Differential piscivory of the native Percichthys trucha and exotic salmonids upon the native forage fish Galaxias maculatus in Patagonian Andean lakes

The present paper analyses predation patterns, of Percichthys trucha and salmonid fish upon Galaxias maculatus in five lakes of northern Patagonia with differing community and environmental characteristics. Tank experiments were performed to evaluate relative efficiency of native and exotic predators of G. maculatus under treatments with and without cover (aquatic vegetation). Important differences were found between predators with regards to distribution and consumption of G. maculatus. Salmonids are more efficient than P. trucha in consuming G. maculatus in deep environments with scarcely vegetation; in contrast to native species they frequently use the pelagic environment. Although pelagic habitat might have served in the past as a refuge from native predators in the past, G maculatus now experiences intense predation in the pelagic zone by exotic salmonids. It is suggested that the widespread distribution of G. maculatus in Patagonian lakes may have facilitated the success of salmonids throughout Patagonia.     

Rapid characterisation of the extremely large landslide threatening the Rules Reservoir (Southern Spain)

Landslides - When an active landslide is first identified in an artificial reservoir, a comprehensive study has to be quickly conducted to analyse the possible hazard that it may represent to such...     

An effective combined framework for modelling the time-dependent behaviour of soft structured clays

A constitutive framework for the simulation of the time-dependent behaviour of soft structured clays has been developed from the combination of a number of existing modelling approaches. The formulation accounts, in a natural way, for time-dependent phenomena such as loading rate dependency, stress relaxation, ageing, and creep deformations under constant load. In addition, the effect of structure is accounted for. To demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach, a specific model based on this framework is described and applied to the simulation of a number of relevant laboratory tests from the literature.

     

Evolution of the Galicia Interior Basin over the last 60 ka: sedimentary processes and palaeoceanographic implications

The Galicia Interior Basin (GIB; NW Iberian Peninsula) is located near a critical transition between the subtropical (temperate) and subpolar (cold) gyres of the North Atlantic. It therefore witnesses oceanographic changes driven by global climatic events. This study reports on the recent (latest Pleistocene) sedimentary, palaeoceanographic and palaeoclimatic history of the basin. We integrated analysis of deep‐sea sediment cores retrieved from an E–W transect across the GIB. The analysis indicated three types of sedimentary processes recording glacial (Marine Isotope Stage 2–4) and deglacial events: along‐slope bottom currents (forming contourite deposits), pelagic and hemipelagic sedimentation, and gravitational dislocation. Variation in depositional patterns and sedimentation rates indicate distinctive transport (along‐slope and down‐slope) and depositional processes. These in turn reflect climatic and oceanographic drivers. We interpret changes in sea level from core evidence showing changes in sediment supply. The cores exhibited conspicuous sedimentary evidence of Heinrich events (HEs). The stratigraphic intervals associated with HEs showed significant lateral variation. We suggest that the lateral variation may result from the development of an oceanographic boundary between surface water masses with different temperature and salinity parameters or changes in surface currents which may have introduced relatively warmer water into the GIB during the last glacial period.     

Calibration of imperfect models to biased observations

The problem of assimilating biased and inaccurate observations into inadequate models of the physical systems from which the observations were taken is common in the petroleum and groundwater fields. When large amounts of data are assimilated without accounting for model error and observation bias, predictions tend to be both overconfident and incorrect. In this paper, we propose a workflow for calibration of imperfect models to biased observations that involves model construction, model calibration, model criticism and model improvement. Model criticism is based on computation of model diagnostics which provide an indication of the validity of assumptions. During the model improvement step, we advocate identification of additional physically motivated parameters based on examination of data mismatch after calibration and addition of bias correction terms. If model diagnostics indicates the presence of residual model error after parameters have been added, then we advocate estimation of a “total” observation error covariance matrix, whose purpose is to reduce weighting of observations that cannot be matched because of deficiency of the model. Although the target applications of this methodology are in the subsurface, we illustrate the approach with two simplified examples involving prediction of the future velocity of fall of a sphere from models calibrated to a short-time series of biased measurements with independent additive random noise. The models into which the data are assimilated contain model errors due to neglect of physical processes and neglect of uncertainty in parameters. In every case, the estimated total error covariance is larger than the true observation covariance implying that the observations need not be matched to the accuracy of the measuring instrument. Predictions are much improved when all model improvement steps were taken.     

Petrological,geochemical, isotopic,and geochronological constraints for the Late Devonian–Early Carboniferous magmatism in SW Gondwana (27–32°LS): an example of geodynamic switching

International Journal of Earth Sciences - We report a study integrating 13 new U–Pb LA-MC-ICP-MS zircon ages and Hf-isotope data from dated magmatic zircons together with complete...     

Free advanced modeling and remote-sensing techniques for wetland watershed delineation and monitoring

Watershed scale studies focusing on hydrological pressures influencing freshwater ecosystem dynamics are necessary for the establishment of suitable wetland ecological indicators. Enhanced and reproducible methods for watershed modeling and land-cover assessment are thus essential tools for wetland monitoring and management. However, few integrated studies propose advanced open source methodologies for watershed modeling and assessment. In this study, a set of GIS methodological tools was applied and further developed in order to delineate wetland watersheds and map their land-cover changes over time. Watersheds draining to 11 semiarid Mediterranean saline wetlands were delimited and map algebra operations were applied on the digital elevation model in the Campo de Cartagena coastal plain to enhance watershed delimitation. land-use/land-cover maps of wetland watersheds were obtained for years 1987 and 2008 by means of supervised classification of Landsat images. A set of four spectral indices was included in the classification analysis using a combination of bands in order to improve the discrimination of vegetation, water bodies, infrastructure, and bare soil. An iterative classification procedure based on maximum likelihood and random selection of training areas was applied. Contextual information based on automatic image segmentation of Landsat scenes was also included as ancillary layers. Watershed areas obtained ranged from 70 to 17,000 ha and delineation was improved in the Campo de Cartagena coastal plain. The proposed image classification methodology showed high accuracies and improved standard classification techniques. The proposed methodology is based on free and open source tools, which makes it broadly applicable.     

Dams in the last large free-flowing rivers of Patagonia,the Santa Cruz River,environmental features,and macroinvertebrate community

Three large rivers have their headwaters in the Patagonian Ice Fields (PIFs) in the Andes Mountains, the largest mid-latitude ice masses on Earth: Santa Cruz, Baker and Pascua. They are the last large free flowing rivers in Patagonia, but plans are advanced for building dams for hydroelectric power generation. The three PIF rivers, with a discharge dominated by ice melt, share a common, unique hydrograph compared to that of the other eight large rivers in the region: a distinct seasonal cycle, and an extremely stable discharge, with much lower variability than other rivers. In this study we present the first extensive survey of habitats and benthic macroinvertebrates in the least studied system, the Santa Cruz River. We assess how much of the natural capital provided and sustained by benthic invertebrates are expected to be lost by flooding and discuss how dams would affect riverine habitat and biota. In the Santa Cruz River, we conducted an intensive field survey during September 2010; a total of 52 sites located at regular 6 km intervals were sampled along the 310 river-km for macroinvertebrates and seventeen habitat variables. Although some habitat structure is apparent at the local scale, the Santa Cruz River could be described as very homogeneous. Macroinvertebrate density and the richness (38 genera) found in the Santa Cruz River resulted to be one of the lowest in comparison with 42 other Patagonian rivers. Albeit weak, the structure of the macroinvertebrates assemblages was successfully described by a reduced set of variables. The reduced flow variation and the lack of bed scouring flows have a direct and negative effect on the heterogeneity of riverbeds and banks. The high turbidity of the Santa Cruz River may also contribute to shorter food webs, by affecting autotrophic production, general trophic structure, and overall macroinvertebrate productivity and diversity. Dams will obliterate 51% of the lotic environment, including the most productive sections of the river according to our macroinvertebrate data. Since Santa Cruz River has a naturally homogeneous flow cycle, dams may provide more variable flows and more diverse habitat. Our data provide critically valuable baseline information to understand the effects of dams on the unique set of glacial driven large rivers of Patagonia.     

Temporal evolution of lead isotope ratios in sediments of the Central Portuguese Margin: A fingerprint of human activities

Stable Pb isotope ratios (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb, ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁶Pb), ²¹⁰Pb, Pb, Al, Ca, Fe, Mn and Si concentrations were measured in 7 sediment cores from the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula to assess the Pb contamination throughout the last 200 years. Independently of their locations, all cores are characterized by increasing Pb/Al rends not related to grain-size changes. Conversely, decreasing trends of ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb were found towards the present. This tendency suggest a change in Pb sources reflecting an increased proportion derived from anthropogenic activities. The highest anthropogenic Pb inventories for sediments younger than 1950s were found in the two shallowest cores of Cascais and Lisboa submarine canyons, reflecting the proximity of the Tagus estuary. Lead isotope signatures also help demonstrate that sediments contaminated with Pb are not constrained to estuarine–coastal areas and upper parts of submarine canyons, but are also to transferred to a lesser extent to deeper parts of the Portuguese Margin.     

Modelling radar-rainfall estimation uncertainties using elliptical and Archimedean copulas with different marginal distributions

Abstract

Given that radar-based rainfall has been broadly applied in hydrological studies, quantitative modelling of its uncertainty is critically important, as the error of input rainfall is the main source of error in hydrological modelling. Using an ensemble of rainfall estimates is an elegant solution to characterize the uncertainty of radar-based rainfall and its spatial and temporal variability. This paper has fully formulated an ensemble generator for radar precipitation estimation based on the copula method. Each ensemble member is a probable realization that represents the unknown true rainfall field based on the distribution of radar rainfall (RR) error and its spatial error structure. An uncertainty model consisting of a deterministic component and a random error factor is presented based on the distribution of gauge rainfall conditioned on the radar rainfall (GR|RR). Two kinds of copulas (elliptical and Archimedean copulas) are introduced to generate random errors, which are imposed by the deterministic component. The elliptical copulas (e.g. Gaussian and t-copula) generate the random errors based on the multivariate distribution, typically of decomposition of the error correlation matrix using the LU decomposition algorithm. The Archimedean copulas (e.g. Clayton and Gumbel) utilize the conditional dependence between different radar pixels to obtain random errors. Based on those, a case application is carried out in the Brue catchment located in southwest England. The results show that the simulated uncertainty bands of rainfall encompass most of the reference raingauge measurements with good agreement between the simulated and observed spatial dependences. This indicates that the proposed scheme is a statistically reliable method in ensemble radar rainfall generation and is a useful tool for describing radar rainfall uncertainty.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi