Assessing the potential impact of climate change on the UK’s electricity network

We investigate how weather affects the UK’s electricity network, by examining past data of weather-related faults on the transmission and distribution networks. By formalising the current relationship between weather-related faults and weather, we use climate projections from a regional climate model (RCM) to quantitatively assess how the frequency of these faults may change in the future. This study found that the incidences of both lightning and solar heat faults are projected to increase in the future. There is evidence that the conditions that cause flooding faults may increase in the future, but a reduction cannot be ruled out. Due to the uncertainty associated with future wind projections, there is no clear signal associated with the future frequency of wind and gale faults, however snow, sleet and blizzard faults are projected to decrease due to a reduction in the number of snow days.     

Synergies and trade-offs between adaptation,mitigation and development

To succeed in meeting carbon emissions reduction targets to limit projected climate change impacts, it is imperative that improved synergies be developed between mitigation and adaptation strategies. This is especially important in development policy among remote indigenous communities, where demands for development have often not been accompanied by commensurate efforts to respond to future climate change impacts. Here we explore how mitigation and adaptation pathways can be combined to transform rural indigenous communities toward sustainability. Case studies from communities in Alaska and Nepal are introduced to illustrate current and potential synergies and trade-offs and how these might be harnessed to maximize beneficial outcomes. The adaptation pathways approach and a framework for transformational adaptation are proposed to unpack these issues and develop understanding of how positive transformational change can be supported.     

Distribution of local Cs anomalies on the seafloor near the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant

An estimated 3.5 ± 0.7 × 10¹⁵ Bq of ¹³⁷Cs is thought to have been discharged into the ocean following the melt down at Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (F1NPP). While efforts have been made to monitor seafloor radiation levels, the sampling techniques used cannot capture the continuous distribution of radionuclides. In this work, we apply in situ measurement techniques using a towed gamma ray spectrometer to map the continuous distribution of ¹³⁷Cs on the seafloor within 20 km of the F1NPP. The results reveal the existence of local ¹³⁷Cs anomalies, with levels of ¹³⁷Cs an order of magnitude higher than the surrounding seafloors. The sizes of the anomalies mapped in this work range from a few meters to a few hundreds of meters in length, and it is demonstrated that the distribution of these anomalies is strongly influenced by meter scale features of the terrain.     

Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500�C2100: 600?years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands

In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005?C2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al. 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs. The land-use harmonization strategy estimates fractional land-use patterns and underlying land-use transitions annually for the time period 1500?C2100 at 0.5°?×?0.5° resolution. Inputs include new gridded historical maps of crop and pasture data from HYDE 3.1 for 1500?C2005, updated estimates of historical national wood harvest and of shifting cultivation, and future information on crop, pasture, and wood harvest from the IAM implementations of the RCPs for the period 2005?C2100. The computational method integrates these multiple data sources, while minimizing differences at the transition between the historical reconstruction ending conditions and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve the future changes depicted by the IAMs at the grid cell level. This study for the first time harmonizes land-use history data together with future scenario information from multiple IAMs into a single consistent, spatially gridded, set of land-use change scenarios for studies of human impacts on the past, present, and future Earth system.     

Pastures of plenty?: Land rights and community-based agriculture in Peddie,a former homeland town in South Africa

The post-apartheid South African government has emphasized land reallocation in key national policy documents as a means to address apartheid-era legacies of poverty and inequality in the former homelands (black reserves). In this paper, a case study of the Masizame Community Garden Project in Peddie, a small former homeland town, explores the issue of group ownership rights of commonage for poverty alleviation purposes. Poor communication, commitment to gender empowerment and limited transparency of land application processes at different levels of government emerged as key issues that continue to frustrate attempts by local people to secure ownership rights of vacant municipal commonage to earn a livelihood.     

Colonisation of the Krakatau islands by invertebrates

Arrival of invertebrates on the Krakatau islands, and the development of invertebrate assemblages there since 1883, are reviewed. Many data are imprecise, and difficulties of interpretation are outlined. A few well-known groups, such as butterflies, are used to suggest that much colonisation so far has been by relatively generalist species,and that the rate of addition of new species may become slower as the less vagile specialists characteristic of later successional vegetation may find natural colonisation harder. Studies of the assemblages developing in association with particular plant species are likely to be helpful in assessing future trends of invertebrate colonisation.     

Using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis to assess climate variability for the European wind industry

We characterise the long-term variability of European near-surface wind speeds using 142 years of data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), and consider the potential of such long-baseline climate data sets for wind energy applications. The low resolution of the 20CR would severely restrict its use on its own for wind farm site-screening. We therefore perform a simple statistical calibration to link it to the higher-resolution ERA-Interim data set (ERAI), such that the adjusted 20CR data has the same wind speed distribution at each location as ERAI during their common period. Using this corrected 20CR data set, wind speeds and variability are characterised in terms of the long-term mean, standard deviation and corresponding trends. Many regions of interest show extremely weak trends on century timescales, but contain large multidecadal variability. Since reanalyses such as ERAI are often used to provide the background climatology for wind farm site assessments, but contain only a few decades of data, our results can be used as a way of incorporating decadal-scale wind climate variability into such studies, allowing investment risks for wind farms to be reduced.     

Zero-G Class Underwater Robots: Unrestricted Attitude Control Using Control Moment Gyros

The "Zero-G" is designated as a new class of underwater robot that is capable of unrestricted attitude control. A novel control scheme based on internal actuation using control moment gyros (CMGs) is developed to provide Zero-G class autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) with this unique freedom in control. This is implemented in the CMG-actuated Zero-G class internal kinematic underwater robot actuation (IKURA) system that was developed as part of this research. A series of experiments are performed to demonstrate the practical application of CMGs and verify the associated theoretical developments. The ability to actively stabilize the translational dynamics of the robot is assessed and unrestricted attitude control is demonstrated in an experiment that involves vertically pitched diving and surfacing in surge. Finally, potential applications for Zero-G class AUVs are discussed.     

Rip currents, mega-cusps, and eroding dunes

Dune erosion is shown to occur at the embayment of beach mega-cusps O(200 m alongshore) that are associated with rip currents. The beach is the narrowest at the embayment of the mega-cusps allowing the swash of large storm waves coincident with high tides to reach the toe of the dune, to undercut the dune and to cause dune erosion. Field measurements of dune, beach, and rip current morphology are acquired along an 18 km shoreline in southern Monterey Bay, California. This section of the bay consists of a sandy shoreline backed by extensive dunes, rising to heights exceeding 40 m. There is a large increase in wave height going from small wave heights in the shadow of a headland, to the center of the bay where convergence of waves owing to refraction over the Monterey Bay submarine canyon results in larger wave heights. The large alongshore gradient in wave height results in a concomitant alongshore gradient in morphodynamic scale. The strongly refracted waves and narrow bay aperture result in near normal wave incidence, resulting in well-developed, persistent rip currents along the entire shoreline.

The alongshore variations of the cuspate shoreline are found significantly correlated with the alongshore variations in rip spacing at 95% confidence. The alongshore variations of the volume of dune erosion are found significantly correlated with alongshore variations of the cuspate shoreline at 95% confidence. Therefore, it is concluded the mega-cusps are associated with rip currents and that the location of dune erosion is associated with the embayment of the mega-cusp.