Why does the Antarctic Peninsula Warm in climate simulations?

The Antarctic Peninsula has warmed significantly since the 1950s. This pronounced and isolated warming trend is collectively captured by 29 twentieth-century climate hindcasts participating in the version 3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. To understand the factors driving warming trends in the hindcasts, we examine trends in Peninsula region’s atmospheric heat budget in every simulation. We find that atmospheric latent heat release increases in nearly all hindcasts. These increases are generally anthropogenic in origin, and account for about 60% of the ensemble-mean warming trend in the Peninsula. They are driven primarily by well-understood features of the anthropogenic intensification of global hydrological cycle. As sea surface temperature increases, moisture contained in atmospheric flows increases. When such flows are forced to ascend the Peninsula’s topography, enhanced local latent heat release results. The mechanism driving the warming of the Antarctic Peninsula is therefore clear in the models. Evidence for a similar mechanism operating in the real world is seen in the increasing snow accumulation rates inferred from ice cores drilled in the Peninsula. However, the relative importance of this mechanism and other processes previously identified as potentially causing the observed warming, such as the recent sea ice retreat in the Bellingshausen Sea, is difficult to assess. Thus the relevance of the simulated warming mechanism to the observed warming is unclear, in spite of its robustness in the models.     

Assessment of atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations of winter northern hemisphere atmospheric blocking

An assessment of six coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) is undertaken in order to evaluate their ability in simulating winter atmospheric blocking highs in the northern hemisphere. The poor representation of atmospheric blocking in climate models is a long-standing problem (e.g. D’Andrea et?al. in Clim Dyn 4:385–407, 1998), and despite considerable effort in model development, there is only a moderate improvement in blocking simulation. A modified version of the Tibaldi and Molteni (in Tellus A 42:343–365, 1990) blocking index is applied to daily averaged 500?hPa geopotential fields, from the ERA-40 reanalysis and as simulated by the climate models, during the winter periods from 1957 to 1999. The two preferred regions of blocking development, in the Euro-Atlantic and North Pacific, are relatively well captured by most of the models. However, the prominent error in blocking simulations consists of an underestimation of the total frequency of blocking episodes over both regions. A more detailed analysis revealed that this error was due to an insufficient number of medium spells and long-lasting episodes, and a shift in blocking lifetime distributions towards shorter blocks in the Euro-Atlantic sector. In the Pacific, results are more diverse; the models are equally likely to overestimate or underestimate the frequency at different spell lengths. Blocking spatial signatures are relatively well simulated in the Euro-Atlantic sector, while errors in the intensity and geographical location of the blocks emerge in the Pacific. The impact of models’ systematic errors on blocking simulation has also been analysed. The time-mean atmospheric circulation biases affect the frequency of blocking episodes, and the maximum event duration in the Euro-Atlantic region, while they sometimes cause geographical mislocations in the Pacific sector. The analysis of the systematic error in time-variability has revealed a negative relationship between the high-frequency variability of the transient eddies in the areas affected by blocking and blocking frequency. The blocking responses to errors in the low-frequency variability are different according to the region considered; the amplitude of the low-frequency variability is positively related to the blocking frequency and persistence in the Euro-Atlantic sector, while no such consistency is observed in the Pacific.     

Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century

We show that intermodel variations in the anthropogenically-forced evolution of September sea ice extent (SSIE) in the Arctic stem mainly from two factors: the baseline climatological sea ice thickness (SIT) distribution, and the local climate feedback parameter. The roles of these two factors evolve over the course of the twenty-first century. The SIT distribution is the most important factor in current trends and those of coming decades, accounting for roughly half the intermodel variations in SSIE trends. Then, its role progressively decreases, so that around the middle of the twenty-first century the local climate feedback parameter becomes the dominant factor. Through this analysis, we identify the investments in improved simulation of Arctic climate necessary to reduce uncertainties both in projections of sea ice loss over the coming decades and in the ultimate fate of the ice pack.     

Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales.     

CONNECTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON TO MARITIME CONTINENT CONVECTION AND ENSO

The relationship between the intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) and the Nino3.4 index and anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns associated with a strong and weak SCSSM are investigated using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) data and Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data. The SCSSM is significantly positively correlated with the Nino3.4 index in the succeeding northern autumn and winter. In the strong minus weak SCSSM composite, a positive East Asia-Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern and a negative Europe-Asian-Pacific teleconnection (EUP) pattern appear in the 500 hPa height difference field; low-level cross-equatorial flows are strengthened over the Maritime Continent (MC) region; positive (negative) precipitation anomalies occur in the South China Sea and western north Pacific (MC). A possible mechanism through which SCSSM affects ENSO is proposed. A strong (weak) SCSSM strengthens (weakens) cross-equatorial flows over the MC. The anomalous cross-equatorial flows cool (warm) the SST around the MC through enhanced (reduced) surface latent heat fluxes. The cooling (warming) further leads to suppressed (enhanced) convection over the MC, and causes the anomalous westerly (easterly) in the equatorial western Pacific, which favors the onset of El Ni?o (La Ni?a) through modulating the positive air-sea feedback process.     

Stereoscopic Analysis of the 19 May 2007 Erupting Filament

A filament eruption, accompanied by a B9.5 flare, coronal dimming, and an EUV wave, was observed by the Solar TERrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) on 19 May 2007, beginning at about 13:00 UT. Here, we use observations from the SECCHI/EUVI telescopes and other solar observations to analyze the behavior and geometry of the filament before and during the eruption. At this time, STEREO A and B were separated by about 8.5°, sufficient to determine the three-dimensional structure of the filament using stereoscopy. The filament could be followed in SECCHI/EUVI 304 Å stereoscopic data from about 12 hours before to about 2 hours after the eruption, allowing us to determine the 3D trajectory of the erupting filament. From the 3D reconstructions of the filament and the chromospheric ribbons in the early stage of the eruption, simultaneous heating of both the rising filamentary material and the chromosphere directly below is observed, consistent with an eruption resulting from magnetic reconnection below the filament. Comparisons of the filament during eruption in 304 Å and Hα? show that when it becomes emissive in He II, it tends to disappear in Hα?, indicating that the disappearance probably results from heating or motion, not loss, of filamentary material.     

Perspectives and challenges for future telescopes

At the celebration of 400 years of telescopic observations, it is appropriate to consider future ground-based facilities enabled by continuing technological developments, and driven by astronomical questions which are amongst the most fundamental in science and are of enormous interest to the general public.     

Little River Experimental Watershed,a keystone in understanding of coastal plain watersheds

The US Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service Southeast Watershed Research Laboratory (SEWRL) initiated a hydrologic research program on the Little River Experimental Watershed (LREW) in 1967. Long-term (52 years) streamflow data are available for nine sites, including rainfall-runoff relationships and hydrograph characteristics regularly used in research on interactive effects of climate, vegetation, soils, and land-use in low-gradient streams of the US EPA Level III Southeastern Plains ecoregion. A summary of prior research on the LREW illustrates the impact of the watershed on building a regional understanding of hydrology and water quality. Climatic and streamflow data were used to make comparisons of scale across the nine nested LREW watersheds (LRB, LRF, LRI, LRJ, LRK, LRO, LRN, LRM, and LRO3) and two regional watersheds (Alapaha and Little River at Adel). Annual rainfall for the largest LREW, LRB, was 1200 mm while average annual streamflow was 320 mm. Annual rainfall, streamflow, and the ratio between annual streamflow and rainfall (Sratio) were similar (α = 0.05) across LREWs LRB, LRF, LRI, LRJ, LRK, and LRO. While annual rainfall within the 275 ha LRO3 was found to be similar to LRO and LRM (α = 0.05), annual streamflow and Sratio were significantly different (α = 0.05). Comparisons of annual rainfall, streamflow, and Sratio between LRB and the regional watersheds indicated no differences (α = 0.05). Based upon this analysis, most regional watersheds shared similar hydrologic characteristics. LRO3 was an exception, where increases in row crops and decreases in forest coverage resulted in increased streamflow. LREW data have been instrumental in building considerable scientific understanding of flow and transport processes for these stream systems. Continued operation of the LREW hydrologic network will support hydrologic research as well as environmental quality and riparian research programs that address emerging and high priority natural resource and environmental issues.     

Atmospheric inputs of trace metals to the northeast Atlantic Ocean: the importance of southeasterly flow

The study of aerosols and rainwater presented here demonstrates that episodic atmospheric deposition events associated with southeasterly flow are quantitatively significant for large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean. This paper considers aluminium and manganese, with predominantly crustal sources, and lead and zinc, which are mobilised into the atmosphere primarily through anthropogenic activity. High levels of all trace metals are associated with southeasterly flow from Europe as the air passes over heavily populated and industrialised regions before reaching the northeast Atlantic Ocean. Fluxes calculated using the 1% HNO₃ acid soluble metal concentration show that, although the climatological norm for this area is westerly flow, short-lived southeasterly transport events dominate the input of trace metals to this ocean region. This material may be toxic to phytoplankton or may be represent a new source of nutrients to the biological community. A significant decrease in atmospheric lead levels in polluted air is seen between June 1996 and May 1997, reflecting the decrease in use of leaded fuels in Europe. Comparing atmospheric flux values to sediment trap metal fluxes shows that the atmosphere represents the dominant source of zinc to the deep ocean, whereas an additional, non-atmospheric, manganese source this required, perhaps from mobilisation of sedimentary material from the continental shelf or long range advection of manganese rich Saharan material.     

基于植被状态指数的全国干旱遥感监测试验研究(Ⅰ)--资料分析与处理部分

在收集处理了了1981～1994年连续504旬的由NOAA AVHRR第1、2通道的反射率计算得的NDVI时间系列数据,以及1980～1994年全国102个固定农气观测站的旬土壤湿度资料(-20cm)和相应测站的田间持水量资料基础上,分析了全国NDVI及植被状态指数VCI的时空变化特征,发现NDVI值随季节(旬)分别表现为“双峰型”和“单峰型”的变化,在第17～27旬之间达到极大值,并与作物生长有关,VCI的变化与NDVI的变化呈相反趋势;对资料因站点的分布和密度以及时序位相等差异可能影响资料代表性的探讨认为：因旱情发展有一个过程,故NDVI、SHI的时空特性应该不会影响其分析结果的代表性。综合分析了资料的时空代表性,为干旱遥感监测模型的建立作准备。