Assessing the transition from deforestation to forest regrowth with an agent-based model of land cover change for south-central Indiana (USA)

The Midwest and Northeast United States has experienced a net increase in forest cover since the beginning of the 20th century. However, we lack a detailed understanding of the transition to net forest cover increase because this forest regrowth occurred prior to the use of tools like household-level surveys focused on land use decision-making and availability of remote sensing data. Agent-based modeling presents an appealing means to explore what social and biophysical dynamics may have contributed to this forest regrowth process. In this paper we employ an agent-based model to analyze the process of forest regrowth in south-central Indiana from 1939 to 1993. Simulation results are presented for assumptions regarding pre-existing forest age and the stand age at which landowners harvest timber with a goal of understanding the influence of these factors on future trajectories of land cover change. The results demonstrate both the value and the burden of having many time points to evaluate the success of the model. Is the best simulation the one with the smallest net residuals across all time points? Or is the best simulation the one that best reproduces the correct trajectory of land cover change for each time interval? Model simulations that assume a harvesting frequency of 30 years all produced landscapes within 2% of the actual forest cover in 1993, the end point of the study period. However, the trajectories of these simulations did not all mimic the gradual forest regrowth found in our observed data. The model simulation with the smallest residual values across all time points assumed a initial forest age of 5 years in 1939 and a harvesting frequency of 30 years. Ultimately, we cannot definitively conclude that one model simulation is a better representation of reality than another because we have no way of comprehensively validating the model assumptions. However, we can more plausibly conclude that the age of forest regrowth in 1939 and the frequency of timber harvesting by landowners both had an influence on the successive trajectory of land cover change in the study area.     

Large slope deformations detection and monitoring along shores of the Potrerillos dam reservoir,Argentina, based on a small-baseline InSAR approach

The Argentina National Road 7 that crosses the Andes Cordillera within the Mendoza province to connect Santiago de Chile and Buenos Aires is particularly affected by natural hazards requiring risk management. Integrated in a research plan that intends to produce landslide susceptibility maps, we aimed in this study to detect large slope movements by applying a satellite radar interferometric analysis using Envisat data, acquired between 2005 and 2010. We were finally able to identify two large slope deformations in sandstone and clay deposits along gentle shores of the Potrerillos dam reservoir, with cumulated displacements higher than 25 mm in 5 years and towards the reservoir. There is also a body of evidences that these large slope deformations are actually influenced by the seasonal reservoir level variations. This study shows that very detailed information, such as surface displacements and above all water level variation, can be extracted from spaceborne remote sensing techniques; nevertheless, the limitations of InSAR for the present dataset are discussed here. Such analysis can then lead to further field investigations to understand more precisely the destabilising processes acting on these slope deformations.     

Submarine sediment and landform record of a palaeo‐ice stream within the British−Irish Ice Sheet

This paper examines marine geophysical and geological data, and new multibeam bathymetry data to describe the Pleistocene sediment and landform record of a large ice‐stream system that drained ～3% of the entire British?Irish Ice Sheet at its maximum extent. Starting on the outer continental shelf NW of Scotland we describe: the ice‐stream terminus environment and depocentre on the outer shelf and continental slope; sediment architecture and subglacial landforms on the mid‐shelf and in a large marine embayment (the Minch); moraines and grounding line features on the inner shelf and in the fjordic zone. We identify new soft‐bed (sediment) and hard‐bed (bedrock) subglacial landform assemblages in the central and inner parts of the Minch that confirm the spatial distribution, coherence and trajectory of a grounded fast‐flowing ice‐sheet corridor. These include strongly streamlined bedrock forms and megagrooves indicating a high degree of ice‐bed coupling in a zone of flow convergence associated with ice‐stream onset; and a downstream bedform evolution (short drumlins to km‐scale glacial lineations) suggesting an ice‐flow velocity transition associated with a bed substrate and roughness change in the ice‐stream trunk. Chronology is still lacking for the timing of ice‐stream demise; however, the seismic stratigraphy, absence of moraines or grounding‐line features, and presence of well‐preserved subglacial bedforms and iceberg scours, combined with the landward deepening bathymetry, all suggest that frontal retreat in the Minch was probably rapid, via widespread calving, before stabilization in the nearshore zone. Large moraine complexes recording a coherent, apparently long‐lived, ice‐sheet margin position only 5–15 km offshore strongly support this model. Reconstructed ice‐discharge values for the Minch ice stream (12–20 Gt a^?1) are comparable to high mass‐flux ice streams today, underlining it as an excellent palaeo‐analogue for recent rapid change at the margins of the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets.     

Measurements and modelling of the advection of suspended sediment in the swash zone by solitary waves

Novel laboratory experiments and numerical modelling have been performed to study the advection scales of suspended sediment in the swash zone. An experiment was designed specifically to measure only the sediment picked up seaward of the swash zone and during bore collapse. The advection scales and settling of this sediment were measured during the uprush along a rigid sediment-free beach face by a sediment trap located at varying cross-shore positions. Measurements were made using a number of repeated solitary broken waves or bores. Approximately 25% of the pre-suspended sediment picked up by the bores reaches the mid-swash zone (50% of the horizontal run-up distance), indicating the importance of the sediment advection in the lower swash zone. The pre-suspended sediment is sourced from a region seaward of the shoreline (still water line) which has a width of about 20% of the run-up distance. An Eulerian–Lagrangian numerical model is used to model the advection scales of the suspended sediment. The model resolves the hydrodynamics by solving the non-linear shallow water equations in an Eulerian framework and then solves the advection–diffusion equation for turbulence and suspended sediment in a Lagrangian framework. The model provides good estimates of the measured mass and distribution of sediment advected up the beach face. The results suggest that the correct modelling of turbulence generation prior to and during bore collapse and the advection of the turbulent kinetic energy into the lower swash is important in resolving the contribution of pre-suspended sediment to the net sediment transport in the swash zone.