A multi-hazard regional level impact assessment for Europe combining indicators of climatic and non-climatic change

To better prioritise adaptation strategies to a changing climate that are currently being developed, there is a need for quantitative regional level assessments that are systematic and comparable across multiple weather hazards. This study presents an indicator-based impact assessment framework at NUTS-2 level for the European Union that quantifies potential regional changes in weather-related hazards: heat stress in relation to human health, river flood risk, and forest fire risk. This is done by comparing the current (baseline) situation with two future time periods, 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. The indicator values for the baseline period are validated against observed impact data. For each hazard, the method integrates outcomes of a set of coherent high-resolution regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project based on the SRES A1B emission scenario, with current and projected non-climatic drivers of risk, such as land use and socio-economic change. An index of regional adaptive capacity has been developed and compared with overall hazard impact in order to identify the potentially most vulnerable regions in Europe. The results show strongest increases in impacts for heat stress, followed by forest fire risk, while for flood risk the sign and magnitude of change vary across regions. A major difference with previous studies is that heat stress risk could increase most in central Europe, which is due to the ageing population there. An overall assessment combining the three hazards shows a clear trend towards increasing impact from climaterelated natural hazards for most parts of Europe, but hotspot regions are found in eastern and southern Europe due to their low adaptive capacities. This spatially explicit assessment can serve as a basis for discussing climate adaptation mainstreaming, and priorities for regional development in the EU.     

Universal time from VLBI single-baseline observations during CONT08

The IVS Intensive sessions are single-baseline, 1-h VLBI sessions carried out everyday in order to determine Universal Time (UT1). We investigate different possibilities to improve the results of such sessions. We do this investigation by extracting 2-h single-baseline sessions from the CONT08 data set. These are analysed like normal Intensives, and the results are compared to the results of the analysis of the full CONT08 data set. We find that tropospheric asymmetry is the major error source for the single-baseline sessions. It is possible to improve the accuracy of the estimated UT1 either by using accurate a priori tropospheric gradients or by estimating gradients in the data analysis.     

Benchmarking observational uncertainties for hydrology: rainfall,river discharge and water quality

This review and commentary sets out the need for authoritative and concise information on the expected error distributions and magnitudes in observational data. We discuss the necessary components of a benchmark of dominant data uncertainties and the recent developments in hydrology which increase the need for such guidance. We initiate the creation of a catalogue of accessible information on characteristics of data uncertainty for the key hydrological variables of rainfall, river discharge and water quality (suspended solids, phosphorus and nitrogen). This includes demonstration of how uncertainties can be quantified, summarizing current knowledge and the standard quantitative results available. In particular, synthesis of results from multiple studies allows conclusions to be drawn on factors which control the magnitude of data uncertainty and hence improves provision of prior guidance on those uncertainties. Rainfall uncertainties were found to be driven by spatial scale, whereas river discharge uncertainty was dominated by flow condition and gauging method. Water quality variables presented a more complex picture with many component errors. For all variables, it was easy to find examples where relative error magnitudes exceeded 40%. We consider how data uncertainties impact on the interpretation of catchment dynamics, model regionalization and model evaluation. In closing the review, we make recommendations for future research priorities in quantifying data uncertainty and highlight the need for an improved ‘culture of engagement’ with observational uncertainties. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chemical evolution of thermal waters and changes in the hydrothermal system of Papandayan volcano (West Java,Indonesia) after the November 2002 eruption

Papandayan is a stratovolcano situated in West Java, Indonesia. Since the last magmatic eruption in 1772, only few hydrothermal explosions have occurred. An explosive eruption occurred in November 2002 and ejected ash and altered rocks. The altered rocks show that an advanced argillic alteration took place in the hydrothermal system by interaction between acid fluids and rocks. Four zones of alteration have been defined and are limited in extension and shape along faults or across permeable structures at different levels beneath the active crater of the volcano.     

Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example

ABSTRACT

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.     

Comparison of environmental tracers including organic micropollutants as groundwater exfiltration indicators into a small river of a karstic catchment

Understanding groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interactions is vital for water management in karstic catchments due to its impact on water quality. The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare the applicability of seven environmental tracers to quantify and localize groundwater exfiltration into a small, human-impacted karstic river system. Tracers were selected based on their emission source to the surface water either as (a) dissolved, predominantly geogenic compounds (radon-222, sulphate and electrical conductivity) or (b) anthropogenic compounds (predominantly) originating from wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents (carbamazepine, tramadol, sodium, chloride). Two contrasting sampling approaches were compared (a) assuming steady-state flow conditions and (b) considering the travel time of the water parcels (Lagrangian sampling) through the catchment to account for diurnal changes in inflow from the WWTP. Spatial variability of the concentrations of all tracers indicated sections of preferential groundwater inflow. Lagrangian sampling techniques seem highly relevant for capturing dynamic concentration patterns of WWTP-derived compounds. Quantification of GW inflow with the finite element model FINIFLUX, based on observed in-stream Rn activities led to plausible fluxes along the investigated river reaches (0.265 m³ s⁻¹), while observations of other natural or anthropogenic environmental tracers produced less plausible water fluxes. Important point sources of groundwater exfiltration can be ascribed to locations where the river crosses geological fault lines. This indicates that commonly applied concepts describing groundwater–surface water interactions assuming diffuse flow in porous media are difficult to transfer to karstic river systems whereas concepts from fractured aquifers may be more applicable. In general, this study helps selecting the best suited hydrological tracer for GW exfiltration and leads to a better understanding of processes controlling groundwater inflow into karstic river systems.     

Insights into agricultural influences and weathering processes from major ion patterns

Karst areas and their catchments pose a great challenge for protection because fast conduit flow results in low natural attenuation of anthropogenic contaminants. Studies of the hydrochemistry of karst sources and river solutes are an important tool for securing and managing water resources. A study of the geochemical downriver evolution of the Wiesent River and its tributaries, located in a typical karst terrain, revealed unexpected downstream decreases of nitrate with maximum mean values of 30 mg/L at the source to minimum values of 18 mg/L near the river mouth. This trend persisted over the length of the river even though increased agricultural activities are evident in the downstream section of the catchment. This pattern is caused by fertilizer inputs via diffusive and fast conduits flow from karst lithology in the upstream area that may have reached the river's source even from beyond the hydrological catchment boundaries. Further downstream, these influences became diluted by tributary inputs that drain subcatchments dominated by claystone and sandstone lithologies that increased potassium and sulphate concentrations. Our findings indicate that bedrock geology remains the dominant control on the major ion chemistry of the Wiesent River and that agricultural influences are strongest near the headwaters despite increased land use further downstream, due to long‐term storage and accumulation in karst aquifers. This feature may not be unique to the Wiesent River system, as carbonates cover significant portions of the Earth's surface and subsequent work in other river systems could establish whether such patterns are ubiquitous worldwide.     

A new method for the determination of the specific kinetic energy (SKE) released to pyroclastic particles at magmatic fragmentation: theory and first experimental results

Brittle magmatic fragmentation plays a crucial role in explosive eruptions. It represents the starting point of hazardous explosive events that can affect large areas surrounding erupting volcanoes. Knowing the initial energy released during this fragmentation process is fundamental for the understanding of the subsequent dynamics of the eruptive gas-particle mixture and consequently for the forecasting of the erupting column’s behavior. The specific kinetic energy (SKE) of the particles quantifies the initial velocity shortly after the fragmentation and is therefore a necessary variable to model the gas-particle conduit flow and eruptive column regime. In this paper, we present a new method for its determination based on fragmentation experiments and identification of the timings of energy release. The results obtained on compositions representative for basaltic and phonolitic melts show a direct dependence on magma material properties: poorly vesiculated basaltic melts from Stromboli show the highest SKE values ranging from 7.3 to 11.8 kJ/kg, while experiments with highly vesiculated samples from Stromboli and Vesuvius result in lower SKE values (3.1 to 3.8 kJ/kg). The described methodology presents a useful tool for quantitative estimation of the kinetic energy release of magmatic fragmentation processes, which can contribute to the improvement of hazard assessment.