An analysis of heat waves in Serbia

In this study, heat waves at three meteorological stations in Serbia were analyzed based on the daily maximum temperature during the summer (June, July and August). The warmest summers as regards heat wave duration and severity occurred within the periods 1951–1952, 1987–1998 (especially 1994) and 2000–2007. The longest heat waves were recorded in 1952, lasting 16 days in Smederevska Palanka and 21 days in Ni?, while in 1994 in Belgrade lasting 18 days. The summer of 1994 in Belgrade and Smederevska Palanka, and 2003 in Ni? were characterized with the highest number of consecutive tropical days (21 and 29, respectively).The autoregressive-moving-average models were applied to generate long series of the daily maximum temperature, from which the relative frequencies of heat waves were estimated. The relationships between the longest heat waves, and the circulation conditions were analyzed using the subjective Hess–Brezowsky catalogue of weather types.     

The broad Fe Kα line and supermassive black holes

Here we present an overview of some of the most significant observational and theoretical studies of the broad Fe Kα spectral line, which is believed to originate from the innermost regions of relativistic accretion disks around central supermassive black holes of galaxies. The most important results of our investigations in this field are also listed. All these investigations indicate that the broad Fe Kα line is a powerful tool for studying the properties of the supermassive black holes (such as their masses and spins), space–time geometry (metric) in their vicinity, their accretion physics, probing the effects of their strong gravitational fields, and for testing the certain predictions of General Relativity.     

Factors that contributed to recent eutrophication of two Slovenian mountain lakes

Increased eutrophication was recently observed in the 5th (5J) and 6th (6J) Triglav Lakes, two remote Slovenian mountain lakes. Sediment phosphorus (P) pools were analysed and potential external P sources affecting the lakes (atmospheric deposition, terrestrial export and nearby hut) evaluated, to assess the effects of internal and external changes on the lakes. A sequential extraction procedure was used to quantify five P fractions from the sediments: adsorbed (NH₄Cl–P), redox-sensitive (BD–P), aluminium- (NaOH–P) and calcium- (HCl–P) bound, and refractory organic (Res–P) P. Total phosphorus (TP) contents in surface sediment of 5J and 6J were 1430 and 641 µg P g^?1 dry weight sediment (dw), respectively. TP varied with depth in 5J sediments, but displayed no discernible pattern, whereas it decreased steadily downcore in 6J. Contents of all P forms were distinctly higher in 5J than 6J, but their rank order and relative abundances were similar in the two lakes. Res–P was the most abundant P fraction, followed by HCl–P. Together, the two P forms accounted for nearly 80 and 90% of TP in 5J and 6J sediments, respectively. BD–P and NaOH–P were less abundant, with each fraction accounting for 3 to 9% of TP, whereas NH₄Cl–P was least abundant. Atmospheric deposition and terrestrial export were substantial sources of P for the lakes. Delivery of the former was estimated to be at least 7.5 mg P m^?2 yr^?1 and the latter around 20 mg P m^?2 yr^?1. We concluded that P was not retained in the catchment effectively, likely because of only slightly acidic soil pH (5.9), relatively low aluminium content and high organic matter content (53%) in soils, resulting in higher vulnerability of the studied lakes to eutrophication. The mountain hut could also be a significant source of P for the lakes. Each year, it could potentially contribute ~12 kg of soluble P to the environment, but the true impact of the hut on lake trophic status remains unclear.     

Chrystal and Proudman resonances simulated with three numerical models

The aim of this work was to study Chrystal and Proudman resonances in a simple closed basin and to explore and compare how well the two resonant mechanisms are reproduced with different, nowadays widely used, numerical ocean models. The test case was based on air pressure disturbances of two commonly used shapes (a sinusoidal and a boxcar), having various wave lengths, and propagating at different speeds. Our test domain was a closed rectangular basin, 300 km long with a uniform depth of 50 m, with the theoretical analytical solution available for benchmark. In total, 2250 simulations were performed for each of the three different numerical models: ADCIRC, SCHISM and ROMS. During each of the simulations, we recorded water level anomalies and computed the integral of the energy density spectrum for a number of points distributed along the basin. We have successfully documented the transition from Proudman to Chrystal resonance that occurs for a sinusoidal air pressure disturbance having a wavelength between one and two basin lengths. An inter-model comparison of the results shows that different models represent the two resonant phenomena in a slightly different way. For Chrystal resonance, all the models showed similar behavior; however, ADCIRC model providing slightly higher values of the mean resonant period than the other two models. In the case of Proudman resonance, the most consistent results, closest to the analytical solution, were obtained using ROMS model, which reproduced the mean resonant speed equal to 22.00 m/s— i.e., close to the theoretical value of 22.15 m/s. ADCIRC and SCHISM models showed small deviations from that value, with the mean speed being slightly lower—21.97 m/s (ADCIRC) and 21.93 m/s (SCHISM). The findings may seem small but could play an important role when resonance is a crucial process producing enhancing effects by two orders of magnitude (i.e., meteotsunamis).     

Numerical case study of the Altai-Sayan lee cyclogenesis over East Asia

Summary Climatological studies show that the Altai-Sayan lee side is one of the major cyclogenesis areas in the Northern Hemisphere. In case of the Altai-Sayan lee cyclogenesis, the surface cyclone is generated when a primary cyclone is swept north of the mountains. In the mid-troposphere, a trough develops and finally turns into a cutoff low within 48 h. The main synoptic features are similar to those of Alpine cyclogenesis. Numerical simulations are performed to assess the effect of different representation of orography on the Altai-Sayan cyclogenesis. Two experiments are performed, a step-mountain (ETA) and an envelope orography (SGM) experiment. The ETA experiment produced the cyclogenesis in a way similar to that in the analysis both at the surface and at mid-troposphere. The SGM experiment failed in the simulation of the upper cutoff low. The difference in predicted pressure between the ETA and the SGM experiment shows a dipolar structure suggesting that the blocking effect of the mountains is essential in the development of the Altai-Sayan lee cyclogenesis.With 7 Figures     

Multiple discriminant analysis of the Drava River alluvial plain sediments

Three discriminant function models are raised and cross-compared in order to distinguish geochemical patterns characteristic for the Drava River floodplain sediments. Based on data representing total element concentrations in samples collected from alluvium (A), terrace (T), and unconsolidated bedrock (B) at the border of a floodplain, four element clusters emerged accounting for discrimination between the referred groups of sediments. The most prominent is contaminant/carbonate cluster characteristic for alluvium. The other two are: silicate cluster typical for unconsolidated geological substrate (Neogene sedimentary rocks); and naturally dispersed heavy metal cluster separating terrace from the former two groups. Models introducing depth intervals and single profiles as grouping criteria reveal identical sediment-heavy metal matrices. The second important issue of this paper is possibility of reclassification of samples originally assigned to one of the a priori defined groups of sediments, based on established geochemical pattern. The mapped geological units can be reconsidered by the post hoc assignments to a different group if geological border between alluvium and terrace or between terrace and bedrock can not be established geologically with absolute certainty.     

The role of water mass dynamics in controlling bacterial abundance and production in the middle Adriatic Sea

Month-to-month fluctuations in the abundance of bacteria and heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNF) and bacterial production, as well as various chemical (nutrients, oxygen) and physical (salinity, temperature) parameters were analysed at a station located in the open middle Adriatic Sea during one decade (1997-2006). Being influenced by both coastal waters and open Adriatic circulation in the surface layer, and by the deep Adriatic water masses in the deep layers (100 m), this station is quite suitable for detecting the environmental changes occurring in the open Adriatic Sea with respect to the circulation of its water masses and their long-term changes and anomalies. Multivariate methods were used to identify seasonal and inter-annual changes of the investigated parameters, associating observed changes to the changes in Adriatic water masses and circulation regimes. The analyses showed that bacterial abundance and production were controlled by different water mass dynamics during 1997-2001 compared to 2002-2006 period, particularly noticeable in different seasonal patterns of biological parameters. The interplay between North Adriatic Dense Water (NAdDW) and Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW) resulted in a change in the available nutrients (NAdDW is poor in orthophosphates), and as a consequence different bacterial abundance and production. A few periods were examined in detail, such as 2004, when LIW inflow was particularly strong and was accompanied by an increase of bacterial and HNF abundances, as well as of bacterial production.     

Classification of F ring features observed in Cassini UVIS occultations

The Cassini Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph (UVIS) has detected 27 statistically significant features in 101 occultations by Saturn’s F ring since July 2004. This work nearly doubles the number of features reported by Esposito et al. (Esposito, L.W. et al. [2008]. Icarus 194, 278–289). As the number of statistically significant features has grown, it has become useful to classify them for the purposes of cataloging. We define three classes: Moonlet, Icicle, and Core, which visually classify the shapes of features seen to date in the occultation profiles of Saturn’s F ring. Two features fall into the Moonlet class. Each is opaque in its occultation, which makes them candidates for solid objects. A majority of features are classified as Icicles, which partially block stellar signal for 22 m to just over 3.7 km along the radial expanse of the occultation. The density enhancements responsible for such signal attenuations are likely due to transient clumping of material, evidence that aggregations of material are ubiquitous in the F ring. Finally, the variety of core region shapes displays how even the general shape of the F ring is ever-changing. The core region of the F ring (typically ～10 km wide) usually has a smooth U-shape to it, but the core region takes the shape of Ws and Vs in some occultation profiles. Our lengthy observing campaign reveals that Icicles are likely transient clumps, moonlets are possible solid objects, and cores show the variety of F ring morphology. We suggest that icicles may evolve into moonlets, which are an order of magnitude less abundant.     

New Definition of Discovery for Solar System Objects

We propose a new formal definition of discovery for a Solar System object. It is based on an objective and mathematically rigorous algorithm to assess when a set of observations is enough to constitute a discovery. When this definition is satisfied, in almost all cases the orbit is defined well enough to establish the nature of the object discovered (Main Belt vs. Near Earth Asteroid, Trans-Neptunian vs. long period comet). The frequency of occurrence of exceptions is estimated by a set of numerical experiments. The availability of a non-subjective definition of discovery allows some rules to be adopted for the assignment of discovery credit with a minimum risk of dispute. Such rules should be fair, encourage good practice by the observers and acknowledge the contribution of the orbit computers providing the identifications and the orbits, as well as the one of all the contributing observers.     

Modeling Urban Land Use Changes Using Support Vector Machines

Support Vector Machines (SVM) is a machine learning (ML) algorithm commonly applied to the classification of remotely sensing data and more recently for modeling land use changes. However, in most geospatial applications the current literature does not elaborate on specifications of the SVM method with respect to data sampling, attribute selection and optimal parameters choices. Therefore the main objective of this study is to present and investigate the SVM technique for modeling urban land use change. The SVM model building procedure is presented together with the detailed evaluation of the output results with respect to the choice of datasets, attributes and the change of SVM parameters. Geospatial datasets containing nine land use classes and spatial attributes for the Municipality of Zemun, Republic of Serbia were used for years 2001, 2003, 2007 and 2011. The Correlation‐based Feature Subset method, kappa coefficient, Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) and kappa simulation were used to perform the model evaluation and compare the model outputs with the real land use datasets. The obtained results indicate that the SVM‐based models perform better when implementing balanced data sampling, reduced data sets to informative subsets of attributes and properly identify the optimal learning parameters.