基于土壤湿度和年际增量方法的中国夏季气温预测试验

本文利用中国160站月平均气温资料和欧洲中心ERA-Interim逐月再分析表层土壤湿度资料,通过相关分析选取欧亚大陆9个关键区的土壤湿度年际增量作为预测因子,采用变形的典型相关分析(BP-CCA)结合集合典型相关分析(ECC)的方法建立集合预测模型,对我国东部夏季气温年际增量进行预测,进而预测夏季气温。其中,1980—2004年的资料用于历史拟合试验,而2005—2014年的资料用于独立样本预测试验。首先利用BP-CCA方法对9个因子分别建立单因子预测模型,然后采用ECC方法对9个预测因子按照不同的组合方式建立集合预测模型,并且分析预测技巧。结果表明,不同预测因子的组合对我国夏季气温的预测能力不同:勒拿河下游地区、中国黄河以南地区、叶尼塞河下游地区、西西伯利亚平原地区以及印度半岛西北部地区的土壤湿度对华北夏季气温预测效果较好;中国黄河以南地区、叶尼塞河下游地区、印度半岛西北部地区、贝加尔湖东北地区以及贝加尔湖以西地区的土壤湿度对江淮夏季气温有较高预测技巧。所建立的两组集合预测模型均显示了较好的实际预测能力:华北气温预测模型预测气温距平的同号率为8/10,平均均方根误差为3.4%;江淮气温预测模型预测气温距平的同号率为7/10,平均均方根误差为2.7%。并且两组模型预测出的华北和江淮气温的预测评分(PS)均超过80分,而国际上通用的距平相关系数(ACC)均在0.3以上。这说明土壤湿度因子中包含对我国夏季气温有用的预测信号,可以考虑将土壤湿度应用于夏季气温预测业务中。     

2014年夏季南海北部浮游植物群落结构

2014年8月20日-9月6日对南海北部(18°~22°N,114°~116°E)的11个站位进行了浮游植物群落结构的调查,其中2个站位为时间连续站。共鉴定出浮游植物4门68属229种(包括变种、变型及未定种),其中硅藻门43属147种,甲藻门20属75种。浮游植物平均细胞丰度为16.318×103 cells/L,硅藻的平均细胞丰度为14.653×103 cells/L,占总丰度的89.80%,硅藻的分布决定了浮游植物的分布。近岸冲淡水含有丰富的营养盐,因此近岸海域的细胞丰度高于大洋海域,垂直分布表现出先增加后降低的趋势。本次调查的优势种为铁氏束毛藻(Trichodesmium thiebautii)、中肋骨条藻(Skeletonema costatum)、拟脆杆藻(Fragilariopsis sp.)、短孢角毛藻(Chaetoceros brevis)、菱形海线藻(Thalassionema nitzschioides)、柔弱伪菱形藻(Pseudo-nitzschia delicatissima)、尖刺伪菱形藻(Pseudo-nitzschia pungens)、扁面角毛藻(Chaetoceros compressus)、洛氏角毛藻(Chaetoceros lorenzianus)以及海洋角毛藻(Chaetoceros pelagicus),各优势种的分布趋势相似,呈现出近岸高于外海的趋势。Shannon-Weiner多样性指数与Pielou均匀度指数的平均值分别为2.37和0.56。浮游植物昼夜垂直变化明显。典范对应分析结果显示浮游植物空间分布主要受总氮盐、硅酸盐、微型浮游动物与盐度的影响。根据细胞丰度进行的站位的聚类分析显示浮游植物群落明显可划分为近岸群聚与大洋群聚。     

Experiments on exactly computing non-linear energy transfer rate in MASNUM-WAM

The Webb-Resio-Tracy (WRT) method for exact computation of the non-linear energy transfer rate was implemented in MASNUM-WAM, which is a third-generation wave model solving the discrete spectral balance equation. In this paper, we describe the transformation of the spectral space in the original WRT method. Four numerical procedures were developed in which the acceleration techniques in the original WRT method, such as geometric scaling, pre-calculating, and grid-searching, are all reorganized. A series of numerical experiments including two simulations based on real data were performed. The availability of such implementation in both serial and parallel versions of the wave model was proved, and a comparison of computation times showed that some of the developed procedures provided good efficacy. With exact computation of non-linear energy transfer, MASNUM-WAM now can be used to perform numerical experiments for research purposes, which augurs well for further developments of the model.     

Barotropic processes associated with the development of the Mei-yu precipitation system

The barotropic processes associated with the development of a precipitation system are investigated through analysis of cloud-resolving model simulations of Mei-yu torrential rainfall events over eastern China in mid-June 2011. During the model integration period, there were three major heavy rainfall events: 9–12, 13–16 and 16–20 June. The kinetic energy is converted from perturbation to mean circulations in the first and second period, whereas it is converted from mean to perturbation circulations in the third period. Further analysis shows that kinetic energy conversion is determined by vertical transport of zonal momentum. Thus, the prognostic equation of vertical transport of zonal momentum is derived, in which its tendency is associated with dynamic, pressure gradient and buoyancy processes. The kinetic energy conversion from perturbation to mean circulations in the first period is mainly associated with the dynamic processes. The kinetic energy conversion from mean to perturbation circulations in the third period is generally related to the pressure gradient processes.     

基于改进TEQC的区域CORS站点质量检核

TEQC能对GNSS数据进行质量检核,编辑并改善GNSS数据质量,但该软件运行于DOS环境,成果不能图形可视化,存在人机交互性差等不足。文中通过VisualC#编程对TEQC和QCVIEW进行可视化封装,实现基于WINDOWS界面的质量检核与可视化表达,选用5个质量评价指标对CORS站点数据进行质量检核。最后结合实例验证改进软件的可行性,并通过BERNESE软件分别求单天解验证选用的5个质量指标能够对观测数据作准确的质量评估。     

An extended Greenwood‐Williamson modelbased normal interaction law for discrete element modelling of spherical particles with surface roughness

The current work aims to develop an improved random normal interaction law based on an extended Greenwood‐Williamson (GW) model for spherical particles with surface roughness in the discrete element modelling of particle systems. The extended GW model overcomes some theoretical defects of the classic GW model when incorporated into the discrete element framework. Based on 2 nondimensional forms in which only 2 surface roughness parameters are involved, an empirical formula of the improved interaction law is derived by the curve‐fitting technique. The resulting interaction law is incorporated into discrete element modelling to investigate the mechanical response of particle systems with different surface roughness. Numerical simulations are performed to model 1‐dimensional and 3‐dimensional compression tests to explore the macro and micro characteristics of granular particles with surface roughness. The results show that surface roughness makes the initial packing of a particle assembly looser and has a greater influence on looser packed samples as expected, but an assembly with moderate roughness may exhibit a higher strength. The limitations of the current development are also highlighted.     

大气气溶胶光学厚度信息在林火检测中的应用研究

由于现有MODIS火点检测算法对不同区域和不同季节的适应能力有限,因此需要关注复杂地表条件下对森林火灾伴生烟羽的识别问题,以提高明火点和低温焖烧火点的检测精度。本文基于烟羽扩散对大气气溶胶分布产生的影响,通过提取火灾区域的大气气溶胶光学厚度信息来描述区域内潜在火点的烟羽扩散特征,作为判识火点的辅助手段。利用MODIS资料,借助暗像元法通过6S模式反演了多个火点及周围区域的气溶胶光学厚度(AOD),并对明火点和低温火点在不同扩散范围和不同方位角条件下AOD的累积效应对烟羽的敏感性进行实验。结果表明,利用暗像元法反演出的AOD能明显地表征火灾伴生烟羽的分布特征,指示烟羽扩散方向及大致扩散范围。当以火点为中心,取32位方位角,扩散半径为10 km时,下风向与上风向的AOD累积效应差异最为显著,其累积值之比均10,对烟羽检测最为敏感。由此建立烟羽识别条件,为判识火点提供辅助依据,有效规避了MODIS火点检测算法对离散火点,特别是低温火点的漏判。     

FRC框架结构的损伤程度控制及性能评估

为研究纤维增强混凝土（FRC）框架结构体系预期损伤部位的损伤程度控制和性能评估方法,采用ABAQUS有限元软件对该框架结构模型进行动力时程分析。针对该结构体系,研究其各种性能水准极限状态的定性描述和量化方法,并进行结构抗震性能评估。研究结果显示,预期损伤部位采用FRC材料,可以减小RC框架结构的层间残余侧移角、柱端截面最大转角和柱截面最大残余转角,可以控制整体结构和构件的损伤程度。给出FRC框架结构在不同性能水准下分别以柱截面转角、层间侧移角和层间残余侧移角为性能指标的限值。综合考虑FRC材料的特性和仿真结果的分析,建议选用层间残余侧移角进行性能评估更为合理。考虑8倍板厚翼缘宽度,柱梁抗弯承载力比达到1.2,FRC框架结构在8度设防烈度对应的地震作用下可达到性能等级D。