Adaptive Management of the Storage Function for a Large Reservoir Using Learned Fuzzy Models

Water Resources - A single study investigates the possibility of using adaptive control of the reservoir Vranov Reservoir situated on the Dyje River. The control algorithm uses a fuzzy model that...     

Magnetic classification of stony meteorites: 3. Achondrites

Abstract— A database of magnetic susceptibility measurements of stony achondrites (acapulcoite‐lodranite clan, winonaites, ureilites, angrites, aubrites, brachinites, howardite‐eucrite‐diogenite (HED) clan, and Martian meteorites, except lunar meteorites) is presented and compared to our previous work on chondrites. This database provides an exhaustive study of the amount of iron‐nickel magnetic phases (essentially metal and more rarely pyrrhotite and titanomagnetite) in these meteorites. Except for ureilites, achondrites appear much more heterogeneous than chondrites in metal content, both at the meteorite scale and at the parent body scale. We propose a model to explain the lack of or inefficient metal segregation in a low gravity context. The relationship between grain density and magnetic susceptibility is discussed. Saturation remanence appears quite weak in most metal‐bearing achondrites (HED and aubrites) compared to Martian meteorites. Ureilites are a notable exception and can carry a strong remanence, similar to most chondrites.     

The spectrum and position of solar noise storms at decameter wavelengths

Decametric storm radiation during the period July–August 1970 has been observed simultaneously with a high sensitivity spectrograph at Arecibo Observatory and with the log-periodic, swept-frequency array of the Clark Lake Radio Observatory. The observations complement each other; different types of fine structure emissions can be easily identified on the spectrograph records and their position can be determined from the swept-frequency recordings. We study the relative positions of the different emissions which have been observed during the storms. Four distinct sources appeared to be present. The continuum emission, the type I bursts and the flare-related type III's were all emitted at different locations. The storm type III bursts, type IIIb's and drift pairs overlapped in position, but appeared at different locations than the previously mentioned sources.On leave of absence from Instituto Argentino de Radioastronomia, Argentina.     

An efficient method for the numerical calculation of viscous effects on transient long waves

Previous studies have shown that the Boussinesq equations can be used to calculate the instantaneous bottom shear stress induced by transient or periodic waves. The bottom friction term occurs as a convolution integral in time in the continuity equation. The exact numerical integration of a convolution integral demands large computational resources, which makes the method less useful for large scale computations. In this paper we explore how the value of the convolution integral can be estimated if we only use the values of the variables in a limited number of time steps, and discuss the accuracy and computational cost of this method.     

Adaptive Management of the Global Climate Problem: Bridging the Gap Between Climate Research and Climate Policy

To date the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concerned itself with gathering a state of the art review of the science of climate change. While significant progress has been made in enhancing our integrated understanding of the climate system and the dynamics of the social systems that produce an array of potential greenhouse gases, it is also clear from the panel's reports how far the science community is from being able to present a dynamic and synoptic view of the climate system as a whole. Clear evidence of these complexities and uncertainties inherent in the climate system is evident in efforts aimed at designing robust policy interventions. In this paper, we argue that the adaptive management framework in ecosystem management may be a useful model for guiding how the IPCC can continue to be relevant both as a scientific establishment and as a policy-relevant scientific endeavor.     

Palsas in Härjedalen, Sweden: 1910 and 1998 Compared

In 1998 an area near Helagsfjället in Härjedalen was investigated in an attempt to relocate palsas discovered by the botanist Harry Smith in 1910. Several small palsa-like features with ice cores were detected. The palsas were found on an almost flat peat bog at 950 m, 3 km NW of Helagsfjället. Five clearly elevated mounds and some indistinct ones with palsa-like features were traced. The five mounds were about 0.6 m high and had an area of about 2 × 3 m. One of the mounds was examined in more detail. At a depth of 0.3 m in the peat an ice body with a hard ice core was found. This location is the most southerly area known with occurrence of palsa-like forms in Sweden at the present time. In spite of a warmer climate towards the latter part of this century, palsa-like features have survived in this area. The mean annual temperature barely fits the criterion for palsa formation while the mean annual precipitation is too high as compared with the general assumptions. The palsa formation is probably dependent on strong winds thinning out the snowcover.     

Risk and uncertainty analysis of gas pipeline failure and gas combustion consequence

Taking into account a general concept of risk parameters and knowing that natural gas provides very significant portion of energy, firstly, it is important to insure that the infrastructure remains as robust and reliable as possible. For this purpose, authors present available statistical information and probabilistic analysis related to failures of natural gas pipelines. Presented historical failure data is used to model age-dependent reliability of pipelines in terms of Bayesian methods, which have advantages of being capable to manage scarcity and rareness of data and of being easily interpretable for engineers. The performed probabilistic analysis enables to investigate uncertainty and failure rates of pipelines when age-dependence is significant and when it is not relevant. The results of age-dependent modeling and analysis of gas pipeline reliability and uncertainty are applied to estimate frequency of combustions due to natural gas release when pipeline failure occurs. Estimated age-dependent combustion frequency is compared and proposed to be used instead of conservative and age-independent estimate. The rupture of a high-pressure natural gas pipeline can lead to consequences that can pose a significant threat to people and property in the close vicinity to the pipeline fault location. The dominant hazard is combustion and thermal radiation from a sustained fire. The second purpose of the paper is to present the combustion consequence assessment and application of probabilistic uncertainty analysis for modeling of gas pipeline combustion effects. The related work includes performance of the following tasks: to study gas pipeline combustion model, to identify uncertainty of model inputs noting their variation range, and to apply uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for results of this model. The performed uncertainty analysis is the part of safety assessment that focuses on the combustion consequence analysis. Important components of such uncertainty analysis are qualitative and quantitative analysis that identifies the most uncertain parameters of combustion model, assessment of uncertainty, analysis of the impact of uncertain parameters on the modeling results, and communication of the results’ uncertainty. As outcome of uncertainty analysis the tolerance limits and distribution function of thermal radiation intensity are given. The measures of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were estimated and outcomes presented applying software system for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Conclusions on the importance of the parameters and sensitivity of the results are obtained using a linear approximation of the model under analysis. The outcome of sensitivity analysis confirms that distance from the fire center has the greatest influence on the heat flux caused by gas pipeline combustion.     

Magnetic properties and Archeointensity of Earth’s magnetic field recovered from El Opeño,earliest funeral architecture known in Western Mesoamerica

Despite of the impressive cultural heritage and abundant archaeological sites, absolute geomagnetic intensity data from Mesoamerica are still sparse. Archeointensity determinations using the Coe variant of the Thellier and Thellier method have been carried out on some selected pottery fragments from the El Opeño archeological site which has the earliest funeral architecture known in western Mesoamerica. The El Opeño chronology is supported by six C¹⁴ datings performed on carbon-bearing materials. Detailed rock magnetic experiments including susceptibility vs. temperature curves, hysteresis cycles and thermal demagnetization procedures were carried out in order to estimate the magnetic carriers and their stability. Cooling rate and anisotropy remanence corrected intensity values range from 25.0 ± 2.3 to 40.2 ± 3.0 μT and corresponding virtual axial dipole moments (VADM) range from 5.6 ± 0.5 to 8.9 ± 0.7 × 10²² Am². In addition, we present here a new compilation and analysis of existing absolute intensity data in order to try to estimate the variation of the Earth’s magnetic field over the past three millennia. The mean archeointensity obtained in the present study agrees reasonably well with the predicted absolute intensities retrieved from the CALS7K main field model. Other available Mesoamerican data, however, differ from this model. Most of available archeointensity data from Mesoamerica agree reasonably well with the ARCH3K main field model prediction. The broad peak defined at about 50 A.D. by our data is also predicted by the CALS3k.3 main field model but slightly displaced to the right while two smaller peaks are observed on the ARCH3K curve for the same time interval. The intensity value obtained at about 200 B.C. is a clear outlier and thus its geomagnetic significance should be confirmed by further investigations.     

Organic Geochemical Microanalysis by Time‐of‐Flight Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (ToF‐SIMS)

Time‐of‐flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF‐SIMS) is a powerful method for the chemical analysis of solid surfaces. In this paper, the capabilities and limitations of this technique and the potential for its use in geochemical research are outlined. Using ToF‐SIMS, the chemical composition of sample structures down to 10–100 μm can be determined, without the need for pre‐selection or labelling of the analysed substances. In addition, the lateral distribution of organic and inorganic compounds can be mapped in geochemical samples at a resolution in the micrometre range. The capabilities of the technique in geochemistry are illustrated by two examples. In the first example, it is shown that ToF‐SIMS can be used to detect biomarkers in oil samples, making it a promising method for the analysis of biomarkers in fluid inclusions. In the second example, a number of specific lipid biomarkers were identified and mapped on the surface of a microbial mat cryosection surface. Post‐measurement optical microscopy correlated the localisation of the lipids with the presence of methanotrophic archaea in the microbial mat.