Evaluation of forecast strategies for seasonal and decadal forecasts in presence of systematic model errors

This study discusses and compares three different strategies used to deal with model error in seasonal and decadal forecasts. The strategies discussed are the so-called full initialisation, anomaly initialisation and flux correction. In the full initialisation the coupled model is initialised to a state close to the real-world attractor and after initialisation the model drifts towards its own attractor, giving rise to model bias. The anomaly initialisation aims to initialise the model close to its own attractor, by initialising only the anomalies. The flux correction strategy aims to keep the model trajectory close to the real-world attractor by adding empirical corrections. These three strategies have been implemented in the ECMWF coupled model, and are evaluated at seasonal and decadal time-scales. The practical implications of the different strategies are also discussed. Results show that full initialisation results in a clear model drift towards a colder climate. The anomaly initialisation is able to reduce the drift, by initialising around the model mean state. However, the erroneous model mean state results in degraded seasonal forecast skill. The best results on the seasonal time-scale are obtained using momentum-flux correction, mainly because it avoids the positive feedback responsible for a strong cold bias in the tropical Pacific. It is likely that these results are model dependent: the coupled model used here shows a strong cold bias in the Central Pacific, resulting from a positive coupled feedback between winds and SST. At decadal time-scales it is difficult to determine whether any of the strategies is superior to the others.     

耦合模式FGOALS_s 模拟的亚澳季风年际变率及ENSO

本文评估了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室 (LASG/IAP) 新一代耦合气候模式FGOALS_s对亚澳季风和ENSO的模拟。结果表明, FGOALS_s可以模拟出亚澳季风的主要气候态特征。FGOALS_s模拟的ENSO事件振幅为观测值的70%, 同时它合理再现了ENSO周期的非规则性。FGOALS_s可以定性模拟出ENSO的主要空间特征。当赤道东太平洋SST升高时, 印度洋和西太平洋海表面气压升高, 而东太平洋海表面气压降低。FGOALS_s的主要缺陷在于模拟的ENSO峰值多出现在春季和夏季。与ENSO振幅偏小相反, FGOALS_s模拟的亚澳季风年际变率振幅大于观测。但是观测中亚澳季风年际变率与ENSO暖位相的显著负相关关系, 在模式中没有得到合理再现, 原因部分可归之于耦合模式在ENSO锁相模拟上的缺陷。由于模式模拟的ENSO峰值出现在北半球春季和夏季, Walker环流异常下沉支移动到西北太平洋, 其激发出的异常反气旋位置较之观测要偏东, 导致印度季风降水和El Niño的负相关关系不显著; 在北半球冬季, 由于模式中的赤道东太平洋SST暖异常较弱, 亚澳季风响应也偏弱。此外, 由于赤道东太平洋SST异常向西伸展, 观测中位于澳洲季风区的辐散中心向西偏移, 最终导致模式中澳洲季风降水与ENSO的负相关同样不显著。     

What controls early or late onset of tropical North Atlantic hurricane season?

The occurrence of first hurricane in early summer signifies the onset of an active Atlantic hurricane season. The interannual variation of this hurricane onset date is examined for the period 1979-2013. It is found that the onset date has a marked interannual variation. The standard deviation of the interannual variation of the onset day is 17.5 days, with the climatological mean onset happening on July 23.A diagnosis of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis potential index (GPI) indicates that the major difference between an early and a late onset group lies in the maximum potential intensity (MPI). A further diagnosis of the MPI shows that it is primarily controlled by the local SST anomaly (SSTA). Besides the SSTA, vertical shear and mid-tropospheric relative humidity anomalies also contribute significantly to the GPI difference between the early and late onset groups.It is found that the anomalous warm (cold) SST over the tropical Atlantic, while uncorrelated with the Niño3 index, persists from the preceding winter to concurrent summer in the early (late) onset group. The net surface heat flux anomaly always tends to damp the SSTA, which suggests that ocean dynamics may play a role in maintaining the SSTA in the tropical Atlantic. The SSTA pattern with a maximum center in northeastern tropical Atlantic appears responsible for generating the observed wind and moisture anomalies over the main TC development region. A further study is needed to understand the initiation mechanism of the SSTA in the Atlantic.     

Storm track sensitivity to sea surface temperature resolution in a regional atmosphere model

A high resolution regional atmosphere model is used to investigate the sensitivity of the North Atlantic storm track to the spatial and temporal resolution of the sea surface temperature (SST) data used as a lower boundary condition. The model is run over an unusually large domain covering all of the North Atlantic and Europe, and is shown to produce a very good simulation of the observed storm track structure. The model is forced at the lateral boundaries with 15–20 years of data from the ERA-40 reanalysis, and at the lower boundary by SST data of differing resolution. The impacts of increasing spatial and temporal resolution are assessed separately, and in both cases increasing the resolution leads to subtle, but significant changes in the storm track. In some, but not all cases these changes act to reduce the small storm track biases seen in the model when it is forced with low-resolution SSTs. In addition there are several clear mesoscale responses to increased spatial SST resolution, with surface heat fluxes and convective precipitation increasing by 10–20% along the Gulf Stream SST gradient.     

A new paradigm for the predominance of standing Central Pacific Warming after the late 1990s

Canonical El Niño has a warming center in the eastern Pacific (EP), but in recent decades, El Niño warming center tends to occur more frequently in the central Pacific (CP). The definitions and names of this new type of El Niño, however, have been notoriously diverse, which makes it difficult to understand why the warming center shifts. Here, we show that the new type of El Niño events is characterized by: 1) the maximum warming standing and persisting in the CP and 2) the warming extending to the EP only briefly during its peak phase. For this reason, we refer to it as standing CP warming (CPW). Global warming has been blamed for the westward shift of maximum warming as well as more frequent occurrence of CPW. However, we find that since the late 1990s the standing CPW becomes a dominant mode in the Pacific; meanwhile, the epochal mean trade winds have strengthened and the equatorial thermocline slope has increased, contrary to the global warming-induced weakening trades and flattening thermocline. We propose that the recent predominance of standing CPW arises from a dramatic decadal change characterized by a grand La Niña-like background pattern and strong divergence in the CP atmospheric boundary layer. After the late 1990s, the anomalous mean CP wind divergence tends to weaken the anomalous convection and shift it westward from the underlying SST warming due to the suppressed low-level convergence feedback. This leads to a westward shift of anomalous westerly response and thus a zonally in-phase SST tendency, preventing eastward propagation of the SST anomaly. We anticipate more CPW events will occur in the coming decade provided the grand La Niña-like background state persists.     

How are seasonal prediction skills related to models’ performance on mean state and annual cycle?

Given observed initial conditions, how well do coupled atmosphere–ocean models predict precipitation climatology with 1-month lead forecast? And how do the models’ biases in climatology in turn affect prediction of seasonal anomalies? We address these questions based on analysis of 1-month lead retrospective predictions for 21 years of 1981–2001 made by 13 state-of-the-art coupled climate models and their multi-model ensemble (MME). The evaluation of the precipitation climatology is based on a newly designed metrics that consists of the annual mean, the solstitial mode and equinoctial asymmetric mode of the annual cycle, and the rainy season characteristics. We find that the 1-month lead seasonal prediction made by the 13-model ensemble has skills that are much higher than those in individual model ensemble predictions and approached to those in the ERA-40 and NCEP-2 reanalysis in terms of both the precipitation climatology and seasonal anomalies. We also demonstrate that the skill for individual coupled models in predicting seasonal precipitation anomalies is positively correlated with its performances on prediction of the annual mean and annual cycle of precipitation. In addition, the seasonal prediction skill for the tropical SST anomalies, which are the major predictability source of monsoon precipitation in the current coupled models, is closely link to the models’ ability in simulating the SST mean state. Correction of the inherent bias in the mean state is critical for improving the long-lead seasonal prediction. Most individual coupled models reproduce realistically the long-term annual mean precipitation and the first annual cycle (solstitial mode), but they have difficulty in capturing the second annual (equinoctial asymmetric) mode faithfully, especially over the Indian Ocean (IO) and Western North Pacific (WNP) where the seasonal cycle in SST has significant biases. The coupled models replicate the monsoon rain domains very well except in the East Asian subtropical monsoon and the tropical WNP summer monsoon regions. The models also capture the gross features of the seasonal march of the rainy season including onset and withdraw of the Asian–Australian monsoon system over four major sub-domains, but striking deficiencies in the coupled model predictions are observed over the South China Sea and WNP region, where considerable biases exist in both the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle and the summer precipitation amount and its interannual variability are underestimated.     

How Frequently Will the Persistent Heavy Rainfall over the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin in Summer 2020 Happen under Global Warming?

The middle and lower Yangtze River basin (MLYRB) suffered persistent heavy rainfall in summer 2020, with nearly continuous rainfall for about six consecutive weeks. How the likelihood of persistent heavy rainfall resembling that which occurred over the MLYRB in summer 2020 (hereafter 2020PHR-like event) would change under global warming is investigated. An index that reflects maximum accumulated precipitation during a consecutive five-week period in summer (Rx35day) is introduced. This accumulated precipitation index in summer 2020 is 60% stronger than the climatology, and a statistical analysis further shows that the 2020 event is a 1-in-70-year event. The model projection results derived from the 50-member ensemble of CanESM2 and the multimodel ensemble (MME) of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event will dramatically increase under global warming. Based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnoff test, one-third of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models that have reasonable performance in reproducing the 2020PHR-like event in their historical simulations are selected for the future projection study. The CMIP5 and CMIP6 MME results show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event under the present-day climate will be double under lower-emission scenarios (CMIP5 RCP4.5, CMIP6 SSP1-2.6, and SSP2-4.5) and 3–5 times greater under higher-emission scenarios (3.0 times for CMIP5 RCP8.5, 2.9 times for CMIP6 SSP3-7.0, and 4.8 times for CMIP6 SSP5-8.5). The inter-model spread of the probability change is small, lending confidence to the projection results. The results provide a scientific reference for mitigation of and adaptation to future climate change.     

Combining compositional zoning and foliation intersection axes (FIAs) in garnet to quantitatively determine early P-T-t paths in multiply deformed and metamorphosed schists: north central Massachusetts,USA

Quantitative compositional and microstructural analysis of garnet porphyroblasts in kyanite–staurolite–garnet grade rocks from the northeastern flank of the Pelham dome, north central Massachusetts, distinguishes the effects of Acadian deformation and metamorphism from extensive overprinting Alleghanian shearing. The P–T conditions and the metamorphic path during the Acadian were determined using samples preserving well defined stages in a lengthy tectonic history revealed by a succession of five foliation intersection axis trends preserved within porphyroblasts (FIAs). This Acadian succession extends at least 120 km to the north into rocks where no evidence has been found of an Alleghanian overprint. For each sample where garnet first nucleated during one of these stages in the tectonic history, the PT of core growth was determined by plotting the intersection of the Mn, Fe and Ca isopleths calculated for the core composition on a P–T pseudosection for that sample using THERMOCALC. Combining the PT data from all these samples indicates that the temperature and pressure increased throughout Acadian orogenesis, causing episodic garnet growth. During the Alleghanian, locally intense shearing, especially against the margin of the Pelham dome, formed the dominant schistosity, which truncated all foliations defined by inclusion trails in porphyroblasts and obliterated all remains of Acadian deformation and metamorphism in the rock matrix. Shearing was accompanied by near complete homogenization of the compositional zoning in garnet porphyroblasts and an associated apparent increase in the temperature of the matrix to 700°C in those rocks lying directly adjacent to the Pelham dome, and resulted from the rocks of the Northfield syncline being thrust a large distance southwards over the gneisses in the dome.