On some aspects of peaks-over-threshold modeling of floods under nonstationarity using climate covariates

This paper discusses some aspects of flood frequency analysis using the peaks-over-threshold model with Poisson arrivals and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes under nonstationarity, using climate covariates. The discussion topics were motivated by a case study on the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the flood regime in the Itajaí river basin, in Southern Brazil. The Niño3.4 (DJF) index is used as a covariate in nonstationary estimates of the Poisson and GP distributions scale parameters. Prior to the positing of parametric dependence functions, a preliminary data-driven analysis was carried out using nonparametric regression models to estimate the dependence of the parameters on the covariate. Model fits were evaluated using asymptotic likelihood ratio tests, AIC, and Q–Q plots. Results show statistically significant and complex dependence relationships with the covariate on both nonstationary parameters. The nonstationary flood hazard measure design life level (DLL) was used to compare the relative performances of stationary and nonstationary models in quantifying flood hazard over the period of records. Uncertainty analyses were carried out in every step of the application using the delta method.     

Resolution of GPR bowtie antennas: An experimental approach

Since target reflections directly depend on the emitted pulse characteristics, a key factor for carrying out a successful GPR survey is to know as much as possible about the transmission features of the antennas used. This information is very important in order to choose the right antennas and set the appropriate configuration parameters for a specific survey. With this in mind this paper deals with the development of a set of laboratory experiments on the resolution capabilities of three bowtie antennas at frequencies of 500, 800 and 1000 MHz. Results from these measurements give a first estimation of the resolution of the antennas under test, showing the advantage of performing experiments rather than relying only on theoretical assumptions. The results are also expressed in terms of the central wavelength for each antenna and compared with some theoretical estimations proposed in the specialized bibliography.     

A simplified approach for flood vulnerability assessment of historic sites

In the last decades, floods have increased in frequency all over the world due to diverse phenomena such as climate change, extended urbanization, land use, etc. Their social, cultural, economic and environmental impacts have also grown significantly, highlighting the need for the development of further studies and improved methods to manage and mitigate flood risk, mainly in urban areas. Historic sites need particular attention in this field, not only because the high and irreplaceable cultural value of these areas, but also taking into account that the constructive typologies that they host are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards. In consequence of that, the analysis of the phenomena, the evaluation of their consequences and the adoption of adequate mitigation and preparedness measures are presently a fundamental societal challenge. Having this in mind, the present paper aims at proposing an innovative methodology focused on the assessment of flood vulnerability in historic sites through the evaluation of a set of exposure and sensitivity indicators. From the analysis of these indicators, it is possible to obtain a Flood Vulnerability Index capable of measuring the spread of flood vulnerability over an extended area. The historic centre of Guimarães, in Portugal, declared by UNESCO as a World Heritage Site in 2001, is used here as a pilot case study to apply and discusses the preliminary version of the approach. Although some improvements are still needed, this approach can be already used to provides preliminary vulnerability scenarios and to point the way to the definition of more efficient and customized strategies for managing and mitigating flood risk in historic sites. Moreover, with further improvements and calibrations resorting to larger and more diverse data, it will be possible to reduce some of the uncertainties currently involved in the assessment process and to make its application wider and more robust.

     

Triassic synthems of southern South America (southwestern Gondwana) and the Western Caucasus (the northern Neotethys), and global tracing of their boundaries

Global tracing of the key surfaces of Triassic deposits may contribute significantly to the understanding of the common patterns in their accumulation. We attempt to define synthems – disconformity-bounded sedimentary complexes – in the Triassic successions of southern South America (southwestern Gondwana, Brazil and Argentina) and the Western Caucasus (the northern Neotethys, Russia), and then to trace their boundaries in the adjacent regions and globally. In southern South America, a number of synthems have been recognized – the Cuyo Basin: the Río Mendoza–Cerro de las Cabras Synthem (Olenekian–Ladinian) and the Potrerillos–Cacheuta–Río Blanco Synthem (Carnian–Rhaetian); the Ischigualasto Basin: the Ischichuca-Los Rastros Synthem (Anisian–Ladinian) and the Ischigualasto–Los Colorados Synthem (Carnian–Rhaetian); the Chaco–Paraná Basin: the Sanga do Cabral Synthem (Induan), the Santa Maria 1 Synthem (Ladinian), the Santa Maria 2 Synthem (Carnian), and the Caturrita Synthem (Norian); western Argentina: the Talampaya Synthem (Lower Triassic) and the Tarjados Synthem (Olenekian?). In the Western Caucasus, three common synthems have been distinguished: WC-1 (Induan–Anisian), WC-2 (uppermost Anisian–Carnian), and WC-3 (Norian–lower Rhaetian). The lower boundary of WC-1 corresponds to a hiatus whose duration seems to be shorter than that previously postulated. The synthem boundaries that are common to southwestern Gondwana and the Western Caucasus lie close to the base and top of the Triassic. The Lower Triassic, Ladinian, and Upper Triassic disconformities are traced within the studied basins of southern South America, and the first two are also established in South Africa. The Upper Triassic disconformity is only traced within the entire Caucasus, whereas all synthem boundaries established in the Western Caucasus are traced partly within Europe. In general, the synthem boundaries recognized in southern South America and the Western Caucasus are correlated to the global Triassic sequence boundaries and sea-level falls. Although regional peculiarities are superimposed on the appearance of global events in the Triassic synthem architecture, the successful global tracing suggests that planetary-scale mechanisms of synthem formation existed and that they were active in regions dominated by both marine and non-marine sedimentation.     

In-Well Degassing of Monitoring Wells Completed in Gas-Charged Aquifers

Total dissolved gas pressure (P_TDG) measurements are useful to measure accurate in situ dissolved gas concentrations in groundwater, but challenged by in-well degassing. Although in-well degassing has been widely observed, its cause(s) are not clear. We investigated the mechanism(s) by which gas-charged groundwater in a recently pumped well becomes degassed. Vertical P_TDG and dissolved gas concentration profiles were monitored in the standing water column (SWC) of a groundwater well screened in a gas-charged aquifer for 7 days before and 15 days after pumping. Prior to pumping, P_TDG values remained relatively constant and below calculated bubbling pressure (P_BUB) at all depths. In contrast, significant increases in P_TDG were observed at all depths after pumping was initiated, as fresh groundwater with elevated in situ P_TDG values was pumped through the well screen. After pumping ceased, P_TDG values decreased to below P_BUB at all depths over the 15-day post-pumping period, indicating well degassing was active over this time frame. Vertical profiles of estimated dissolved gas concentrations before and after pumping provided insight into the mechanism(s) by which in-well degassing occurred in the SWC. During both monitoring periods, downward mixing of dominant atmospheric and/or tracer gases, and upwards mixing of dominant groundwater gases were observed in the SWC. The key mechanisms responsible for in-well degassing were (i) bubble exsolution when P_TDG exceeded P_BUB as gas-charged well water moves upwards in the SWC during recovery (i.e., hydraulic gradient driven convection), (ii) microadvection caused by the upward migration of bubbles under buoyancy, and (iii) long-term, thermally driven vertical convection.     

Comparison of surface wind stress characteristics over the Tropical Atlantic (10°N–40°S) in fields derived from the UWM/COADS, NCEP/NCAR and QuikSCAT datasets

A comparison of monthly wind stress derived from winds of NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis and UWM/COADS (The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee/Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set) dataset (1950–1993), and of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and satellite-based QuikSCAT dataset (2000–2006), is made over the South Atlantic (10°N–40°S). On a mean seasonal scale, the comparison shows that these three wind stress datasets have qualitatively similar patterns. Quantitatively, in general, from about the equator to 20°S in the mid-Atlantic the wind stress values are stronger in NCEP/NCAR data than those in UWM/COADS data. On the other hand, in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) area the wind stress values in NCEP/NCAR data are slightly weaker than those in UWM/COADS data. In the South Atlantic, between 20° S–40°S, the QuikSCAT dataset presents complex circulation structures which are not present in NCEP/NCAR and UWM/COADS data. The wind stress is used in a numerical ocean model to simulate ocean currents, which are compared to a drifting-buoy observed climatology. The modeled South Equatorial Current agrees better with observations between March–May and June–August. Between December–February, the South Equatorial Current from UWM/COADS and QuikSCAT experiments is stronger and more developed than that from NCEP/NCAR experiment. The Brazil Current, in turn, is better represented in the QuikSCAT experiment. Comparison of the annual migration of ITCZ at 20° and 30°W in UWM/COADS and NCEP/NCAR data sources show that the southernmost position of ITCZ at 30°W in February, March and April coincides with the rainy season in NE Brazil, while the northernmost position of ITCZ at 20°W in August coincides with the maximum rainfall of Northwest Africa.     

Nekton use of salt marsh creeks in the upper Tejo estuary

The use of the Tejo estuary, Portugal, salt marsh creeks by nekton was examined based on sampling surveys with a fyke net from September 1998 until August 2001. From the 20 taxa (14 fish species, 5 decapod crustacean species, and 1 cephalopod species) identified in the studied creeks, 16 were regularly caught throughout the sampling period. The shrimpPalaemonetes varians was the most numerically abundant species in the creeks, while the biomass was dominated by the mulletLiza ramada. The nekton assemblage was mainly represented by marine-estuarine opportunist species, comprising 85% of the total. A high seasonality was detected on the species abundance patterns: the most abundant species (P. varians, Crangon crangon, L. ramada, Pomatoschistus microps, Syngnathus sp., andAnguilla anguilla) occurred throughout the sampling period,Sardina pilchardus, Dicentrarchus, labrax, andAtherina boyeri were particularly abundant in spring and summer, andEngraulis encrasicholus, Liza aurata, Gambusia holbrooki, Palaemon longirostris, andPalaemon serratus were most abundant in autumn and winter.L. ramada occurred in the tidal creeks in high numbers during neap tides, while the majority of the remaining taxa were most abundant during spring tides, suggesting a differential pattern of habitat use occording to species.     

Quantifying the local influence at a tall tower site in nocturnal conditions

The influence of the local terrestrial environment on nocturnal atmospheric CO₂ measurements at a 329-m television transmitter tower (and a component of a CO₂ monitoring network) was estimated with a tracer release experiment and a subsequent simulation of the releases. This was done to characterize the vertical transport of emissions from the surface to the uppermost tower level and how it is affected by atmospheric stability. The tracer release experiment was conducted over two nights in May of 2009 near the Department of Energy’s Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina. Tracer was released on two contrasting nights—slightly stable and moderately stable—from several upwind surface locations. Measurements at the 329-m level on both nights indicate that tracer was able to mix vertically within a relatively short (～24 km) distance, implying that nocturnal stable conditions do not necessarily prevent vertical dispersion in the boundary layer and that CO₂ measurements at the tower are at least partly influenced by nearby emissions. A simulation of the tracer release is used to calculate the tower footprint on the two nights to estimate the degree to which the local domain affects the tower readings. The effect of the nocturnal boundary layer on the area sampled by the tower can be seen clearly, as the footprints were affected by changes in stability. The contribution of local sources to the measurements at the tower was minimal, however, suggesting that nocturnal concentrations at upper levels are contributed mostly by regional sources.