How to attribute market leakage to CDM projects

Abstract

Economic studies suggest that market leakage rates of greenhouse gas abatement can reach the two-digit percentage range. Although the Marrakesh Accords require Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects to account for leakage, most projects neglect market leakage. Insufficient leakage accounting is facilitated by a lack of applicable methods regarding the quantification and attribution of project-related leakage effects. This article proposes a method for attributing CDM-related market leakage effects to individual projects. To this purpose, alternative attribution methods are analysed. We find that project-specific approaches fail to take account of market leakage effects. Consequently, we propose to estimate aggregate market leakage effects and attribute them proportionally to individual projects. We suggest that predetermined commodity-specific leakage factors are applied by project developers to any emission reductions that are associated with a project's leakage-relevant demand or supply changes. This approach is conservative, equitable, incentive-compatible and applicable at manageable costs.     

Contaminant exposure and effects in Baltic ringed and grey seals as assessed by biomarkers

The Baltic Sea ecosystem has suffered from a heavy pollutant load for more than three decades. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals have been of most concern due to their persistence and toxic properties. Ringed seals (Phoca hispida baltica) and grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) living in the Baltic Sea have been suffering from pathological impairments, including reproductive disturbances, which have resulted in a depressed reproductive capacity. We investigated several biochemical parameters as potential biomarkers for exposure to and effects of the contaminant load in the Baltic seals. Seals from less polluted areas were used as reference material in terms of the pollution load. In both Baltic seal populations, the levels of some biochemical parameters diverged from those in the reference seals, and some of these showed a clear correlation with the individual contaminant load. Of the potential bioindicators, we propose cytochrome P4501A activity and vitamin E levels, in blubber or plasma, as exposure biomarkers for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) in both species. The arylhydrocarbon receptor-mediated chemical-activated luciferase gene expression (CALUX) response reflects the whole PCB and DDT burden in ringed seals. Retinyl palmitate (vitamin A) levels showed a negative correlation with the individual POP load, and is proposed as potential effect biomarkers for the depletion of the vitamin A stores. As the nutritional levels of both vitamin A and E have an impact on the vitamin levels in the seals, more information on the dietary vitamin levels is needed before any conclusions can be drawn. As the relationship between biochemical parameters and contaminants varied between the two species, species-specific characteristics has to be considered when monitoring the health status and possible toxic effects of the contaminant load in ringed and grey seals.     

Damage–viscoplastic consistency model with a parabolic cap for rocks with brittle and ductile behavior under low‐velocity impact loading

This paper presents a damage–viscoplastic cap model for rocks with brittle and ductile behavior under low‐velocity impact loading, which occurs, e.g. in percussive drilling. The model is based on a combination of the recent viscoplastic consistency model by Wang and the isotropic damage concept. This approach does not suffer from ill posedness—caused by strain softening—of the underlying boundary/initial‐value problem since viscoplasticity provides a regularization under dynamic loading by introducing an internal length scale. The model uses the Drucker–Prager (DP) yield function with the modified Rankine criterion as a tension cut‐off and a parabolic cap surface as a compression cut‐off. The parabolic cap is smoothly fitted to the DP cone. The strain softening law in compression is calibrated with the degradation index concept of Fang and Harrison. Thereby, the model is able to capture the brittle‐to‐ductile transition and hardening behavior of geomaterials under highly confined compression, which is the prevailing stress state under a bit‐button in percussive drilling. Rock strength heterogeneity is characterized statistically at the structural level using the Weibull distribution. An explicit time integrator is chosen for solving the FE‐discretized equations of motion. The contact constraints due to the impact of an indenter are imposed with the forward increment Lagrange multiplier method that is compatible with explicit time integrators. The model is tested at the material point level with various uniaxial and triaxial tests. At the structural level confined compression, uniaxial tension tests and a rock sample under low‐velocity impact are simulated. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical modelling of bit–rock fracture mechanisms in percussive drilling with a continuum approach

This paper presents a numerical method for continuum modelling of the dynamic bit–rock interaction process in percussive drilling. The method includes a constitutive model based on a combination of the recent viscoplastic consistency model, the isotropic damage concept and a parabolic compression cap. The interaction between the drill bit and rock is modelled using contact mechanics by treating the bit as a rigid body. As the bit–rock interaction in percussive drilling is a transient event, the method is implemented in explicit dynamics FEM. The rock strength heterogeneity is characterized at the mesoscopic level statistically using the Weibull distribution. The bit–rock interaction is simulated under axisymmetric conditions using cylindrical and hemispherical buttons. The choice of the quite complex constitutive model accounting, e.g. for plastic compaction, viscoplastic shear and tensile failure along with induced damage and rate dependency is justified by numerical simulations. Moreover, the quasi‐static and dynamic cases are compared in plane strain simulations. Finally, some results clarifying the discrepancy of opinions found in the literature concerning the side (lateral) crack formation are obtained. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The 2003 earthquake swarm in Anjalankoski, south-eastern Finland

During May 2003 a swarm of 16 earthquakes (M_L = 0.6–2.1) occurred at Anjalankoski, south-eastern Finland. The activity lasted for three weeks, but additional two events were observed at the same location in October 2004. A comparison of the waveforms indicated that the source mechanisms and the hypocentres of the events were nearly identical.A relative earthquake location method was applied to better define the geometry of the cluster and to identify the fault plane associated with the earthquakes. The relocated earthquakes aligned along an ENE–WSW trending zone, with a lateral extent of about 1.0 km by 0.8 km. The relative location and the waveform-modelling of depth sensitive surface wave (Rg) and S-to-P converted body wave (sP) phases indicated that the events were unusually shallow, most likely occurring within the first 2 km of the surface. The revised historical earthquake data confirm that shallow swarm-type seismicity is characteristic to the area.The focal mechanism obtained as a composite solution of the five strongest events corresponds to dip-slip motion along a nearly vertical fault plane (strike = 250°, dip = 80°, rake = 90°). The dip and strike of this nodal plane as well as the relocated hypocentres coincide with an internal intrusion boundary of the Vyborg rapakivi batholith.The events occur under a compressive local stress field, which is explained by large gravitational potential energy differences and ridge-push forces. Pore-pressure changes caused by intrusion of ground water and/or radon gas into the fracture zones are suggested to govern the swarm-type earthquake activity.     

Seismo-engineering parameters for sites of interim storages for spent nuclear fuel at German nuclear power plants

Within the scope of the licensing procedure for 12 interim storage facilities for spent nuclear fuel at nuclear power plants (NPP) and one for the dismantling of a NPP in Germany, site-specific expert reports were carried out to determine seismo-engineering design parameters. Our work was based on the German nuclear safety standard KTA 2201 part 1 “Design of Nuclear Power Plants against Seismic Events” which requires the derivation of the design earthquake in terms of (macroseismic) intensity. The intensity of the particular design earthquake was evaluated by the deterministic method stipulated in KTA 2201 part 1. According to the current state-of-the-art of science and technology supplementary to the deterministic approach, probabilistic evaluations were done setting a probability of exceedance for the occurrence of the design earthquake of 10⁻⁵ year⁻¹. Geological development and neotectonic conditions of the site surrounding areas were included in the evaluations. For 13 interim storage facility sites, soil-dependent design spectra and corresponding strong-motion duration values were determined.For sites with low seismic hazard site-specific design spectra from the literature were used. In the case of sites with higher seismic hazard (design earthquakeVII 1/2 MSK) strong-motion registrations representative for the site were selected from world wide data and subsequently evaluated to derive site-specific design spectra.     

A Comparison of IRI-2016 foF2 Predictions with the Observations at Different Latitudes During Geomagnetic Storms

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - This study investigates the impacts of geomagnetic storms on the performance of the International Reference Ionosphere 2016 (IRI-2016) foF2 predictions at different...     

Mineralogical and strontium isotopic record of hydrothermal processes in the lower ocean crust at and near the East Pacific Rise

Tectonic exposures of upper plutonics (>800 m) that are part of a contiguous section of young East Pacific Rise (EPR) crust at the Hess Deep Rift provide the first regional-scale constraints on hydrothermal processes in the upper plutonic crust formed at a fast-spreading ridge. Submersible-collected samples recovered over a 4-km-wide region show that the sheeted dike complex is largely underlain by a 150- to 200-m-thick gabbro unit, followed by a more primitive gabbronorite unit. Gabbroic samples are variably altered by pervasive fluid flow along fracture networks to amphibole-dominated assemblages. The gabbroic rocks are significantly less altered (average 11% hydrous phases) than the overlying sheeted dike complex (average 24%), and the percentage of hydrous alteration diminishes with depth. Incipient, pervasive fluid flow occurred at amphibolite facies conditions (average 720°C), with slightly higher temperatures in the lower 500 m of the section. The extent of subsequent lower-temperature alteration is generally low and regionally variable. The gabbroic samples are slightly elevated in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr relative to fresh rock values (0.7024) and less enriched than the overlying sheeted dike complex. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr for the pervasively altered gabbroic samples ranges from 0.70244 to 0.70273 (mean 0.70257), tonalites is 0.7038, and pyroxene hornfels ranges from 0.70259 to 0.70271. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr does not vary with depth, and there is a strong positive correlation with the percentage of hydrous phases. Strontium contents of igneous and hydrothermal minerals, combined with bulk rock ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, indicate that Sr-isotopic exchange is largely controlled by the uptake of fluid ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr in hydrous minerals and does not require Sr gain or loss. The minimum, time-integrated fluid–rock ratio for the sheeted dike complex and upper plutonics is 0.55–0.66, and the fluid flux calculated by mass balance is ~2.1 to 2.5 × 10⁶ kg m⁻², 30–60% higher than fluid fluxes calculated in the same manner for sheeted dike complexes on their own at Hess and Pito Deeps, and Ocean Drilling Program Hole 504B. Alteration patterns within the upper plutonics evolved in response to axial magma chamber (AMC) dynamics at the EPR, such that magma replenishment led to assimilation and thermal metamorphism of the country rock, and the position of the hydrothermal root-zone tracked the vertical migration of the AMC. The freshness of the lowermost gabbroic rocks suggests that pervasive fluid flow does not lead to significant fluid and heat fluxes at and near fast-spreading ridges.