Combining borehole temperature and meteorologic data to constrain past climate change

Geothermal observations from a suite of boreholes in western Utah, USA, combined with meteorologic data at nearby weather stations are used to test the hypothesis that temperatures in the earths subsurface contain an accurate record of recent climate change. The change in air temperature over the last hundred years successfully predicts detailed subsurface temperature profiles to better than ±0.05°C, indicating that ground temperatures tract air temperatures over long periods and that climate change signals are conducted into, and recorded in, the solid earth by the process of heat conduction. We combine borehole temperature data with meteorologic data from the nearest weather station to determine the time averaged difference between surface ground temperature and surface air temperature for borehole-weather station pairs and to infer the long term mean air temperature prior to the observational record. For our western Utah sites the preobservational mean temperature is close to the average surface air temperature for this century suggesting that up to 0.5°C of warming deduced from the last 100 years of weather station data may be attributed to recovery from a cool period at the turn of the century.     

Spectrophotometry of Saturn and its rings from 60 to 180 microns

We observed Saturn at far-infrared and submillimeter wavelengths during the Earth's March 1980 passage through the plane of Saturn's rings. Comparison with earlier spectroscopic observations by D. B. Ward [Icarus32, 437–442 (1977)], obtained at a time when the tilt angle of the rings was 21.8°, permits separation of the disk and ring contributions to the flux observed in this wavelength range. We present two main results: (1) The observed emission of the disk between 60 and 180 μm corresponds to a brightness temperature of 104 ± 2°K; (2) the brightness temperature of the rings drops approximately 20°K between 60 and 80 μm. Our data, in conjunction with the data obtained by other observers between 1 μm and 1 mm, permit us to derive an improved estimate for the total Saturnian surface brightness of (4.84 ± 0.32) × 10^?4W cm^?2 corresponding to an effective temperature of 96.1 ± 1.6°K. The ratio of radiated to incident power, P_R/P_I, is (1.46 ± 0.08)/(1 - A), where A is the Bond albedo. For A = 0.337 ± 0.029, P_R/P_I = 2.20 ± 0.15 and Saturn's intrinsic luminosity is L_S = (2.9 ± 0.5) × 10^?10L_⊙.     

Spline-surface interpolation, spatial filtering, and trend surfaces for geological mapped variables

Spline surfaces are interpolated for top of the Dundee Limestone of the central Michigan Basin, USA. The requirement of gridded data render spline functions inappropriate tools for representing many types of geological mapped data. Comparisons are drawn with maps for the same Michigan data based on trend surfaces and spatial filtering.     

Amoeboid olivine aggregates and related objects in carbonaceous chondrites: records of nebular and asteroid processes

Amoeboid olivine aggregates (AOAs) are the most common type of refractory inclusions in CM, CR, CH, CV, CO, and ungrouped carbonaceous chondrites Acfer 094 and Adelaide; only one AOA was found in the CB_b chondrite Hammadah al Hamra 237 and none were observed in the CB_a chondrites Bencubbin, Gujba, and Weatherford. In primitive (unaltered and unmetamorphosed) carbonaceous chondrites, AOAs consist of forsterite (Fa_<2), Fe, Ni-metal (5-12 wt% Ni), and Ca, Al-rich inclusions (CAIs) composed of Al-diopside, spinel, anorthite, and very rare melilite. Melilite is typically replaced by a fine-grained mixture of spinel, Al-diopside, and ±anorthite; spinel is replaced by anorthite. About 10% of AOAs contain low-Ca pyroxene replacing forsterite. Forsterite and spinel are always ¹⁶O-rich (δ^17,18O∼−40‰ to −50‰), whereas melilite, anorthite, and diopside could be either similarly ¹⁶O-rich or ¹⁶O-depleted to varying degrees; the latter is common in AOAs from altered and metamorphosed carbonaceous chondrites such as some CVs and COs. Low-Ca pyroxene is either ¹⁶O-rich (δ^17,18O∼−40‰) or ¹⁶O-poor (δ^17,18O∼0‰). Most AOAs in CV chondrites have unfractionated (∼2-10×CI) rare-earth element patterns. AOAs have similar textures, mineralogy and oxygen isotopic compositions to those of forsterite-rich accretionary rims surrounding different types of CAIs (compact and fluffy Type A, Type B, and fine-grained, spinel-rich) in CV and CR chondrites. AOAs in primitive carbonaceous chondrites show no evidence for alteration and thermal metamorphism. Secondary minerals in AOAs from CR, CM, and CO, and CV chondrites are similar to those in chondrules, CAIs, and matrices of their host meteorites and include phyllosilicates, magnetite, carbonates, nepheline, sodalite, grossular, wollastonite, hedenbergite, andradite, and ferrous olivine.Our observations and a thermodynamic analysis suggest that AOAs and forsterite-rich accretionary rims formed in ¹⁶O-rich gaseous reservoirs, probably in the CAI-forming region(s), as aggregates of solar nebular condensates originally composed of forsterite, Fe, Ni-metal, and CAIs. Some of the CAIs were melted prior to aggregation into AOAs and experienced formation of Wark-Lovering rims. Before and possibly after the aggregation, melilite and spinel in CAIs reacted with SiO and Mg of the solar nebula gas enriched in ¹⁶O to form Al-diopside and anorthite. Forsterite in some AOAs reacted with ¹⁶O-enriched SiO gas to form low-Ca pyroxene. Some other AOAs were either reheated in ¹⁶O-poor gaseous reservoirs or coated by ¹⁶O-depleted pyroxene-rich dust and melted to varying degrees, possibly during chondrule formation. The most extensively melted AOAs experienced oxygen isotope exchange with ¹⁶O-poor nebular gas and may have been transformed into magnesian (Type I) chondrules. Secondary mineralization and at least some of the oxygen isotope exchange in AOAs from altered and metamorphosed chondrites must have resulted from alteration in the presence of aqueous solutions after aggregation and lithification of the chondrite parent asteroids.     

Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.