Probabilistic Analysis of Tsunami Hazards*

Determining the likelihood of a disaster is a key component of any comprehensive hazard assessment. This is particularly true for tsunamis, even though most tsunami hazard assessments have in the past relied on scenario or deterministic type models. We discuss probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) from the standpoint of integrating computational methods with empirical analysis of past tsunami runup. PTHA is derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), with the main difference being that PTHA must account for far-field sources. The computational methods rely on numerical tsunami propagation models rather than empirical attenuation relationships as in PSHA in determining ground motions. Because a number of source parameters affect local tsunami runup height, PTHA can become complex and computationally intensive. Empirical analysis can function in one of two ways, depending on the length and completeness of the tsunami catalog. For site-specific studies where there is sufficient tsunami runup data available, hazard curves can primarily be derived from empirical analysis, with computational methods used to highlight deficiencies in the tsunami catalog. For region-wide analyses and sites where there are little to no tsunami data, a computationally based method such as Monte Carlo simulation is the primary method to establish tsunami hazards. Two case studies that describe how computational and empirical methods can be integrated are presented for Acapulco, Mexico (site-specific) and the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline (region-wide analysis). * The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Invasive crayfish as drivers of fine sediment dynamics in rivers: field and laboratory evidence

Despite increasing recognition of the potential of aquatic biota to act as ‘geomorphic agents’, key knowledge gaps exist in relation to biotic drivers of fine sediment dynamics at microscales and particularly the role of invasive species. This study explores the impacts of invasive signal crayfish on suspended sediment dynamics at the patch scale through laboratory and field study. Three hypotheses are presented and tested: (1) that signal crayfish generate pulses of fine sediment mobilisation through burrowing and movement that are detectable in the flow field; (2) that such pulses may be more frequent during nocturnal periods when signal crayfish are known to be most active; and (3) that cumulatively the pulses would be sufficient to drive an overall increase in turbidity. Laboratory mesocosm experiments were used to explore crayfish impacts on suspended sediment concentrations for two treatments: clay banks and clay bed substrate. For the field study, high frequency near‐bed and mid‐flow turbidity time series from a lowland river with known high densities of signal crayfish were examined. Laboratory data demonstrate the direct influence of signal crayfish on mobilisation of pulses of fine sediment through burrowing into banks and fine bed material, with evidence of enhanced activity levels around the mid‐point of the nocturnal period. Similar patterns of pulsed fine sediment mobilisation identified under field conditions follow a clear nocturnal trend and appear capable of driving an increase in ambient turbidity levels. The findings indicate that signal crayfish have the potential to influence suspended sediment yields, with implications for morphological change, physical habitat quality and the transfer of nutrients and contaminants. This is particularly important given the spread of signal crayfish across Europe and their presence in extremely high densities in many catchments. Further process‐based studies are required to develop a full understanding of impacts across a range of river styles. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A New Assessment Framework for Transience in Hydrogeological Systems

The importance of transience in the management of hydrogeologic systems is often uncertain. We propose a clear framework for determining the likely importance of transient behavior in groundwater systems in a management context. The framework incorporates information about aquifer hydraulics, hydrological drivers, and time scale of management. It is widely recognized that aquifers respond on different timescales to hydrological change and that hydrological drivers themselves, such as climate, are not stationary in time. We propose that in order to assess whether transient behavior is likely to be of practical importance, three factors need to be examined simultaneously: (1) aquifer response time, which can be expressed in terms of the response to a step hydrological change (τ_step) or periodic change (τ_cycle); (2) temporal variation of the dominant hydrological drivers, such as dominant climatic systems in a region; (3) the management timescale and spatial scale of interest. Graphical tools have been developed to examine these factors in conjunction, and assess how important transient behavior is likely to be in response to particular hydrological drivers, and thus which drivers are most likely to induce transience in a specified management timeframe. The method is demonstrated using two case studies; a local system that responds rapidly and is managed on yearly to decadal timeframes and a regional system that exhibits highly delayed responses and was until recently being assessed as a high level nuclear waste repository site. Any practical groundwater resource problem can easily be examined using the proposed framework.     

Graphical design of world map projections

The design of new map projections has up until now required mathematical and cartographic expertise that has limited this activity to a small group of specialists. This article introduces the background mathematics for a software-based method that enables cartographers to easily design new small-scale world map projections. The software is usable even by those without mathematical expertise. A new projection is designed interactively in an iterative process that allows the designer to graphically and numerically assess the graticule, the representation of the continents, and the distortion properties of the new projection. The method has been implemented in Flex Projector, a free and open-source application enabling users to quickly create new map projections and modify existing projections. We also introduce new tools that help evaluate the distortion properties of projections, namely a configurable acceptance index to assess areal and angular distortion, a derived acceptance visualization, and interactive profiles through the distortion space of a projection. To illustrate the proposed method, a new projection, the Cropped Ginzburg VIII projection, is presented.     

Metasomatism and origin of glass in the lithospheric mantle xenoliths beneath Ain Temouchent area (North-West Algeria)

A spinel ± amphibole ± feldspar bearing Iherzolites, a spinel ± amphibole ± feldspar bearing harzburgites, and a spinel ± amphibole ± phlogopite bearing wehrlites are metasomatized peridotitic mantle xenoliths from Ain Temouchent volcanic complex (North-West Algeria). These xenoliths are metamorphic/deformed rocks with a strong planar fabric typical of mantle tectonites. The wehrlites are not the result of a simple model of partial melting. The spinel ± amphibole ± feldspar bearing harzburgites and lherzolites exhibit asymmetric concave-shaped REE patterns. These indicate that an earlier partial melting event was followed by metasomatic processes. The wehrlites have higher REE concentrations and LREE/HREE fractionations, indicating a sequential evolution of wehrlites from previous refractory material with melting as an addition process. This process reflects the interaction of the lithospheric mantle beneath the Ain Temouchent area with basaltic melt. Metasomatism is expressed by the formation of amphibole, phlogopite, and increased abundances of clinopyroxene at the expense of orthopyroxene, in lherzolite and harzburgite. In the Ain Temouchent area, metasomatizing agents are Na-alkali silicates. The similarities observed between the glasses studied in this paper, and the basaltic host rocks of the Ain Temouchent area, may suggest a common mantle source, or with chemical similarities but with relatively different evolutions pathways. The formation of glass in wehrlites from the Ain Temouchent area has an origin formed by the breakdown of amphibole or phlogopite as a result of decompressional melting and production of silica-undersaturated glasses. The glass reacts with essentially orthopyroxene to produce silica-rich glasses. This study has contributed to highlighting a relationship between glass, and the processes that caused the formation of metasomatic phases.     

Monazite as a monitor for melt‐rock interaction during cooling and exhumation

Granulite facies cordierite–garnet–biotite gneisses from the southeastern Reynolds Range, central Australia, contain both orthopyroxene‐bearing and orthopyroxene‐free quartzofeldspathic leucosomes. Mineral reaction microstructures at the interface of gneiss and leucosome observed in outcrop and petrographically, reflect melt‐rock interaction during crystallization. Accessory monazite, susceptible to fluid alteration, dissolution and recrystallization at high temperature, is tested for its applicability to constrain the chemical and P–T–time evolution of melt‐rock reactions during crystallization upon cooling. Bulk rock geochemistry and phase equilibria modelling constrain peak pressure and temperature conditions to 6.5–7.5 kbar and ~850°C, and U–Pb geochronology constrains the timing of monazite crystallization to 1.55 Ga, coeval with the Chewings Orogeny. Modelling predicts the presence of up to 15 vol.% melt at peak metamorphic conditions. Upon cooling below 800°C, melt extraction and in situ crystallization of melt decrease the melt volume to less than 7%, at which time it becomes entrapped and melt pockets induce replacement reactions in the adjacent host rock. Replacement reactions of garnet, orthopyroxene and K‐feldspar liberate Y, REE, Eu and U in addition to Mg, Fe, Al, Si and K. We demonstrate that distinguishing between monazite varieties solely on the basis of U–Pb ages cannot solve the chronological order of events in this study, nor does it tie monazite to the evolution of melt or stability of rock‐forming minerals. Rather, we argue that analyses of various internal monazite textures, their composition and overprinting relations allow us to identify the chronology of events following the metamorphic peak. We infer that retrograde reactions involving garnet, orthopyroxene and K‐feldspar can be attributed to melt‐rock interaction subsequent to partial melting, which is reflected in the development of compositionally distinct monazite textural domains. Internal monazite textures and their composition are consistent with dissolution and precipitation reactions induced by a high‐T melt. Monazite rims enriched in Y, HREE, Eu and U indicate an increased availability of these elements, consistent with the breakdown of orthopyroxene, garnet and K‐feldspar observed petrographically. Our study indicates that compositional and textural analysis of monazite in relation to major rock‐forming minerals can be used to infer the post‐peak chemical evolution of partial melts during high‐ to ultrahigh‐temperature metamorphism.     

The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence

Abstract

The magnitudes of the largest known floods of the River Rhine in Basel since 1268 were assessed using a hydraulic model drawing on a set of pre-instrumental evidence and daily hydrological measurements from 1808. The pre-instrumental evidence, consisting of flood marks and documentary data describing extreme events with the customary reference to specific landmarks, was “calibrated” by comparing it with the instrumental series for the overlapping period between the two categories of evidence (1808–1900). Summer (JJA) floods were particularly frequent in the century between 1651–1750, when precipitation was also high. Severe winter (DJF) floods have not occurred since the late 19th century despite a significant increase in winter precipitation. Six catastrophic events involving a runoff greater than 6000 m ³ s^‐1 are documented prior to 1700. They were initiated by spells of torrential rainfall of up to 72 h (1480 event) and preceded by long periods of substantial precipitation that saturated the soils, and/or by abundant snowmelt. All except two (1999 and 2007) of the 43 identified severe events (SEs: defined as having runoff > 5000 and < 6000 m ³ s ^‐1) occurred prior to 1877. Not a single SE is documented from 1877 to 1998. The intermediate 121-year-long “flood disaster gap” is unique over the period since 1268. The effect of river regulations (1714 for the River Kander; 1877 for the River Aare) and the building of reservoirs in the 20th century upon peak runoff were investigated using a one-dimensional hydraulic flood-routing model. Results show that anthropogenic effects only partially account for the “flood disaster gap” suggesting that variations in climate should also be taken into account in explaining these features.

Citation Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Weingartner, R., Luterbacher, J., Reist, T., & Trösch, J. (2011) The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 733–758.     

Chronology and extent of the Lofoten–Vesterålen sector of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet from 26 to 16 cal. ka BP

The interplay between the onshore and offshore areas during the Last Glacial Maximum and the deglaciation of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet is poorly known. In this paper we present new results on the glacial morphology, stratigraphy and chronology of Andøya, and the glacial morphology of the nearby continental shelf off Lofoten–Vesterålen. The results were used to develop a new model for the timing and extent of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet in the study area during the local last glacial maximum (LLGM) (26 to 16 cal. ka BP). We subdivided the LLGM in this area into five glacial events: before 24, c. 23 to 22.2, 22.2 to c. 18.6, 18 to 17.5, and 16.9–16.3 cal. ka BP. The extent of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet during these various events was reconstructed for the shelf areas off Lofoten, Vesterålen and Troms. Icecaps survived in coastal areas of Vesterålen–Lofoten after the shelf was deglaciated and off Andøya ice flowed landwards from the shelf. During the LLGM the relative sea level was stable until 18.5 cal. ka BP, and thereafter there was a sea‐level drop on Andøya. Thus, relative sea level (i.e. a sea level rise) does not seem to be a driving mechanism for ice‐margin retreat in this area but the fall in sea level may have had some importance for the grounding episodes on the banks during deglaciation. The positions of the grounding zone wedges (GZWs) in the troughs are related to the morphology as they are often located where the troughs narrow.     

Mechanized tunneling induced ground movement and its dependency on the tunnel volume loss and soil properties

This study investigates the ground movements due to mechanized tunnel excavation by applying two-dimensional finite element analyses. To assess the contribution of the compressibility and plasticity of the soil on the ground movements, different constitutive models are employed to describe the soil behavior. The influence of volume loss around the tunnel on the surface volume loss is investigated, and a quadratic correlation between them is proposed. Consequently, the empirical Gaussian distribution curve, which is generally used to determine the tunneling induced settlement trough, is improved by applying the proposed quadratic correlation between surface volume loss and tunnel volume loss. Furthermore, the settlement trough width parameter has been derived by a linear function of tunnel volume loss as well. The proposed equations are validated via a case study of centrifuge tests from the literature. The results show that the proposed modification enhances the empirical solution by having better knowledge on the model parameters. Additionally, tunnel overburden and coefficient of lateral earth pressure at rest (K₀) are taken into account to study their influence on the tunneling induced surface settlements. Finally, global sensitivity analysis is applied to evaluate the relative importance of corresponding model parameters in terms of their influence on the ground movements.     

Mid‐Holocene history of a central European lake: Lake Komořany,Czech Republic

Palaeolimnological reconstruction of the aquatic environment in Lake Komo?any, based on sedimentology, geochemistry, and diatom and macrofossil analyses in the littoral part of the basin, reflects the mid‐Holocene history of the profile from its origin c. 9100 cal. a BP to its final transformation into an alder carr c. 4100 cal. a BP. The existence of the littoral zone can be best explained by increased precipitation during the studied interval. A stable diatom community, diatom‐inferred total phosphorus (50–80 μg L^?1) and pH (~7.6), along with stable concentrations of elements associated with changes in its watershed indicate a long‐lasting, balanced aquatic environment with no major shifts attributable to external factors, including climate change. From c. 4700 cal. BP, there started a transition to terrestrial conditions, caused by either natural infilling processes or decreased precipitation. Alternation of remarkable dry/wet phases was not detected, in contrast to numerous analogous central European and supraregional records. Potential human impact was revealed through increases of Corylus and Populus pollen in the Neolithic. These anthropogenic changes in the lake surroundings had no detectable influence on the lacustrine environment. The gathered data suggest undramatic, balanced mid‐Holocene environmental and climatic settings for this central European locality, in direct contrast to numerous analogous studies from the region emphasizing fluctuations and shifts found in the sediment record.