Radiocarbon and 230Th data reveal rapid redistribution and temporal changes in sediment focussing at a North Atlantic drift

In locations of rapid sediment accumulation receiving substantial amounts of laterally transported material the timescales of transport and accurate quantification of the transported material are at the focus of intense research. Here we present radiocarbon data obtained on co-occurring planktic foraminifera, marine haptophyte biomarkers (alkenones) and total organic carbon (TOC) coupled with excess Thorium-230 (²³⁰Th_xs) measurements on four sediment cores retrieved in 1649–2879 m water depth from two such high accumulation drift deposits in the Northeast Atlantic, Björn and Gardar Drifts. While ²³⁰Th_xs inventories imply strong sediment focussing, no age offsets are observed between planktic foraminifera and alkenones, suggesting that redistribution of sediments is rapid and occurs soon after formation of marine organic matter, or that transported material contains negligible amounts of alkenones. An isotopic mass balance calculation based on radiocarbon concentrations of co-occurring sediment components leads us to estimate that transported sediment components contain up to 12% of fossil organic matter that is free of or very poor in alkenones, but nevertheless appears to consist of a mixture of fresh and eroded fossil material. Considering all available constraints to characterize transported material, our results show that although focussing factors calculated from bulk sediment ²³⁰Th_xs inventories may allow useful approximations of bulk redeposition, they do not provide a unique estimate of the amount of each laterally transported sediment component. Furthermore, our findings provide evidence that the occurrence of lateral sediment redistribution alone does not always hinder the use of multiple proxies but that individual sediment fractions are affected to variable extents by sediment focussing.     

Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide?

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) provide projections for future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions ??drivers??: population p, standard of living g, energy productivity (or efficiency) f and energy carbonization c (IPCC WG III 2007). The range of scenarios considered is extremely broad, however, and this is a primary source of forecast uncertainty (Stott and Kettleborough, Nature 416:723?C725, 2002). Here, it is shown both theoretically and observationally how the evolution of the human system can be considered from a surprisingly simple thermodynamic perspective in which it is unnecessary to explicitly model two of the emissions drivers: population and standard of living. Specifically, the human system grows through a self-perpetuating feedback loop in which the consumption rate of primary energy resources stays tied to the historical accumulation of global economic production??or p×g??through a time-independent factor of 9.7±0.3 mW per inflation-adjusted 1990 US dollar. This important constraint, and the fact that f and c have historically varied rather slowly, points towards substantially narrowed visions of future emissions scenarios for implementation in GCMs.     

The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part I: Observed spatio-temporal relationships

We study the influence of synoptic scale atmospheric circulation on extreme daily precipitation across the United Kingdom, using observed time series from 689 rain gauges. To this end we employ a statistical model, that uses airflow strength, direction and vorticity as predictors for the generalised extreme value distribution of monthly precipitation maxima. The inferred relationships are connected with the dominant westerly flow, the orography, and the moisture supply from surrounding seas. We aggregated the results for individual rain gauges to regional scales to investigate the temporal variability of extreme precipitation. Airflow explains a significant fraction of the variability on subannual to decadal time scales. A large fraction of the especially heavy winter precipitation during the 1980s and 1990s in north Scotland can be attributed to a prevailing positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our statistical model can be used for statistical downscaling and to validate regional climate model output.     

Geometric and structural river channel complexity and the prediction of urban inundation

Recent research modelling floodplain inundation processes has concentrated on issues surrounding the level of physical, topographical, and numerical solver complexity needed to represent floodplain flows adequately. However, during flooding episodes the channel typically still conveys the bulk of the flow. Despite this, the effect of channel physical processes and topographic complexity on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry, channel long‐profile variability and the representation of hydraulic structures on floodplain inundation are explored using a coupled dynamic 1D‐2D hydraulic model (ESTRY‐TUFLOW) of the Carlisle floods of January 2005. These simulations are compared with those from a simplified 1D‐2D model, LISFLOOD‐FP. In this case, the simpler model is sufficient to simulate the far‐field peak flood elevations. However, comparison of channel dynamics suggests that the full shallow water approximation used by ESTRY‐TUFLOW gives a more robust performance when models calibrated on maximum floodplain water elevations are used to predict channel water levels. Examination of the response of ESTRY‐TUFLOW to variations in channel geometric complexity shows that downstream variations in the channel long profile are more important than cross‐section variability for obtaining a dataset‐independent calibration. The results show, in general, that as model physical complexity is increased, calibrated parameters become less ‘effective’, and as a consequence, the values of performance measures reduce less rapidly away from the optimum value. This means that often more physically complex models are less likely to yield different optimum parameter values when calibrated on different datasets resulting in a more robust numerical model. Lastly, the inclusion of bridge structures can simulate substantial local backwatering effects, but the variability in observed water and wrack marks is such that it is not possible to discern the effect of the bridges at this site in the post‐event observational dataset. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics of a Shallow River Plume: Observations from the Saco River Coastal Observing System

Interest in the coastal dynamics of river plumes has mainly focused on large rivers, but plumes from the more numerous smaller rivers have important local consequences and may, in aggregate, be significant contributors to coastal circulation. We studied the dynamics of the plume from the Saco River in Saco Bay, Gulf of Maine, over a 3-year period. The transport and salinity in the region are governed by river discharge, tides, winds, and interaction with the Western Maine Coastal Current. The dynamics of the flow field vary with location within the plume and discharge. The far-field dynamics of the Saco River plume are dominated by inertial processes (hence qualifying it as a small-scale river plume), during times of low discharge, with low salinity water present both up and downstream of the river mouth, but are dominated by rotational processes during times of high discharge (thus qualifying it as a large-scale river plume), with buoyant water primarily advected downshelf. Near-field dynamics are governed by weak, subcritical flow during low discharge but strongly inertial, supercritical flow during high discharge. Offshore movement of the plume is not governed by Ekman dynamics but is instead a result of discharge, wind-induced vertical mixing, and the geography of the coastline and adjacent islands.     

Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well, Alaska North Slope: Overview of scientific and technical program

The Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well was drilled within the Alaska North Slope (ANS) Milne Point Unit (MPU) from February 3 to 19, 2007. The well was conducted as part of a Cooperative Research Agreement (CRA) project co-sponsored since 2001 by BP Exploration (Alaska), Inc. (BPXA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to help determine whether ANS gas hydrate can become a technically and commercially viable gas resource. Early in the effort, regional reservoir characterization and reservoir simulation modeling studies indicated that up to 0.34 trillion cubic meters (tcm; 12 trillion cubic feet, tcf) gas may be technically recoverable from 0.92 tcm (33 tcf) gas-in-place within the Eileen gas hydrate accumulation near industry infrastructure within ANS MPU, Prudhoe Bay Unit (PBU), and Kuparuk River Unit (KRU) areas. To further constrain these estimates and to enable the selection of a test site for further data acquisition, the USGS reprocessed and interpreted MPU 3D seismic data provided by BPXA to delineate 14 prospects containing significant highly-saturated gas hydrate-bearing sand reservoirs. The “Mount Elbert” site was selected to drill a stratigraphic test well to acquire a full suite of wireline log, core, and formation pressure test data. Drilling results and data interpretation confirmed pre-drill predictions and thus increased confidence in both the prospect interpretation methods and in the wider ANS gas hydrate resource estimates. The interpreted data from the Mount Elbert well provide insight into and reduce uncertainty of key gas hydrate-bearing reservoir properties, enable further refinement and validation of the numerical simulation of the production potential of both MPU and broader ANS gas hydrate resources, and help determine viability of potential field sites for future extended term production testing. Drilling and data acquisition operations demonstrated that gas hydrate scientific research programs can be safely, effectively, and efficiently conducted within ANS infrastructure. The program success resulted in a technical team recommendation to project management to drill and complete a long-term production test within the area of existing ANS infrastructure. If approved by stakeholders, this long-term test would build on prior arctic research efforts to better constrain the potential gas rates and volumes that could be produced from gas hydrate-bearing sand reservoirs.     

Structuring decision-making for ecosystem-based management

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has been widely accepted as the new paradigm to manage marine ecosystems. Although various efforts have been made to define key components, guidelines, and principles, in support of its implementation, there is still a gap between theory and practice. To implement EBM, managers require a decision-making framework in which the values of constituents, objectives and performance measures are consistent and used to evaluate and choose between alternatives. Structured decision-making (SDM) is a systematic approach that can contribute to develop this framework for EBM. SDM was used for the on-going EBM process on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. This case study provides insights into how SDM can be implemented for EBM, as well as some challenges and opportunities encountered during the process.     

Sulfate reduction below the sulfate-methane transition in Black Sea sediments

A sudden increase in salinity about 7000 years ago caused a shift in the deposited sediments of the Black Sea from limnic to brackish-marine. Due to the development of an anoxic deep water basin and a relatively high sulfate concentration, organic matter is mineralized primarily through sulfate reduction in modern Black Sea sediments. Earlier studies showed that sulfate-reducing bacteria are abundant within the limnic sub-surface sediment in spite of extremely low concentrations of sulfate and organic carbon. A main objective of the present study was therefore to understand the depth distribution of sulfate reduction across the different sediment units, even deep below the sulfate-methane transition. Our study combined experimental measurements of sulfate reduction using ³⁵S radiotracer with analyses of sulfur and iron geochemistry in pore water and sediment. Potential sulfate reduction rates were measured with ³⁵S in sediment samples that were amended with sulfate and organic substrates and incubated in time-series up to 48 h. Sulfate reduction could thereby be detected and quantified at depths where concentrations of sulfate were otherwise too low to enable calculation of the rates. The results demonstrate that sulfate-reducing bacteria are active several meters below the sulfate-methane transition in Black Sea sediments. The cryptic sulfate reduction below the sulfate-methane transition may be driven by sulfate produced from re-oxidation of reduced sulfur species with oxidized iron minerals buried in the deep limnic sediment.     

Physical and chemical processes promoting dominance of the toxic cyanobacterium Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii

The freshwater cyanobacterium, Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (Wo?oszyńska) Seenayya and Subba Raju is a common species in lakes and reservoirs globally. In some areas of the world it can produce cyto- and hepatotoxins (cylindrospermopsins, saxitoxins), making blooms of this species a serious health concern for humans. In the last 10-15 years, there has been a considerable body of research conducted on the ecology, physiology and toxin production of this species and this paper reviews these studies with a focus on the cylindrospermopsin (CYN)-producing strains. C. raciborskii has low light requirements, close to neutral buoyancy, and a wide temperature tolerance, giving it the capacity to grow in many lentic waterbodies. It also has a flexible strategy with respect to nitrogen (N) utilisation; being able to switch between utilising fixed and atmospheric N as sources of N fluctuate. Additionally this species has a high phosphate (DIP) affinity and storage capacity. Like many cyanobacteria, it also has the capacity to use dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP). Changes in nutrient concentrations, light levels and temperature have also been found to affect production of the toxin CYN by this species. However, optimal toxin production does not necessarily occur when growth rates are optimal. Additionally, different strains of C. raciborskii vary in their cell quota of CYN, making it difficult to predict toxin concentrations, based on C. raciborskii cell densities. In summary, the ecological flexibility of this organism means that controlling blooms of C. raciborskii is a difficult undertaking. However, improved understanding of factors promoting the species and toxin production by genetically capable strains will lead to improved predictive models of blooms.