Is public awareness and perceived threat of climate change associated with governmental mitigation targets?

Social scientists and science communicators are concerned about the apparent discrepancy between the scientific consensus on climate change (Anderegg et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:12107–12109, 2010; Doran and Zimmerman EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 90:22–3, 2009) and the general public’s views (Knight Environ Sociol 2:101–113, 2016; Lee et al. Nat Clim Chang 5:1014–1020, 2015). It is reasoned that increased public awareness and perceived threat of climate change may pressure governments to enact policy to counteract climate change (e.g. setting stringent carbon emissions targets). Despite a logical link between public awareness and government-set emissions targets, this relationship remains untested. We examined the relationship between public awareness about and perceived threat of climate change and governmental emissions targets across 71 countries and 1 region. We found a positive association between the proportions of a country’s population that are aware of climate change and the unconditional emissions reduction targets set by that country in the Paris Agreement (Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, the proportion of people in a country who perceive climate change as a personal threat was not associated with higher emissions reduction targets. Our results suggest that public awareness may be an important part of garnering the public support required for policies designed to mitigate climate change to succeed.     

Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensification on the Latitude under Vertical Shear

The sensitivity of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification to the ambient rotation effect under vertical shear is investigated. The results show that the vortices develop more rapidly with intermediate planetary vorticity, which suggests an optimal latitude for the TC development in the presence of vertical shear. This is different from the previous studies in which no mean flow is considered. It is found that the ambient rotation has two main effects. On the one hand, the boundary layer imbalance is largely controlled by the Coriolis parameter. For TCs at lower latitudes, due to the weaker inertial instability, the boundary inflow is promptly established, which results in a stronger moisture convergence and thus greater diabatic heating in the inner core region. On the other hand, the Coriolis parameter modulates the vertical realignment of the vortex with a higher Coriolis parameter, favoring a quicker vertical realignment and thus a greater potential for TC development. The combination of these two effects results in an optimal latitude for TC intensification in the presence of a vertical shear investigated.     

Influence of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Extreme Temperature Events in the Northern Hemisphere

The impact of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) on extreme hot and cool events was investigated, by analyzing the observed and reanalysis data for the period from 1983 to 2012. It is found that the frequency of the extreme events in middle and high latitudes is significantly modulated by the BSISO convection in the tropics, with a 3–9-day lag. During phases 1 and 2 when the BSISO positive rainfall anomaly is primarily located over a northwest–southeast oriented belt extending from India to Maritime Continent and a negative rainfall anomaly appears in western North Pacific, the frequency of extreme hot events is 40% more than the frequency of non-extreme hot events. Most noticeable increase appears in midlatitude North Pacific (north of 40°N) and higher-latitude polar region.Two physical mechanisms are primarily responsible for the change of the extreme frequency. First, an upper-tropospheric Rossby wave train (due to the wave energy propagation) is generated in response to a negative heating anomaly over tropical western North Pacific in phases 1 and 2. This wave train consists of a strong high pressure anomaly center northeast of Japan, a weak low pressure anomaly center over Alaska, and a strong high pressure anomaly center over the western coast of United States. Easterly anomalies to the south of the two strong midlatitude high pressure centers weaken the climatological subtropical jet along 40°N, which is accompanied by anomalous subsidence and warming in North Pacific north of 40°N. Second, an enhanced monsoonal heating over South Asia and East Asia sets up a transverse monsoonal overturning circulation, with large-scale ascending (descending) anomalies over tropical Indian (Pacific) Ocean. Both the processes favor more frequent extreme hot events in higher-latitude Northern Hemisphere. An anomalous atmospheric general circulation model is used to confirm the tropical heating effect.     

Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and...     

From vulnerability to immunization—A genealogy of early attempts to deal with the climate

In an age of anthropogenic climate change, risk and vulnerability have become common parlance. Yet the histories of both concepts are bound up in the colonial project. This article attempts to give a brief genealogy of these concepts by considering their evolution within early colonial attempts to deal with the dangers and threats posed by a tropical climate. This article argues that British and French colonial writers and administrators began to understand the dangers associated with colonizing distant lands as distinct risks associated with living in a tropical climate. Tropical fevers, ecological devastation, famine and revolt in particular spurred on the development of new knowledge, which advanced understandings of the effects of the tropical climate both on European health and long‐term colonial ambitions. In turn the concept of a pernicious tropical climate that posed a biological threat to the health of Europeans came to play a major role in configuring prevailing notions of race, health and morality. Risk and vulnerability have been key discursive features of new knowledges and governmental technologies crafted in the context of colonialism to secure European rule over distant lands and people.     

Factors governing abundance of hydrolyzable amino acids in the sediments from the N.W. European Continental Margin (47–50°N)

Fifty-six samples representing 6 sediment cores taken along the N.W. European Continental Margin from the shelf, slope and abyssal plain of the Goban Spur and Meriadzek Terrace were quantitatively analysed for total hydrolyzable amino acids (THAA) and clay minerals. In descending order, the five most abundant amino acids making up more than 70% of the total were: aspartic acid, glycine, serine, alanine and glutamic acid. Clay mineral proportions were typical for the N.E. Atlantic, in order of descending abundance: illite, kaolinite, chlorite, smectite and mixed layers.The Meriadzek Terrace area is characterised by fine grain suspension sedimentation with a low pelagic carbonate input and the lowest content of THAA. In contrast, the Goban Spur transect is characterised by much higher carbonate inputs and more vigorous hydrodynamics as judged from granulometry and the high abundance of minerals of shelf and continental origin and a generally higher THAA content. The pelagic portion of THAA deposited at the sea floor is more readily mineralised during early diagenesis than the more ‘refractory', clay mineral-associated continental portion. Along this margin the average mineralization of THAA down to 25 cm in the sediment is about 54%. There is a significant affinity between chlorites and amino acids which we suggest may involve the formation of ionic bonds between the octahedral layers of the clay and the amino acids.     

Trace metals and radionuclides reveal sediment sources and accumulation rates in Jordan Cove, Connecticut

Many small estuaries are influenced by flow restrictions resulting from transportation rights-of-way and other causes. The biogeochemical functioning and history of such systems can be evaluated through study of their sediments. Ten long and six short cores were collected from the length of Jordan Cove, Connecticut, a Long Island Sound subestuary, and analyzed for stratigraphy, radionuclides (¹⁴C, ²¹⁰Pb, ²²⁶Ra, ¹³⁷Cs, and ⁶⁰Co), and metals (Ag, Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn, Fe, and Al). For at least 3,800 yr, rising sea level has gradually inundated Jordan Cove, filling it with mud similar to that currently being deposited there. Long-term sediment accumulation in the cove averaged close to 0.1 cm yr⁻¹ over the last three millennia. Recent sediment accumulation rates decrease inland from 0.84 cm yr⁻¹ to 0.40 cm yr⁻¹, and are slightly faster than relative sea-level rise at this site (0.3 cm yr⁻¹). Similarity of depth distributions of trace metals was used to confirm relative sediment accumulation rates. ⁶⁰Co and Ag are derived from sources outside the cove and its watershed, presumably the Millstone nuclear power plant and regional contaminated sediments, respectively. The combined data suggest that Long Island Sound is an important source of sediment to the cove; a minor part of total sediment is supplied from the local watershed. Trace metal levels are strongly correlated with Fe but not with either organic matter or Al. Sediment quality has declined in the cove over the past 60 yr, but only slightly. Cu, Pb, and Zn data correlate strongly with Fe but not with either organic matter or aluminum. Ratios of Ag to Fe and to trace metals suggest that Ag in the cove is derived almost entirely from Long Island Sound. This result supports the notion that Fenormalized Ag can serve as a better tracer of some kinds of contamination than more common and abundant metals, like Cu, Pb, and Zn. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY085 00008     

Volcanoes and peat bogs

Peat bogs in the British Isles contain tephra from volcanic eruptions in Iceland; tephra in the Falkland Islands most likely derives from Andean volcanoes. Study of these far-travelled volcanic products is making a significant contribution to our understanding of past environmental changes.     

Paleoenvironmental and Human Behavioral Implications of the Boegoeberg 1 Late Pleistocene Hyena Den, Northern Cape Province, South Africa

Boegoeberg 1 (BOG1) is located on the Atlantic coast of South Africa, 850 km north of Cape Town. The site is a shallow rock shelter in the side of a sand-choked gully that was emptied by diamond miners. Abundant coprolites, chewed bones, and partially digested bones implicate hyenas as the bone accumulators. The location of the site, quantity of bones, and composition of the fauna imply it was a brown hyena nursery den. The abundance of Cape fur seal bones shows that the hyenas had ready access to the coast. Radiocarbon dates place the site before 37,000 ¹⁴C yr ago, while the large average size of the black-backed jackals and the presence of extralimital ungulates imply cool, moist conditions, probably during the early part of the last glaciation (isotope stage 4 or stage 3 before 37,000 ¹⁴C yr ago) or perhaps during one of the cooler phases (isotope substages 5d or 5b) within the last interglaciation. Comparisons of the BOG1 seal bones to those from regional Middle Stone Age (MSA) and Later Stone Age (LSA) archeological sites suggest (1) that hyena and human seal accumulations can be distinguished by a tendency for vertebrae to be much more common in a hyena accumulation and (2) that hyena and LSA accumulations can be distinguished by a tendency for hyena-accumulated seals to represent a much wider range of individual seal ages. Differences in the way hyenas and people dismember, transport, and consume seal carcasses probably explain the contrast in skeletal part representation, while differences in season of occupation explain the contrast in seal age representation. Like modern brown hyenas, the BOG1 hyenas probably occupied the coast year-round, while the LSA people focused their coastal visits on the August–October interval when nine-to-eleven-month-old seals were abundant. The MSA sample from Klasies River Mouth Cave 1 resembles BOG1 in seal age composition, suggesting that unlike LSA people, MSA people obtained seals more or less throughout the year.