Real-time Seismic Amplitude Measurement (RSAM): a volcano monitoring and prediction tool

Seismicity is one of the most commonly monitored phenomena used to determine the state of a volcano and for the prediction of volcanic eruptions. Although several real-time earthquake-detection and data acquisition systems exist, few continuously measure seismic amplitude in circumstances where individual events are difficult to recognize or where volcanic tremor is prevalent. Analog seismic records provide a quick visual overview of activity; however, continuous rapid quantitative analysis to define the intensity of seismic activity for the purpose of predicing volcanic eruptions is not always possible because of clipping that results from the limited dynamic range of analog recorders. At the Cascades Volcano Observatory, an inexpensive 8-bit analog-to-digital system controlled by a laptop computer is used to provide 1-min average-amplitude information from eight telemetered seismic stations. The absolute voltage level for each station is digitized, averaged, and appended in near real-time to a data file on a multiuser computer system. Raw realtime seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) data or transformed RSAM data are then plotted on a common time base with other available volcano-monitoring information such as tilt. Changes in earthquake activity associated with dome-building episodes, weather, and instrumental difficulties are recognized as distinct patterns in the RSAM data set. RSAM data for domebuilding episodes gradually develop into exponential increases that terminate just before the time of magma extrusion. Mount St. Helens crater earthquakes show up as isolated spikes on amplitude plots for crater seismic stations but seldom for more distant stations. Weather-related noise shows up as low-level, long-term disturbances on all seismic stations, regardless of distance from the volcano. Implemented in mid-1985, the RSAM system has proved valuable in providing up-to-date information on seismic activity for three Mount St. Helens eruptive episodes from 1985 to 1986 (May 1985, May 1986, and October 1986). Tiltmeter data, the only other telemetered geophysical information that was available for the three dome-building episodes, is compared to RSAM data to show that the increase in RSAM data was related to the transport of magma to the surface. Thus, if tiltmeter data is not available, RSAM data can be used to predict future magmatic eruptions at Mount St. Helens. We also recognize the limitations of RSAm data. Two examples of RSAM data associated with phreatic or shallow phreatomagmatic explosions were not preceded by the same increases in RSAM data or changes in tilt associated with the three dome-building eruptions.     

Cataclasis and processes of particle size reduction

The particle size distribution (P.S.D.) of fragmented geological materials is affected by the fragmentation process, initial size distribution, number of fracturing events, energy input, strain, and confining pressure. A summary of literature shows that the fractal dimension (D) of the P.S.D. is increased by the number of fracturing events, energy input, strain, and confining pressure. Cenozoic cataclasis of granite, granodiorites, gneisses and arkose seen in cores from the Cajon Pass drillhole, southern California, produced P.S.D.s with values ofD that varied from 1.88 to 3.08. Each rock type has a characteristic and more limited range ofD. Areas of dilatant texture and modeI fracture-fillings have low average values (2.32 and 2.37) compared to an average value of 2.67 in shear fracture-fillingsD has a good inverse correlation with average particle size. Data from fault rocks in the San Gabriel fault zone, southern California (Anderson et al., 1983) have been reanalyzed to show that values ofD are higher (2.10–5.52) and average particle size is lower than the Cajon Pass samples, but the ranges of values overlap, and the inverse correlation betweenD and average particle size is extended. Microstructural observations combined with these results suggest that three processes contributed to particle size reduction during cataclasis. The first process of feldspar alteration, which leads to low values ofD, has not been previously recognized. The second process is probably constrained comminution (Sammis et al., 1987), since the averageD in shear fracture-fillings is close to the value of 2.58 predicted by this theory. A further stage of particle size reduction is demonstrated by an increase ofD with cataclasis. This third process is selective fracture of larger particles, which may also operate during localization and the cataclastic flow-to-faulting transition as observed in experiments. A transition from constrained comminution to selective fracture of large particles, and increasingD values with cataclastic evolution and grain size reduction, may be general features of experimental and natural cataclasis.     

Fluid and silicate glass inclusions in ultramafic and mafic xenoliths from Hierro,Canary Islands: implications for mantle metasomatism

Fluid and solid inclusions have been studied in selected samples from a series of spinel-bearing Crdiopside-and Al-augite-series ultramafic (harzburgites, lherzolites, and olivine-clinopyroxene-rich rocks), and gabbroic xenoliths from Hierro, Canary Islands. In these samples several generations of fluid inclusions and ultramafic-and mafic-glass inclusions may be texturally related to different stages of crystal growth. The fluid inclusions consist of pure, or almost pure, CO₂. The solid inclusions in the ultramafic xenoliths comprise early inclusions of devitrified ultramafic glass, sulphide inclusions, as well as polyphase inclusions (spinel+clinopyroxene±glass±other silicates) believed to have formed from trapped basaltic melts. Vitreous basaltic glass±CO₂±sulphide±silicates are common as secondary inclusions in the ultramafic xenoliths, and as primary inclusions in the gabbroic xenoliths. Microthermometry gives minimum trapping temperatures of 1110° C for the early ultramafic-and mafic-glass inclusions, and a maximum of 1260–1280° C for late inclusions of host basaltic glass. In most samples the CO₂ inclusions show a wide range in homogenization temperatures (-40 to +31° C) as a result of decrepitation during ascent. The lowest homogenization temperatures of about-40° C, recorded in some of the smallest CO₂ inclusions, indicate a minimum depth of origin of 35 km (12 kbar) for both the Cr-diopside-and Al-augite-series xenoliths. The gabbroic xenoliths originate from a former magma chamber at a depth of 6–12 km.Contribution no. 100 of the Norwegian programme of the International Lithosphere Project     

Book reviews

The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Using wavelet tools to analyse seasonal variations from InSAR time-series data: a case study of the Huangtupo landslide

Synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) has proven to be a powerful tool for monitoring landslide movements with a wide spatial and temporal coverage. Interpreting landslide displacement time-series derived from InSAR techniques is a major challenge for understanding relationships between triggering factors and slope displacements. In this study, we propose the use of various wavelet tools, namely, continuous wavelet transform (CWT), cross wavelet transform (XWT) and wavelet coherence (WTC) for interpreting InSAR time-series information for a landslide. CWT enables time-series records to be analysed in time-frequency space, with the aim of identifying localized intermittent periodicities. Similarly, XWT and WTC help identify the common power and relative phase between two time-series records in time-frequency space, respectively. Statistically significant coherence and confidence levels against red noise (also known as brown noise or random walk noise) can be calculated. Taking the Huangtupo landslide (China) as an example, we demonstrate the capabilities of these tools for interpreting InSAR time-series information. The results show the Huangtupo slope is affected by an annual displacement periodicity controlled by rainfall and reservoir water level. Reservoir water level, which is completely regulated by the dam activity, is mainly in ‘anti-phase’ with natural rainfall, due to flood control in the Three Gorges Project. The seasonal displacements of the Huangtupo landslide is found to be ‘in-phase’ with respect to reservoir water level and the rainfall towards the front edge of the slope and to rainfall at the higher rear of the slope away from the reservoir.     

Real-time genetic spatial optimization to improve forest fire spread forecasting in high-performance computing environments

Abstract

Forest fires are a kind of natural hazard with a high number of occurrences in southern European countries. To avoid major damages and to improve forest fire management, one can use forest fire spread simulators to predict fire behavior. When providing forest fire predictions, there are two main considerations: accuracy and computation time. In the context of natural hazards simulation, it is well known that part of the final forecast error comes from uncertainty in the input data. These data typically consist of a set of GIS files, which should be appropriately conflated. For this reason, several input data calibration methods have been developed by the scientific community. In this work, the Two-Stage calibration methodology, which has been shown to provide good results, is used. This calibration strategy is computationally intensive and time-consuming because it uses a Genetic Algorithm as a solution. Taking into account the aspect of urgency in forest fire spread prediction, it is necessary to maintain a balance between accuracy and the time needed to calibrate the input parameters. In order to take advantage of this technique, one must deal with the problem that some of the obtained solutions are impractical, since they involve simulation times that are too long, preventing the prediction system from being deployed at an operational level. A new method which finds the minimum resolution reduction for such long simulations, keeping accuracy loss to a known interval, is proposed. The proposed improvement is based on a time-aware core allocation policy that enables real-time forest fire spread forecasting. The final prediction system is a cyberinfrastructure, which enables forest fire spread prediction at real time.     

Tuna longline catch rates in the Indian Ocean: Did industrial fishing result in a 90% rapid decline in the abundance of large predatory species?

Myers and Worm claim that their analyses of catch rates following the commencement of industrial longline fishing for tuna and billfishes show that these longline fisheries rapidly depleted the abundance of these large oceanic predators by 90% (Myers RA, Worm B. Rapid worldwide depletion of predatory fish communities. Nature 2003;423:280–3). Their analyses were published in a high profile science journal along with an accompanying press release, which then attracted substantial international media focus and public attention. This media focus in turn has been used as a base for advocating major marine policy changes for pelagic tuna fisheries (e.g. a minimum of a 50% reduction in catches and establishment of extensive marine reserves). However, among numerous scientific experts involved in tuna and pelagic fishery research substantial concerns exist that Myers and Worm's analyses provide a misleading picture of the status of large predatory pelagic fishes. These concerns are reviewed using data from the Indian Ocean for illustrative purposes and indicate that the initial longline catches were not responsible for a rapid depletion of the main tuna and billfish stocks nor were they threatening the overall sustainability of these stocks. However, the status of a number of theses stocks is of concern as a result of large increases in catches in more recent years. The debate sparked by Myers and Worm's paper should not distract from the critical problem of developing and implementing effective international management policies. In addition to implications for fishery management, the publication, peer-review, scientific response and publicity process associated with the publication of Myers and Worm's paper are discussed. Concerns are raised that if these become standard practices for articles in high profile science journals that this would undermine the trust placed in such journal to provide an accurate and well-balanced representation of the most important new scientific findings and in their role to inform policy decisions based on these findings.     

The impact of oestrogenic and androgenic contamination on marine organisms in the United Kingdom--summary of the EDMAR programme. Endocrine Disruption in the Marine Environment

This paper summarises results of the EDMAR programme which is investigating oestrogenic and androgenic endocrine disruption in UK coastal waters. Most of the data concern fish. Four species (flounder, viviparous blenny and two sand gobies) are experiencing feminisation in industrialised estuaries. In males this includes vitellogenin (VTG) synthesis, ovotestis induction and/or feminised sexual characteristics. Although reproductive success may be impaired in some cases, implications for fish populations are still unclear. Suspected causative contaminants include natural oestrogenic substances and synthetic oestrogen mimics. The majority of the oestrogenic activity is adsorbed to sediments, and routes of exposure may include benthic food chain transfer. Some natural androgenic substances are also being discharged to estuaries, but their activity appears low.     

Meiofauna as descriptor of tourism-induced changes at sandy beaches

Tourism has long been considered as a 'clean industry' with almost no negative effects on the environment. This study demonstrated, in two different coastal systems (Mediterranean and Baltic), that tourism related activities are particularly affecting the sandy beach meio- and nematofauna in the upper beach zone, the specific ecotone in which many meiofauna species from both the marine and the terrestrial environment congregate. Tourist upper beaches are characterized by a lower % total organic matter (%TOM), lower densities, lower diversities (absence of Insecta, Harpacticoida, Oligochaeta, terrestrial nematodes and marine Ironidae nematodes) and higher community stress compared to nearby non-tourist locations. The %TOM was found to be the single most important factor for the observed differences in meiofauna assemblage structure at tourist versus non-tourist beaches in both the Mediterranean and the Baltic region. The free-living nematode assemblages from tourist upper zones depart significantly from expectations based on random selections from the regional nematode species pool. Furthermore upper zone assemblages are characterised by a low species diversity consisting of taxonomically closely related nematode species with r-strategist features. Generally, faunal differences between tourist and non-tourist beaches are decreasing towards the lower beach zones.