了在俯冲折返的过程发生过短时增温作用,并极有可能发生过部分熔融.部分熔融过程中磷灰石中的LREE将与其它大离子半径元素一起优先释放.     

利用δ~(53)Cr定量评价Cr(Ⅵ)还原程度的实验研究

地下水污染的"原位修复"是当今国际上净化地下水最具发展前景的新技术,但对铬污染地下水"原位修复"尚未有科学有效的评价方法。定量评价地下水中Cr(Ⅵ)的被还原程度成为保护与修复铬污染地下水的关键问题。通过室内Cr(Ⅵ)的还原实验,分析Cr(Ⅵ)在还原过程中铬稳定同位素变化规律,研究其分馏机理,探索利用铬同位素定量评价地下水中Cr(Ⅵ)还原程度的可行性。研究结果表明:Cr(Ⅵ)在被还原成Cr(Ⅲ)过程中,发生明显的同位素分馏,即反应物中53Cr逐渐富集,同时生成物中52Cr逐渐富集;分馏过程可用瑞利分馏模型描述,分馏系数α为常数0.99842。表明δ53Cr能够定量评价水体中Cr(Ⅵ)的还原程度,为评价地下水铬污染修复提供了新途径。     

黄河口及其邻近海域营养盐分布特征

1985年5、8月中法联合调查黄河口海域的营养盐,其样品采用常规的分光光度法测定。营养盐的分布总趋势是河口附近浓度高,外海浓度低,河口与外海浓度之比达数百倍。在河口及其邻近海域营养盐的分布梯度与盐度的分布一致。在河口控制营养盐含量的主要因素是河水和海水的混合过程。在119°30′～50′E,37°25′～38°5′N,PO_4—P,SiO_3—Si出现低值区。在此范围附近恰恰浮游植物的总量比较高。对8月份的02站进行了25h的连续观测,其结果是底层营养盐与盐度有良好的负相关性,而表层的相关性较差 黄河具有很高的氮磷比值,这很可能是农业上用氮肥量增多引起的。     

应用Bernese软件进行高精度GPS定位解算

介绍了高精度的GPS处理软件Bernese的组成、特点以及使用技巧,通过实例说明了BPE完全可以满足高精度GPS数据自动处理的需要。