What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

     

Using logistic regression to merge mineral resource databases

The purpose of this project was to develop and test a methodology for determining the likelihood that mineral resource location records from two nationwide mineral resource information databases represent the same site. The long-term goal is to create a comprehensive database by merging the Mineral Resource Data System (MRDS) of the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Mineral Availability System/Mineral Industry Location System (MAS/MILS) of the U.S. Bureau of Mines (now part of the Geological Survey). Part of that process involves linking records for the same site from each database. Match probabilities were estimated using a logistic regression of mineral resource location attributes, derived from known matched (cross-referenced) and known unmatched randomly sampled mineral site pairs from within the conterminous United States (n=10,000). Model accuracy was assessed using a randomly sampled test dataset, not used in logistic model development (n=4,000). Probability distributions were similar between the development and test datasets. The overall agreement beyond chance was good for the test data set using the kappa statistic. Classification accuracy was 89.6% for known matched site pairs and 84.0% for known unmatched site pairs based on a probability threshold of 0.50 for a match. Distributions of attributes were similar between the development and test datasets. This classification method is a viable approach for estimating match probabilities between database records.     

Mercury emission from terrestrial background surfaces in the eastern USA. II: Air/surface exchange of mercury within forests from South Carolina to New England

Mercury air/surface exchange was measured over litter-covered soils with low Hg concentrations within various types of forests along the eastern seaboard of the USA. The fieldwork was conducted at six forested sites in state parks in South Carolina, North Carolina, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York and Maine from mid-May to early June 2005. The study showed that the Hg air/surface exchange was consistently very low and similar (overall daytime mean flux = 0.2 ± 0.9 ng m⁻² h⁻¹, n = 310, for all six sites monitored) with the various forest types. These flux values are comparable with those found in a year-long study in Tennessee (yearly daytime mean = 0.4 ± 0.5 ng m⁻² h⁻¹), but lower than many previous flux results reported for background soils. The Hg fluxes at all sites oscillated around zero, with many episodes of deposition (negative fluxes) occurring in both daytime and nighttime. While there were particular days showing significant correlations among the Hg air/surface exchange and certain environmental parameters, perhaps because of the low fluxes encountered, few significant correlations were found for any particular day of sampling between the Hg flux and environmental parameters such as solar radiation, soil temperature, air temperature (little variability seen), relative humidity, and ambient air Hg concentrations. Factors driving the Hg exchange as previously found for enriched soils may not hold for these background litter-covered forest soils. The results suggest that spatial variations of the Hg air/surface exchange were small among these different forest types for this particular time of year.     

Extension of atmospheric dust loading to high altitudes during the 2001 Mars dust storm: MGS TES limb observations

Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) visible (solarband bolometer) and thermal infrared (IR) spectral limb observations from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) support quantitative profile retrievals for dust opacity and particle sizes during the 2001 global dust event on Mars. The current analysis considers the behavior of dust lifted to altitudes above 30 km during the course of this storm; in terms of dust vertical mixing, particle sizes, and global distribution. TES global maps of visible (solarband) limb brightness at 60 km altitude indicate a global-scale, seasonally evolving (over 190-240° solar longitudes, L_S) longitudinal corridor of vertically extended dust loading (which may be associated with a retrograde propagating, wavenumber 1 Rossby wave). Spherical radiative transfer analysis of selected limb profiles for TES visible and thermal IR radiances provide quantitative vertical profiles of dust opacity, indicating regional conditions of altitude-increasing dust mixing ratios. Observed infrared spectral dependences and visible-to-infrared opacity ratios of dust scattering over 30-60 km altitudes indicate particle sizes characteristic of lower altitudes (cross-section weighted effective radius, ), during conditions of significant dust transport to these altitudes. Conditions of reduced dust loading at 30-60 km altitudes present smaller dust particle sizes . These observations suggest rapid meridional transport at 30-80 km altitudes, with substantial longitudinal variation, of dust lifted to these altitudes over southern hemisphere atmospheric regions characterized by extraordinary (m/s) vertical advection velocities. By L_S=230° dust loading above 50 km altitudes decreased markedly at southern latitudes, with a high altitude (60-80 km) haze of fine (likely) water ice particles appearing over 10°S-40°N latitudes.     

Ultraviolet dust aerosol properties as observed by MARCI

Observations by the Mars Color Imager (MARCI) on board the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) in two ultraviolet (UV, Bands 6 and 7; 258 nm, and 320 nm, respectively) and one visible (Band 1, 436 nm) channels of the 2007 planet encircling dust storm are combined with those made by the two Mars Exploration Rovers (MERs) to better characterize the single scattering albedo (ω₀) of martian dust aerosols. Exploiting the low contrast of the surface in the UV (and blue) as well as the reduced importance of surface reflectance under very dusty conditions, we utilize the sampling of photometric angles by the MARCI cross-track geometry to synthesize an analog of the classical Emergence Phase Function (EPF). This so-called “pseudo-EPF”, used in conjunction with the “ground-truth” measurements provided by the MERs, is able to effectively isolate the effects of the dust ω₀. The motivation for this approach is the elimination of a significant portion of the type of uncertainty involved in many previous radiative transfer analyses. Furthermore, we produce a self-consistent set of complex refractive indices (m=n+ik) through our use of an explicit microphysical representation of the aerosol scattering properties. Because of uncertainty in the exact size of the dust particles during the epoch of the observations, we consider two effective particle radii (r_eff) to cover the range anticipated from the literature: 1.6 and 1.8 μm. The resulting set of model-data comparisons, ω₀, and m are presented along with an assessment of potential sources of error and uncertainty. Analysis of the Band 1 results is limited to ω₀ as a “proof-of-concept” for our approach through a comparison to contemporaneous CRISM EPF results at 440 nm. The derived ω₀ are: assuming , and 0.765, for Bands 6, 7, and 1, respectively; for , for the same band order. For either r_eff case, the total estimated error is 0.022, 0.019, and 0.010, again for Bands 6, 7, and 1. We briefly discuss our retrievals, including the asymmetry parameter (g) associated with our model phase functions, within the context of previous efforts, with an emphasis on the improved precision of our results compared to those in the literature. We also suggest several applications of our results, including an extension of the dust climatological record using MARCI Band 7 pseudo-EPFs outside of 2007 global dust event. Initial work on this particular application using a sample of 135 pseudo-EPFs near the MERs suggests that optical depth retrievals with a precision in the range 0.2-0.4 may be possible under moderate loading conditions (i.e., τ < 1.5).     

Observations of metallic species in Mercury’s exosphere

From observations of the metallic species sodium (Na), potassium (K), and magnesium (Mg) in Mercury’s exosphere, we derive implications for source and loss processes. All metallic species observed exhibit a distribution and/or line width characteristic of high to extreme temperature - tens of thousands of degrees K. The temperatures of refractory species, including magnesium and calcium, indicate that the source process for the atoms observed in the tail and near-planet exosphere are consistent with ion sputtering and/or impact vaporization of a molecule with subsequent dissociation into the atomic form. The extended Mg tail is consistent with a surface abundance of 5-8% Mg by number, if 30% of impact-vaporized Mg remains as MgO and half of the impact vapor condenses. Globally, ion sputtering is not a major source of Mg, but locally the sputtered source can be larger than the impact vapor source. We conclude that the Na and K in Mercury’s exosphere can be derived from a regolith composition similar to that of Luna 16 soil (or Apollo 17 orange glass), in which the abundance by number is 0.0027 (0.0028) for Na and 0.0006 (0.0045) for K.     

Monte Carlo modeling of sodium in Mercury’s exosphere during the first two MESSENGER flybys

We present a Monte Carlo model of the distribution of neutral sodium in Mercury’s exosphere and tail using data from the Mercury Atmospheric and Surface Composition Spectrometer (MASCS) on the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft during the first two flybys of the planet in January and September 2008. We show that the dominant source mechanism for ejecting sodium from the surface is photon-stimulated desorption (PSD) and that the desorption rate is limited by the diffusion rate of sodium from the interior of grains in the regolith to the topmost few monolayers where PSD is effective. In the absence of ion precipitation, we find that the sodium source rate is limited to ∼10⁶-10⁷ cm⁻² s⁻¹, depending on the sticking efficiency of exospheric sodium that returns to the surface. The diffusion rate must be at least a factor of 5 higher in regions of ion precipitation to explain the MASCS observations during the second MESSENGER flyby. We estimate that impact vaporization of micrometeoroids may provide up to 15% of the total sodium source rate in the regions observed. Although sputtering by precipitating ions was found not to be a significant source of sodium during the MESSENGER flybys, ion precipitation is responsible for increasing the source rate at high latitudes through ion-enhanced diffusion.