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A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge
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Yan Liu Yonghong Hao Yonghui Fan Tongke Wang Xueli Huo Youcun Liu Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258
The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
95.
Individual and combined effects of land use/cover and climate change on Wolf Bay watershed streamflow in southern Alabama
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Land use/cover (LULC) and climate change are two main factors affecting watershed hydrology. In this paper, individual and combined impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrologic processes were analysed applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool in a coastal Alabama watershed in USA. Temporally and spatially downscaled Global Circulation Model outputs predict a slight increase in precipitation in the study area, which is also projected to experience substantial urban growth in the future. Changes in flow frequency and volume in the 2030s (2016–2040) compared to a baseline period (1984–2008) at daily, monthly and annual time scales were explored. A redistribution of daily streamflow is projected when either climate or LULC change was considered. High flows are predicted to increase, while low flows are expected to decrease. Combined change effect results in a more noticeable and uneven distribution of daily streamflow. Monthly average streamflow and surface runoff are projected to increase in spring and winter, but especially in fall. LULC change does not have a significant effect on monthly average streamflow, but the change affects partitioning of streamflow, causing higher surface runoff and lower baseflow. The combined effect leads to a dramatic increase in monthly average streamflow with a stronger increasing trend in surface runoff and decreasing trend in baseflow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Yi--> Tian Wenbing Wu Guosheng Jiang M. Hesham El Naggar Guoxiong Mei Meijuan Xu Rongzhu Liang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(8):1170-1183
In engineering practice, a rapid loading rate can result in ground failure when the strength of soft soils is relatively low, and a multistage loading scheme is always utilized to deal with this situation. Firstly, under a multistage load and the continuous drainage boundary, an analytical solution of excess pore-water pressure and consolidation degree is obtained by virtue of the superposition formula of excess pore-water pressure, and a more general continuous drainage boundary under arbitrary time-dependent load is developed. Then, a comparison with existing analytical solutions is conducted to verify the present solution. A preliminary attempt on applying the continuous drainage boundary into the finite element model is made, and the feasibility of the numerical model for the one-dimensional consolidation under the continuous drainage boundary is verified by comparing the results calculated by FEM with that from present analytical solution. Finally, the consolidation behavior of soil is investigated in detail for different int erface parameters or loading scheme. The results show that, in land reclamation projects, a horizontal drain should be placed close to the boundary with a smaller interface parameter to improve the consolidation efficiency. The degree of consolidation is also related to the applied time-dependent load and interface parameters. 相似文献
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Hydrological cycle and water balance estimates for the megadune–lake region of the Badain Jaran Desert,China
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Yan‐Dong Ma Jing‐Bo Zhao Xiao‐Qing Luo Tian‐Jie Shao Zhi‐Bao Dong Qi Zhou 《水文研究》2017,31(18):3255-3268
The hydrology and water balance of megadunes and lakes have been investigated in the Badain Jaran Desert of China. Field observations and analyses of sand layer water content, field capacity, secondary salt content, and grain size reveal 3 types of important natural phenomenon: (a) vegetation bands on the leeward slope of the megadunes reflect the hydrological regime within the sandy vadose zone; (b) seepage, wet sand deposits, and secondary salt deposits indicate the pattern of water movement within the sandy vadose zone; (c) zones of groundwater seeps and descending springs around the lakes reflect the influence of the local topography on the hydrological regime of the megadunes. The seepage exposed on the sloping surface of the megadunes and gravity water contained within the sand layer confirm the occurrence of preferential flow within the vadose zone of the megadunes. Alternating layers of coarse and fine sand create the conditions for the formation of preferential flows. The preferential flows promote movement of water within the sand layer water that leads to deep penetration of water within the megadunes and ultimately to the recharging of groundwater and lake water. Our results indicate that a positive water balance promotes recharge of the megadunes, which depends on the high permeability of the megadune material, the shallow depth of the surface sand layer affected by evaporation, the occurrence of rainfall events exceeding 15 mm, and the sparse vegetation cover. Water balance estimates indicate that the annual water storage of the megadunes is about 7.5 mm, accounting for only 8% of annual precipitation; however, the shallow groundwater per unit area under the megadunes receives only 3.6% of annual precipitation, but it is still able to maintain a dynamic balance of the lake water. From a water budget perspective, the annual water storage in the megadunes is sufficient to serve as a recharge source for lake water, thereby enabling the long‐term persistence of the lakes. Overall, our findings demonstrate that precipitation is a significant component of the hydrological cycle in arid deserts. 相似文献
98.
An analytical study on three‐dimensional versus two‐dimensional water table‐induced flow patterns in a Tóthian basin
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Jun‐Zhi Wang Xiao‐Wei Jiang Zhi‐Yuan Zhang Li Wan Xu‐Sheng Wang Hailong Li 《水文研究》2017,31(22):4006-4018
Although it has been increasingly acknowledged that groundwater flow pattern is complicated in the three‐dimensional (3‐D) domain, two‐dimensional (2‐D) water table‐induced flow models are still widely used to delineate basin‐scale groundwater circulation. However, the validity of 2‐D cross‐sectional flow field induced by water table has been seldom examined. Here, we derive the analytical solution of 3‐D water table‐induced hydraulic head in a Tóthian basin and then examine the validity of 2‐D cross‐sectional models by comparing the flow fields of selected cross sections calculated by the 2‐D cross‐sectional model with those by the 3‐D model, which represents the “true” cases. For cross sections in the recharge or discharge area of the 3‐D basin, even if head difference is not significant, the 2‐D cross‐sectional models result in flow patterns absolutely different from the true ones. For the cross section following the principal direction of groundwater flow, although 2‐D cross‐sectional models would overestimate the penetrating depth of local flow systems and underestimate the recharge/discharge flux, the flow pattern from the cross‐sectional model is similar to the true one and could be close enough to the true one by adjusting the decay exponent and anisotropy ratio of permeability. Consequently, to determine whether a 2‐D cross‐sectional model is applicable, a comparison of hydraulic head difference between 2‐D and 3‐D solutions is not enough. Instead, the similarity of flow pattern should be considered to determine whether a cross‐sectional model is applicable. This study improves understanding of groundwater flow induced by more natural water table undulations in the 3‐D domain and the limitations of 2‐D models accounting for cross‐sectional water table undulation only. 相似文献
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