Another Record: Ocean Warming Continues through 2021 despite La Ni?a Conditions

The increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities traps heat within the climate system and increases ocean heat content (O...     

Regime-dependent evaluation of accumulated precipitation in COSMO

Regime-dependent evaluation is a relatively new approach to assess model performance. It consists of classifying the model biases according to a discrete number of regimes and evaluating model output within each regime. In this paper, the regimes are firstly defined by the large-scale atmospheric circulation, based on the objective Jenkinson-Collison classification technique which distinguishes synoptic patterns by strength, direction and vorticity of the geostrophic flow. Eight directional and two vorticity circulation regimes (circulation types) are specified. In this way, it is possible to quantify the model performance for cases with for example westerly winds only, or with cyclonic circulation only. A second regime classification is based on temperature, which allows for detection of temperature-dependent model performance. Modelled accumulated precipitation (mm/6?h) is evaluated with rain gauges for the years 2007 and 2008. Two variants of the COSMO model are evaluated: a fine-resolution version (2.8?km, COSMO-DE) and a coarse-resolution version (7?km, COSMO-EU). In COSMO-EU, a windward/leeward effect becomes visible since circulation is related to dominant wind direction, hence to windward and lee side of orography. In COSMO-DE, no circulation dependent but a height-related bias is identified and further explored, making use of temperature-dependent evaluation which unveils a positive model bias related to solid precipitation.     

Interannual Variation of Multiple Tropical Cyclone Events in the Western North Pacific

The interannual variability of occurrence of multiple tropical cyclone(MTC) events during June-October in the western North Pacific(WNP) was examined for the period 1979-2006.The number of the MTC events ranged from 2 to 9 per year,exhibiting a remarkable year-to-year variation.Seven active and seven inactive MTC years were identified.Compared to the inactive years,tropical cyclone genesis locations extended farther to the east and in the meridional direction during the active MTC years.A composite analysis shows that inactive MTC years were often associated with the El Nin o decaying phase,as warm SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern-central Pacific in the preceding winter transitioned into cold sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies in the concurrent summer.Associated with the SST evolution were suppressed low-level cyclonic vorticity and weakened convection in the WNP monsoon region.In addition to the mean flow difference,significant differences between active and inactive MTC years were also found in the strength of the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation(ISO).Compared with inactive MTC years,ISO activity was much stronger along the equator and in the WNP region during active MTC years.Both westward-and northward-propagating ISO spectrums strengthened during active MTC years compared to inactive years.The combined mean state and ISO activity changes may set up a favorable environment for the generation of MTC events.     

The prehistoric Mt Wilberg rock avalanche, Westland, New Zealand

The Mt Wilberg rock avalanche in Westland, New Zealand occurred before 1300 AD and may have occurred as a consequence of an Alpine fault earthquake in ca. 1220 AD or earlier. Its ∼40 × 10⁶ m³ deposit may have briefly obstructed the Wanganui River, but only about 25% of its surface morphology still survives, on terraces isolated from river erosion. The landslide appears to have moved initially as a block, in a direction controlled by a strong rock mass at the base of the source area, before disintegrating and spreading across terraces, fans, and floodplains. Rock avalanche deposits in Westland have relatively short expected lifetimes in the rugged terrain and high rainfall of the area; hence, the hazard from such events is under-represented by their current remnants.     

Testing the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm for spatially explicit reconstruction of vegetation in northern Michigan and Wisconsin

The Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA) overcomes some of the fundamental problems in pollen analysis for quantitative reconstruction of vegetation. LRA first uses the REVEALS model to estimate regional vegetation using pollen data from large sites and then the LOVE model to estimate vegetation composition within the relevant source area of pollen (RSAP) at small sites by subtracting the background pollen estimated from the regional vegetation composition. This study tests LRA using training data from forest hollows in northern Michigan (35 sites) and northwestern Wisconsin (43 sites). In northern Michigan, surface pollen from 152-ha and 332-ha lakes is used for REVEALS. Because of the lack of pollen data from large lakes in northwestern Wisconsin, we use pollen from 21 hollows randomly selected from the 43 sites for REVEALS. RSAP indirectly estimated by LRA is comparable to the expected value in each region. A regression analysis and permutation test validate that the LRA-based vegetation reconstruction is significantly more accurate than pollen percentages alone in both regions. Even though the site selection in northwestern Wisconsin is not ideal, the results are robust. The LRA is a significant step forward in quantitative reconstruction of vegetation.     

基于植被状态指数的全国干旱遥感监测试验研究(Ⅱ)--干旱遥感监测模型与结果分析部分

通过利用1981～1994年连续504旬的由NOAA AVHRR 8km分辨率的NDVI时间系列数据,以及对应时段的全国102,个固定农气观测站的旬土壤湿度资料(-20cm),建立了植被状态指数(VCI)与土壤湿度之间的统计模型,由土壤湿度旱情等级标准来换算出每旬用VCI进行干旱遥感监测的旱情等级标准,以确定出全国的逐句旱情分布。对模型进行的统计检验表明,模型都通过了置信度为a=0．05统计检验。监测试验结果表明,这种方法在作物生长期内应用于大范围旱情遥感监测,有效且简便易行。     

The performance of rainwater tanks for stormwater retention and water supply at the household scale: an empirical study

Urban stormwater run‐off degrades the ecological condition of streams. The use of rainwater tanks to supplement water supply can reduce the frequency and volume of urban stormwater run‐off that is otherwise conveyed directly to streams via conventional stormwater drainage systems. Few studies, however, have examined the use of tanks in the context of managing flow regimes for stream protection, with most focussed uniquely on their water conservation benefits. We used measured tank water level data to assess the performance of 12 domestic rainwater tanks against the dual criteria of their ability to (i) reduce potable mains water usage and (ii) retain run‐off from rainfall events and thus reduce the volume and frequency of stormwater run‐off. We found that five households relied almost entirely on tank water. Three of the tanks achieved stormwater retention performance approaching that of the same area of pre‐developed land, although nine did not – a consequence of limited demand and small tank capacity. Our results suggest that tank water usage can result in substantial reductions in mains water use, if regular and sufficiently large domestic demands are connected to tanks. In many cases, such demands will also result in the best stormwater retention performance. Our results highlight an opportunity to design tank systems to achieve multiple objectives. Application of similar analyses in different locations will help to optimize tanks for simultaneous water supply and stormwater retention purposes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Which baseflow metrics should be used in assessing flow regimes of urban streams?

Determining the impact of urbanisation on baseflow is complex because of the multiplicity of factors that govern subsurface flows. Although many metrics are available to quantify the baseflow regime, the lack of consensus on which metrics need to be used for baseflow characterisation limit their practical application for stormwater management. We performed principal component and correlation analyses on a set of 32 baseflow metrics to identify a subset of non‐redundant metrics for baseflow characterisation. We compared the results for streamflow time series from natural and urban catchments. We found that a subset of five metrics, including at least one metric from each of the four ecologically significant flow characteristic groups (i.e. magnitude, duration, frequency, and timing), explained most of the variability in baseflow regime for both natural and urban catchments. In addition, we analysed the relationship between this set of metrics and some low flow percentiles obtained from flow duration curves. Flow percentiles were only highly correlated to the magnitude and duration metrics, confirming that flow duration curves could be satisfactorily used for baseflow characterisation, but in combination with metrics representing frequency and timing. Metrics based on integration of the flow duration curve, however, cannot simply substitute the consideration of a suite of metrics. We discuss the practicality of our results with a regional regression study; the analyses show how the metrics can be used to quantify the alterations to baseflow caused by urbanisation, and to determine baseflow restoration objectives for urbanised catchments based on pre‐development baseflow regime. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A 50-year record of nitrate concentrations in the Slapton Ley Catchment,Devon, United Kingdom

Slapton Ley, a coastal lake, is the largest natural body of fresh water in south-west England. There was concern in the 1960s that the lake was becoming increasingly eutrophic. To quantify inputs of water, sediment and nutrients into the lake, Slapton Ley Field Centre initiated a programme of weekly water quality sampling in September 1970. Of all the chemical properties which have been measured over the decades, the nitrate record has been the subject of more research than any other. The weekly monitoring has been supplemented by research projects aimed at understanding aspects of processes and patterns of nitrate delivery to the stream network. Three aspects of the nitrate record are reviewed: short-term process dynamics; the annual cycle of influent streams and the lake itself; and long-term trends. In the first two decades of monitoring, there was increasing concern about a trend of rising nitrate concentrations, an issue in most lowland rivers in the United Kingdom at the time. In the 1990s, nitrate concentrations levelled off and then have fallen steadily in recent years. In relation to eutrophication, there are clear signs of improvement in the influent streams, but concerns remain about water quality in the lake itself.